Analysis of Apollo Go's Order Growth

Based on available data, Apollo Go (Baidu’s autonomous driving mobility service platform) has indeed shown a

in order volume, but it is still in the climbing phase of the curve.

Time Node	Order Volume/Growth Rate	Remarks
2024 Q3	988,000 orders, +20% YoY	Basic Growth Period
2024 Q4	Exceeded 1.1 million orders	QoQ growth ~11%
2025 Q1	Cumulative over 9 million orders	Milestone Breakthrough
2025 Q3	3.1 million orders, +212% YoY	Accelerated Growth Period
October 2025	Average weekly orders over 250,000	Continuous Acceleration
November 2025	Cumulative over17 million orders	Scalability Emerges

1. Initial Slow Growth Phase (2023 - H1 2024)
   • In the phase of technology verification and city expansion
   • Small order base, relatively stable growth rate

2. Inflection Point Emerges (H2 2024)
   • Launch of fully driverless commercial operations in Wuhan and other cities
   • Sixth-generation driverless vehicles put into operation, with significant cost reduction

3. Explosive Growth Phase (2025)
   • YoY growth rate jumped from20% to 212%
   • Coverage expanded from several cities to15 globally
   • Fully driverless operation ratio increased from70% to over80%

The core characteristic of the J-curve is an accelerated growth pattern of “slow first, then fast”. Apollo Go’s order growth rate soared from 20% in2024 to 212% in2025, supported by the following factors:

• Policy Dividends
  : Achieved100% fully driverless operation nationwide in February2025 [1]
• Cost Reduction
  : Significant cost reduction of the sixth-generation vehicles
• Scale Effect
  : Fleet expansion + increased city coverage
• Technology Maturity
  : Cumulative mileage and safety verified

###3. Risk Tips

Although it shows J-curve growth characteristics, the following points still need attention:

• Profitability not yet fully realized (expected to be profitable in 2025)
• Increased competition (rivals like Tesla entering the market)
• Uncertainty of regulatory policy changes

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[1] Robin Li:2025 Will Be a Key Year for Apollo Go’s Expansion (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/李彥宏-2025年將是蘿蔔快跑擴張的關鍵-一年-224147925.html)

[2] Baidu Group’s Third Quarter Total Revenue Reaches33.56 Billion Yuan (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/video/百度集團第三季度總收入335-6億元-030000468.html)

[3] Baidu’s Q3 AI New Business Revenue Grows Over50%; Total MAU of Baidu Wenku and Baidu Wangpan Approaches300 Million (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/百度第三季-ai-新業務收入增長超過50-文庫網盤總mau近3億-233500938.html)