Impact Analysis of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) Clinical Data Release

• Current Stock Price:
  $46.73 (as of January 4, 2026 close) [0]
• Market Capitalization:
  $4.43 billion [0]
• 52-Week Range:
  $24.10 - $53.41 [0]
• Quarterly Performance:
  6-month gain +60.81%, 3-year gain +168.72% [0]

• Rating:
  Strong Buy (94.4% of analysts gave Buy rating) [0]
• Median Target Price:
  $82.00, representing a 75.5% upside from current stock price [0]
• Target Price Range:
  $36 - $143 [0]

• Current Ratio:
  15.12 (indicating strong liquidity) [0]
• Debt Risk:
  Low [0]
• Cash Position:
  As of Q3 2025, the company has sufficient cash to support operations and R&D investments [0]

• First FDA-approved
  once-daily oral somatostatin receptor agonist for the treatment of adult acromegaly (approved in 2025) [1][2]
• Innovation Advantages:
  Compared to traditional injectable drugs (e.g., Octreotide, Lanreotide), PALSONIFY offers oral convenience, significantly improving patient compliance [1][2]
• Expanded Indications:
  CAREFNDR Phase 3 trial is ongoing for the treatment of Carcinoid Syndrome [1]

• Acromegaly Market:
  The global somatostatin analogs market is expected to reach $14.32 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 8.04% [3]
• Carcinoid Syndrome:
  As a key treatment area for neuroendocrine tumors (NET), it accounts for the largest share of the somatostatin analogs market [3]
• Competitive Landscape:
  The current market is dominated by injectables (Novartis’ Sandostatin, Ipsen’s Somatuline), and oral formulations will create a new niche market [3]

• Achieved $14 million in license revenue in Q3 2025 [0]
• Investment banks like Piper Sandler expect PALSONIFY to achieve rapid commercial growth in 2026 [1]
• Analysts predict the product’s peak sales could reach hundreds of millions of dollars

• First-in-class Mechanism:
  The world’s first
  oral small-molecule ACTH receptor antagonist
  to enter late-stage clinical development [1][4]
• Indication:
  Classic Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (Classic CAH) [1][4]
• Orphan Drug Designation:
  Granted orphan drug status by the U.S. FDA, enjoying market exclusivity and tax incentives [4]

• Significant Improvement in Biomarkers:
  Rapid, sustained, and statistically significant reduction in key CAH disease biomarkers, including androstenedione (A4) and 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP) [1][4]
• Clinical Benefits:
  Improvement in multiple clinical indicators such as reduced adrenal size and restored menstruation [4]
• Unique Dual Endpoints:
  The CALM-CAH Phase 3 trial is designed with unique endpoints to simultaneously evaluate normalization of adrenal androgen levels and reduction in glucocorticoid dosage [4]

• CAH Market Size:
  The global CAH treatment market is expected to reach $660 million by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.1% [5]
• Unmet Medical Needs:
  Current treatments mainly rely on steroid hormone replacement, which has significant long-term side effects; patients urgently need non-steroidal treatment options [5]
• Market Gap:
  There has been a lack of innovation in CAH treatment over the past few decades; Atumelnant is expected to be the first targeted therapy addressing the pathological mechanism of CAH [5]

• Phase 3 Initiation:
  The pivotal CALM-CAH Phase 3 trial completed first patient dosing on December 11, 2025 [4]
• Cohort 4 Data:
  Topline data from Phase 2 Cohort 4 will be announced soon [1]

1. PALSONIFY Commercialization Update:
   • Initial market performance post-launch
   • Prescription volume and insurance coverage progress
   • Sales channel development status

2. Atumelnant Phase 2 Cohort 4 Data:
   • Detailed data on biomarker improvement
   • Dose-response relationship
   • Safety data update
   • Provide basis for Phase 3 trial design

• January 13, 2026:
  Participate in the 44th J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference [1]
• February 26, 2026:
  Q4 FY2025 earnings release, expected EPS -$1.35 [0]
• 2026-2027:
  Data readouts from CAREFNDR Phase 3 (Carcinoid Syndrome) and CALM-CAH Phase 3 (CAH)

• Between October-December 2025
  the stock price rose from $41.50 to $46.55, an increase of 12.17% [0]
• Technical Aspect:
  The stock price is currently between the 20-day moving average ($47.96) and the 50-day moving average ($44.94), in a consolidation phase [0]
• Trading Volume:
  Average daily volume of 1.32 million shares, indicating good liquidity [0]

• October 1: Q3 earnings report showed $14 million in license revenue [0]
• November 20: Patient enrollment started for CAREFNDR Phase 3 trial [1]
• December 11: First patient dosed in CALM-CAH Phase 3 trial [4]

• Traditional DCF model shows negative value (base scenario -$2,166.37), which is a typical
  characteristic of clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies
  [0]
• Reasons: High R&D investment, not yet profitable at scale, future revenue highly dependent on product commercial success

1. NPV Analysis Based on Peak Sales:
   • PALSONIFY (Acromegaly): Expected peak sales of $300-500 million
   • PALSONIFY (Carcinoid Syndrome): If approved, additional contribution of $200-300 million
   • Atumelnant (CAH): Expected peak sales of $200-400 million
   • Combined peak sales potential: $700 million - $1.2 billion

2. Risk-Adjusted Valuation:
   • Conservative Scenario (40% success probability): $45-55/share
   • Base Scenario (60% success probability): $70-85/share
   • Optimistic Scenario (80% success probability): $100-130/share

3. Rationality Analysis of Analyst Target Prices:
   • Median target price of $82 implies the market is optimistic about the success of both products [0]
   • If PALSONIFY commercialization goes smoothly and Atumelnant Phase 3 data is positive, the target price can be achieved

1. Commercial Execution Risk (High Risk):
   • PALSONIFY faces competition from injectables and needs to prove clinical advantages of oral formulation
   • Market acceptance after Carcinoid Syndrome indication approval is uncertain
   • Insurance coverage and patient reimbursement rates affect prescription volume

2. Clinical Development Risk (Medium-High Risk):
   • Atumelnant Phase 3 trial may not replicate positive Phase 2 results
   • If Cohort 4 data shows reduced efficacy or safety issues, it will affect Phase 3 design

3. Regulatory Risk (Medium Risk):
   • FDA has strict requirements for safety and efficacy of new category drugs
   • Approval of Carcinoid Syndrome indication may require additional confirmatory trials

4. Funding Demand Risk (Low Risk):
   • The company currently has sufficient cash (current ratio of 15.12) [0]
   • However, Phase 3 trials and commercialization will consume significant funds
   • If clinical data is poor, it may affect subsequent financing capacity

5. Competition Risk (Medium Risk):
   • Other biotech companies may develop competing products in the CAH field
   • New oral long-acting formulations are being developed in the acromegaly field

• Trigger Conditions:
  Atumelnant Cohort 4 data shows sustained biomarker improvement, PALSONIFY commercialization exceeds expectations
• Stock Price Performance:
  Rises 30-50% to $60-70
• Key Drivers:
  Positive clinical data strengthens Phase 3 success probability

• Trigger Conditions:
  Data meets expectations, consistent with previous Phase 2 results, commercialization progresses steadily
• Stock Price Performance:
  Remains in the $45-55 range
• Key Drivers:
  Market waits for Phase 3 data, no major short-term catalysts

• Trigger Conditions:
  Cohort4 data shows reduced efficacy or safety issues, slow commercialization progress
• Stock Price Performance:
  Drops 20-30% to $33-38
• Key Drivers:
  Increased market concerns about Atumelnant’s success probability

1. Dual Product Drive:
   CRNX has two potential blockbuster products, diversifying the risk of single product failure

2. First-in-class Drug Advantages:
   • PALSONIFY is the first oral somatostatin receptor agonist
   • Atumelnant is the first ACTH receptor antagonist
   • First-in-class drugs usually enjoy higher pricing power and longer market exclusivity

3. Market Expansion Potential:
   • Oral convenience may expand the acromegaly treatment population (some patients currently untreated due to refusal of injections)
   • If approved, Atumelnant will create a new CAH treatment market

4. Pipeline Depth:
   The company has over 10 disclosed R&D projects, providing potential for long-term growth [1]

• 2026:
  PALSONIFY sales reach $50-100 million, Atumelnant Phase3 ongoing
• 2027:
  PALSONIFY peak sales of $200-300 million, Atumelnant receives FDA approval
• 2028:
  Dual product commercialization, total revenue reaches $500-800 million
• Valuation Target:
  Based on multiple method (3-4x revenue), market capitalization reaches $15-24 billion, stock price $160-250

Buy (long-term investors) / Hold (short-term investors)

• Investors who can tolerate high volatility of clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies
• Long-term investors with an investment horizon of over 12 months
• Investors with in-depth knowledge of innovative drugs and rare disease fields

• **Aggressive Portfolio:**3-5% position
• **Balanced Portfolio:**1-2% position
• Conservative Portfolio:
  Not recommended (or only as a small satellite position)

1. Weekly:
   PALSONIFY prescription volume data (available via IQVIA and other channels)
2. Monthly:
   Enrollment progress of CAREFNDR and CALM-CAH trials
3. Quarterly:
   Cash burn rate and funding runway
4. Key Events:
   Phase3 data readout schedule (expected in 2027)

##7. Conclusion

• If Cohort4 data is positive, the stock price is expected to break through $50 and move towards the median analyst target price of $82
• If data meets expectations, the stock price will remain in the $45-55 range
• If data falls short of expectations, the stock price will correct sharply

• Success Scenario:
  Both products are approved for marketing, CRNX will become a leader in the endocrine rare disease field, with market capitalization expected to exceed $10 billion
• Partial Success Scenario:
  PALSONIFY commercialization goes smoothly and Atumelnant Phase3 data is positive, market capitalization reaches $6-8 billion
• Failure Risk:
  Failure of either product will significantly reduce the company’s valuation, but the other product can still support part of the value

CRNX is currently in a critical period of transition from clinical stage to commercial stage. . It is recommended that investors closely monitor the detailed interpretation of Cohort4 data and PALSONIFY’s commercialization progress to determine whether it is worth establishing or increasing positions at the current price.

— References —

[0] Jinling API Data (Crinetics Pharmaceuticals company overview, financial data, market data)

[1] GlobeNewswire - “Crinetics Pharmaceuticals to Provide PALSONIFY Business Update and Announce Topline Results from Fourth Cohort of Phase 2 Trial of Atumelnant” (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/04/3212404/0/en/Crinetics-Pharmaceuticals-to-Provide-PALSONIFY-Business-Update-and-Announce-Topline-Results-from-Fourth-Cohort-of-Phase-2-Trial-of-Atumelnant-in-Congenital-Adrenal-Hyperplasia.html)

[2] Nature - “2025 FDA approvals” - Paltusotine (Palsonify) FDA approval listing (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-026-00001-z)

[3] GlobeNewswire - “Somatostatin Analogs Market Size to Reach USD 14.32 Billion by 2032” (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/17/3189167/0/en/Somatostatin-Analogs-Market-Size-to-Reach-USD-14-32-Billion-by-2032-as-Advanced-Treatments-Accelerate-Global-Adoption-SNS-Insider.html)

[4] GlobeNewswire - “Crinetics Announces First Patient Dosed in Pivotal Adult Trial of Atumelnant in Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH)” (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/11/3204301/0/en/Crinetics-Announces-First-Patient-Dosed-in-Pivotal-Adult-Trial-of-Atumelnant-in-Congenital-Adrenal-Hyperplasia-CAH.html)

[5] The Business Research Company - “Global Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia Market Report 2025” - Market size and growth projections (https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/infographimages/250306_GMR_Congenital_Adrenal_Hyperplasia_Market.webp)

[6] CARES Foundation - “VOICE OF THE PATIENT REPORT” - Unmet medical needs in CAH treatment (https://caresfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/CARES-CAH-Voice-of-the-Patient-Report-2025.pdf)