Analysis of Globalization Progress and Profitability of Baidu Apollo Go's Autonomous Driving Business

Based on the latest data and industry research, I systematically analyze the globalization progress and future profitability of Baidu Apollo Go’s autonomous driving business:

Apollo Go has achieved commercial deployment in

, covering key markets such as Hong Kong, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi [1]. The company recently reached a and plans to launch autonomous taxi services in Germany and the UK first in 2026 [1]. In addition, Baidu has also established cooperation with and will expand its services to more international markets in the second half of 2025 [2].

As of now, Apollo Go has provided over

to global users, with safe driving mileage exceeding [1]. This scale is already close to that of major competitor Waymo (Waymo has累计 over 10 million rides and operates about 250,000 rides per week) [3].

The high efficiency of China’s electric vehicle industry chain provides Apollo Go with significant

. The company continues to reduce hardware costs by outsourcing vehicle production to third-party partners and pilots in some cities to optimize operational costs [4]. The latest generation of models has been equipped with more luxurious configurations, thanks to the cost advantages of the local supply chain.

From a valuation perspective, Baidu’s current share price of HK$143.80 corresponds to a

, significantly lower than the average level of technology companies. The company maintains healthy free cash flow (latest FCF is about RMB 13.1 billion), with a and stable financial status [5].

The DCF valuation model shows:

Scenario	Fair Valuation	Upside vs Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$338.23	+135.2%
Base Scenario	$487.55	+239.0%
Optimistic Scenario	$1009.98	+602.4%
Probability-Weighted Valuation	$611.92	+325.5%

The

, and the Beta coefficient is only 0.43, indicating that the market’s risk perception of Baidu is relatively conservative [5].

• The global Robotaxi market is in a爆发期, and it is expected to exceed $50 billion by 2030.
• Policy support for the domestic market in China is increasing, and Apollo Go has obtained L4-level commercial operation licenses in first-tier cities such as Shenzhen.
• The international cooperation model (with Lyft and Uber) can quickly achieve market penetration and reduce capital expenditure pressure.

• Vehicle hardware costs decrease with scale effects (expected annual decline of 15-20% per vehicle).
• Increased proportion of remote monitoring by safety personnel can reduce labor costs by 30-40%.
• After the expansion of fleet scale, the increased utilization rate of the background system brings marginal cost reduction.

• Policy Risk
  : The regulatory frameworks for autonomous driving in various countries are still evolving, which may affect commercialization progress.
• Competition Risk
  : International players such as Waymo and Cruise continue to expand, and there are also many competitors in China’s domestic market.
• Technology Iteration Risk
  : There is uncertainty in the autonomous driving technology route, and the timing of large-scale commercialization of L4-level is to be verified.

Apollo Go’s globalization layout has made substantial progress, and cooperation with industry giants such as Lyft and Uber verifies its technical strength and replicability of the business model. From a profitability perspective, it is currently in a

:

1. Short-term (2025-2026)
   : Still requires large capital investment, but the loss margin is expected to narrow significantly.
2. Medium-term (2027-2029)
   : Core cities are expected to achieve break-even, with EBITDA margin projected to reach 15-20%.
3. Long-term (after 2030)
   : Become an important profit growth driver for Baidu, contributing more than 20% of overall revenue.

Considering Baidu’s stable growth in core search business (2024 revenue is about RMB 136 billion) and long-term growth potential of AI business, the current valuation has a high

. Combined with the analyst consensus rating of and the 325% upside shown by the DCF model, the value release of Apollo Go’s business will provide an important catalyst for Baidu’s share price.

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[1] Yahoo Finance - “Entering Europe! Apollo Go and Lyft Join Forces to Deploy in Germany and UK in 2026” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/蘿蔔快跑lyft-2026年部署-200002810.html)

[2] Wall Street Journal - “Baidu’s Revenue Declines, Core Advertising Business Weakens” (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/百度核心广告业务疲软)

[3] Wall Street Journal - “China’s Autonomous Taxis Are So Smooth, Waymo Should Be Nervous” (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/china-robotaxi-self-driving-waymo)

[4] Yahoo Finance - “Autonomous Taxi Track: Baidu Declares War on Global Competitors” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/自動駕駛出租車-百道向全球對手宣戰)

[5] Jinling API Financial Data - “Baidu (9888.HK) Financial Analysis and DCF Valuation”