Analysis of CATL's Possibility to Undertake Sunwoda's Lost Orders

According to the latest data, CATL’s capacity utilization rate has exceeded

since Q3 2025[1], which is at a high level against the industry background of 86% global energy storage cell capacity utilization. This reflects strong demand in the power battery market, with enterprises generally operating at full capacity[1].

Sunwoda is facing

:

• Legal Lawsuit
  : Geely’s subsidiary Viridi sued Sunwoda’s subsidiary for a compensation of up to
  2.314 billion yuan
  , accusing the cells delivered from June 2021 to December 2023 of serious quality issues[2][3]
• Sustained Losses
  : The power battery business recorded a net loss of 1.56 billion yuan in 2023 and expanded to 1.87 billion yuan in 2024, with cumulative losses exceeding
  3.4 billion yuan
  over two years[3]
• Overseas Setbacks
  : In July 2025, LG Energy Solution won a patent infringement lawsuit against Sunwoda in Germany for the third time; the German court ruled that Sunwoda infringed and ordered it to stop sales, recall and destroy inventory[3]
• Plunging Stock Price
  : After the news broke, the stock price plummeted
  11.4%
  in a single day[4]

The affected customer groups involve

, including mainstream automakers such as Li Auto (L6, L7, L8), Dongfeng Passenger Vehicles, Leapmotor, and Dongfeng Nissan[3].

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Although CATL’s capacity utilization rate is 90%, as the global leader in power batteries, it has an annual production capacity of [1]. According to industry practice, a 90% utilization rate means about 10% of flexible capacity remains (approximately 60GWh), which is sufficient to take over part of the transferred high-end orders.

CATL leads the industry in core technical indicators such as battery energy density, cycle life, and BMS management system; its product quality stability is far superior to second-tier manufacturers, fully meeting automakers’ higher quality requirements.

After Sunwoda’s quality scandal, automakers will pay more attention to suppliers’ quality control capabilities and technical strength. As the absolute industry leader (with a market share of over 40%), CATL is the for automakers to switch suppliers.

A 90% utilization rate is already at a high level; further significant capacity expansion takes time (new production lines usually take 12-18 months). Under current capacity constraints, CATL may prioritize meeting the needs of strategic and large customers.

CATL has always adopted a , and its quotations are usually 20%-30% higher than second-tier manufacturers. For price-sensitive mid-to-low-end model customers, they may turn to other second-tier manufacturers (such as China Innovation Aviation, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy, etc.)[1].

Capacity expansion requires upstream material support. Recently, prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate have continued to rise; lithium hexafluorophosphate has soared by more than 260% in the past five months[1], which will restrict the speed of capacity expansion.

---

This incident will accelerate the

in the power battery industry:

Tier	Enterprises	Benefit Level
First Tier	CATL, BYD	High Benefit - First choice for order transfer
Second Tier	China Innovation Aviation, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy	Medium Benefit - Diversion of mid-to-low-end orders
Third Tier	Sunwoda, SVOLT	Pressure - Market share under squeeze

Data shows that CATL and BYD’s combined market share in 2025 is about 65.8%, but it decreased by 4.0% and 1.8% respectively compared to 2022[1]. This industry reshuffle is expected to help leading enterprises

.

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1. High-end orders undertaking probability: High
   • High-end brands such as Li Auto and Zeekr may switch to CATL
   • CATL’s technical strength and quality assurance meet the needs of high-end models

2. Mid-to-low-end orders diversion probability: Medium
   • Some orders will be diverted to second-tier leaders such as China Innovation Aviation and Gotion High-Tech
   • CATL’s limited capacity makes it difficult to take over all

3. Time Window
   • Short-term (H1 2026): Obvious capacity constraints, limited undertaking scale
   • Mid-term (H2 2026): Undertaking capacity improves with new capacity release
   • Long-term (2027): Expected to undertake
     30%-50%
     of Sunwoda’s lost orders

• CATL (300750) will benefit from increased industry concentration
• Second-tier leaders such as China Innovation Aviation and Gotion High-Tech will have opportunities for market share expansion
• Sunwoda (300207) faces the
  double-kill risk
  of valuation and performance

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[1] Huaxia Energy Network - “Long-term Order Wave Drives 400 Billion Expansion; Energy Storage Follows Photovoltaic Overcapacity Path!” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251225092119082033460)
[2] Tencent Auto - “Geely Sues Sunwoda: The Era of Big Manufacturers Making Their Own Batteries Will Finally Come” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251230A06SUC00)
[3] Plastics Vision - “2.3 Billion Claim ‘Stuns’ Sunwoda! Over 40 Models Affected” (https://zshq.zuiyouliao.com/zixun/detail-4216abc0be53477ea99229e8c29d1133.html)
[4] Eastmoney.com - Sunwoda Stock Price Chart (https://img.cheshi-img.com/center/images/d0/9b/c8/8ed199e76e08787a0319506c1f.png)