Horizon Capital Increase & Three AI Chip Companies Comparison

I will analyze the deep meaning behind Horizon’s capital increase and compare the three AI chip companies from three dimensions: strategic layout, competitive advantages, and valuation logic.

The registered capital of Horizon’s Shanghai subsidiary increased from 4 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, a 50% increase. This significant capital increase occurred after the company’s listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (stock code: 09660.HK), reflecting the following strategic intentions:

• Journey 6 Series Mass Production Preparation
  : Support the mass production of J6P chips (560 TOPS computing power). Under 1/2 sparse network, the equivalent computing power of this chip reaches 560 TOPS, surpassing NVIDIA Orin X’s 254 TOPS [1]
• Process Technology Breakthrough
  : Moving from 16nm to 7nm process, forming a echelon competition with Huawei MDC610 (400 TOPS) and NVIDIA Thor-Super (2000 TOPS) [1]
• Continuous Increase in R&D Investment
  : 2024 R&D expenditure reached 3.156 billion yuan, accounting for 132.4% of revenue, far exceeding the industry average [2]

• Market Share Breakthrough
  : Over 40% market share in China’s ADAS market, ranking second among independent third-party suppliers [2]
• Ecosystem Partner Expansion
  : The Journey 6 series is expected to be installed in more than 100 mid-to-high-end intelligent driving models, establishing in-depth cooperation with BYD, Chery, SAIC Group, Volkswagen Group, etc. [3]
• Cumulative Shipment Target
  : Plan to achieve cumulative shipments exceeding 10 million units in 2025, becoming the first autonomous driving chip company in China to reach this milestone [2]

• “Journey 6 Chip + Tian Gong Kai Wu Toolchain + Ta Ge Middleware” Technical Moat
  : Energy efficiency ratio reaches 5.6 TOPS/W, meeting full-stack needs from low-level to high-level intelligent driving [2]
• Horizon SuperDrive Solution
  : Expected to achieve large-scale mass production in Q3 2025, promoting transformation from a chip supplier to a full-stack solution provider [2]
• Growth of Authorization and Service Business
  : In 2024, this business revenue reached 1.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, accounting for 69.1%, becoming the core engine driving revenue growth [2]

• Response to International Giants
  : NVIDIA Drive Orin-X installed 1.554 million units (32.6% market share), Tesla FSD chips 1.0131 million units (26.8% market share), together accounting for nearly 60% [3]
• Localization Advantage
  : Horizon, relying on localized services and technology ecosystem, forms a “twin stars” pattern with NVIDIA in the Chinese market [4]
• Geopolitical Factors
  : U.S. restrictions on advanced process chips accelerate domestic chip replacement, and Horizon’s capital increase is also an active response to this trend

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• Focus Area
  : 100% focus on automotive intelligent driving, non-automotive business revenue accounts for only 3% [2]
• Product Coverage
  : From Journey 2 (4 TOPS) to Journey6P (560 TOPS), achieving full-scenario coverage from L2 to L4 [1]
• Mass Production Scale
  : 2024 product delivery volume reached 2.9 million units, cumulative 7.7 million units [2]

• Core Products
  : Si Yuan 290/370 series for cloud training; Si Yuan590 is under development with maximum computing power of 256 TOPS [5]
• Process Advantage
  : Adopts 7nm process; Si Yuan370 is Cambricon’s first AI chip using chiplet technology [5]
• Financial Performance
  : 2024 revenue 633 million yuan, net profit margin 33.53%, gross margin 65.2% [0]
• Valuation Level
  : Market capitalization 585 billion yuan, P/E ratio 311.9x, P/S ratio 924x [0]

• Product Series
  : Huashan series high-computing SoC (autonomous driving) and Wudang series cross-domain SoC (cockpit and driving integration) [6]
• Shipment Scale
  : By the end of 2023, Huashan series chips had a total shipment of over 152,000 units, accounting for 7.2% of China’s high-computing SoC market [6]
• Financial Pressure
  : H1 2024 revenue 31 million yuan, down 48.7% YoY; gross margin dropped from 50.0% to 24.8% [7]

Dimension	Horizon	Cambricon	Black Sesame Intelligence
Flagship Chip	Journey6P (560 TOPS)	Si Yuan370 (256 TOPS)	Huashan A2000 (250+ TOPS)
Process Technology	16nm/7nm	7nm	16nm
Mass Production Status	Mass-produced (2.9 million units)	In R&D	Mass-produced (152,000 units)
Core Technology	BPU Architecture (4th iteration)	Chiplet Technology	Self-developed ISP and NPU

:

• Horizon Journey6P’s 560 TOPS computing power is actually far higher than the combined computing power of 4 Orin chips (limited by in-vehicle Ethernet bandwidth, the computing power of 4 Orin chips is only 1.2x that of a single Orin, about 300 TOPS) [1]
• Cambricon has first-mover advantage in cloud training market, but faces fierce competition from Huawei Ascend, Hygon Information, etc. [5]
• Black Sesame Intelligence’s Wudang series is the first domestic cockpit-driving integrated chip, but the mass production progress after the 2024 A2000 launch still needs to be observed [6]

• Authorization Model
  : Through IP licensing and technical service output, the gross margin of authorization and service business reached 92% in 2024 [2]
• Ecosystem Cooperation
  : Over 50 ecosystem partners launched pre-mass production products based on Journey6E/M [1]
• Deep Customer Binding
  : Accounts for 79.44% share in Li Auto Pro version, but also shows certain customer dependence [8]

• Revenue Structure
  : Q3 2024 revenue 173 million USD, mainly from cloud training chips and edge computing products [0]
• Market Position
  : Leading position in domestic cloud AI chip market, but faces “winner takes all” market pattern [9]

• Cooperation Model
  : Cooperates with leading customers like Geely, BYD, Dongfeng, FAW, but does not disclose specific fixed-model quantities [7]
• Challenges
  : Gross margin dropped sharply by 25.2 percentage points to 24.8%, reflecting fierce price competition and insufficient scale effect [7]

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Company	Market Cap (100 million yuan)	P/S Ratio	P/E Ratio	Profit Status
Horizon	520	21.8x	N/A	Loss
Cambricon	5,850	924x	311.9x	Profit
Black Sesame Intelligence	46	148x	N/A	Loss

• High Growth Expectation
  : 2024 revenue growth 53.6%, three-year CAGR 72.19% [2]
• Market Space
  : China’s ADAS market is expected to increase from 1.9747 million units (penetration rate 8.62%) in 2024 to 5-6 million units (penetration rate 30%) in 2025 [2]
• Technology Premium
  : 77.3% gross margin (exceeding NVIDIA’s 60-70%) reflects high proportion of soft revenue and large-scale mass production capability [2]
• Valuation Rationality
  : P/S 21.8x is relatively reasonable compared to high growth and leading market share

• Mystery of High PE
  : 311.9x PE reflects market’s optimistic expectation for its long-term profitability [0]
• Excessively High PS
  : 924x PS far exceeds Horizon, mainly due to:
  • A-share liquidity premium (2024 stock price increase 356.62%) [0]
  • Cloud AI chip market dominated by NVIDIA (82.5% global share), huge domestic replacement space [3]
  • Presence of competitors like Huawei Ascend, Hygon Information limits its pricing power [5]
• Valuation Risk
  : 2024 free cash flow -1.984 billion yuan, facing capital pressure [0]

• Market Cap Shrinkage
  : From nearly 30 billion yuan in private equity financing to 15 billion HKD (about 13.5 billion yuan) [5]
• PS148x Still High
  : Considering 48.7% revenue decline and sharp gross margin drop, valuation support is insufficient [7]
• Stagnant Growth
  : Revenue decline, gross margin drop, and difficulty in customer development reflect its “difficult to expand customers” dilemma [7]

• Horizon: Journey6 mass production is imminent, leading market share, high growth certainty
• Cambricon: Benefits from AI computing power demand growth, but overvaluation needs performance digestion
• Black Sesame Intelligence: Faces performance pressure and intensified competition, need to observe A2000 mass production progress

• Horizon: Integrated software and hardware ecosystem completed, expected to become “China’s Mobileye”
• Cambricon: Fierce competition in cloud AI chip market, need to break through encirclement by Huawei, Hygon, etc.
• Black Sesame Intelligence: If cockpit-driving integration trend is established, there is reversal possibility, but risk is high

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: Support Journey6 series mass production and Horizon SuperDrive solution launch
: Consolidate over 40% share in China’s ADAS market, respond to competition from NVIDIA and Huawei
: Lay foundation for cumulative 10 million shipments in 2025 and global layout

:

• First echelon
  : NVIDIA (32.6% market share), Tesla (26.8%)
• Domestic leading
  : Horizon (8.0% market share), Huawei (9.6% market share) [3]
• Catch-up
  : Black Sesame Intelligence, Xuchip Technology, etc.

:

• Horizon: Journey6 series mass production progress and customer expansion
• Cambricon: Si Yuan590 R&D progress and market share increase
• Black Sesame Intelligence: A2000 mass production progress and gross margin recovery

: Increase holdings. As China’s intelligent driving chip leader, it has established comprehensive advantages in technology, market, and ecosystem; 21.8x PS has allocation value.

: Wait and see. 924x PS is overvalued; need to wait for performance to digest valuation or stock price to回调 to reasonable range.

: Cautious wait and see. Faces performance decline and intensified competition;建议 wait for A2000 mass production launch and gross margin recovery signals.

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[0] 金灵API数据 - 寒武纪(688256.SS)公司概况、财务分析、股价数据
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