In-depth Analysis of the Impact of the Power Battery Comprehensive Utilization Management Measures on the Investment Pattern of the New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain

The State Council issued the “Solid Waste Comprehensive Governance Action Plan” which clearly proposes to accelerate the introduction of the New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Comprehensive Utilization Management Measures, marking that the power battery recycling industry will enter a new stage of

[1].

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2024, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached

, and the peak of power battery decommissioning is approaching. Combining China’s annual power battery shipment data and lifespan distribution, it is estimated:

• 2026
  : Power battery decommissioning volume is about
  43 GWh
• 2030
  : Will surge to
  171 GWh
• 2024
  : Recycling volume exceeds
  300,000 tons
  , corresponding to a market size of over
  48 billion yuan
• 2030
  : The market size is expected to exceed
  100 billion yuan
  [1]

The 2024 new version of the “New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling and Utilization Management Measures” clearly requires:

• Recycling enterprises must have
  Environmental Impact Assessment qualification
• Must have
  Digital traceability capability
• Use “One Battery, One Code” to achieve full-life-cycle traceability [3]

This will gradually eliminate small workshops that lack technical strength and compliance capabilities, and the industry will enter the

stage.

Currently, the industry has three major problems:

• The phenomenon of “Whoever Offers the Highest Price Gets It” frequently occurs in the recycling and utilization market, leading to waste batteries flowing into non-standard channels
• Low access threshold for recycling and utilization enterprises, with built capacity higher than processing demand
• Insufficient binding force for recycling and utilization, lack of strong penalties for non-compliant enterprises [1]

, and leading enterprises will gain higher market share with their technological and scale advantages.

The policy clarifies the

, which will promote:

• Battery enterprises extending their recycling business downstream
• Vehicle enterprises building their own or participating in recycling systems
• Deepening of collaboration between upstream and downstream of the industry chain

The

will become an industry benchmark: Through an investment of 32 billion yuan, it will build a full-chain cycle of “battery production - use - echelon utilization - recycling and resource regeneration” [2].

The decentralized model of manual disassembly by small workshops can no longer adapt to the standardized processing needs of decommissioned batteries. Leading enterprises can generally increase the recovery rate to

through advanced processes:

• GEM
  : Nickel recovery rate exceeds 99%, lithium recovery rate reaches over 95%, far higher than the requirements of the “EU New Battery Law”
• Bangpu Recycling
  : The total recovery rate of core metal materials for battery products reaches over 99% [3]

This

is gradually making small workshops lose market competitiveness.

Relying on core leading enterprises, regional processing centers, production bases and technical talents are accelerating their gathering:

• Yichang, Hubei
  : CATL Bangpu Integrated Industrial Park (total investment of 32 billion yuan)
• Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang
  : Concentrated layout of enterprises such as GEM and Guanghua Technology
• Jiangsu, Anhui
  : Professional recycling enterprises are accelerating their gathering

---

Based on network search [1] and brokerage API data [0], the following enterprises will benefit the most:

• Market Position
  : Ranked first in global power battery installation volume for 8 consecutive years (market share 37.9%), battery recycling capacity accounts for
  6.38%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [0]
• Full Industry Chain Layout
  : Through an investment of 32 billion yuan, it builds a full-chain cycle of “battery production - use - echelon utilization - recycling and resource regeneration” [2]

• Technical Leadership
  : Nickel recovery rate exceeds 99%, lithium recovery rate reaches over 95%, far higher than the requirements of the “EU New Battery Law”
• Market Share
  : Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  5.91%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [1]
• Industry Collaboration
  : Jointly built a recycling system with nearly 20 leading two-wheel vehicle enterprises such as Yadea and Ninebot

• Lithium Resource Leader
  : Ranked first in the industry
• Market Share
  : Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  4.72%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [1]
• Vertical Integration
  : Full industry chain layout from lithium ore mining to lithium battery recycling

• Cobalt and Nickel Resource Advantages
  : Ranked first in the industry
• Full Industry Chain
  : Complete industry chain from cobalt and nickel resources to new materials to recycling and utilization
• Technical Leadership
  : Leading ternary precursor technology, supplying products to Samsung SDI, LG Chem, CATL, etc.

• Focuses on PCB chemicals and lithium battery materials
• Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  3.25%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [1]

• Focuses on lithium battery cathode material precursors
• Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  2.89%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [1]

• Focuses on lithium battery recycling and utilization
• Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  2.15%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [1]

• Relying on CATL’s resources
• Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  6.38%
  (tied for first place with CATL) [1]

• Have characteristic technologies in segmented fields
• Battery recycling capacity accounts for
  1.87%
  of the total capacity of white-list enterprises [1]

1. Deterministic Growth
   : The decommissioning volume of power batteries will reach 171 GWh by 2030, with the market size exceeding 100 billion yuan and a CAGR of over
   30%
   [1]
2. Policy Dividend
   : The introduction of management measures will accelerate industry clearing, and leading enterprises will increase their market share
3. Technical Premium
   : Enterprises with high recovery rate technology will obtain higher profit margins
4. Industry Chain Collaboration
   : In-depth cooperation between battery enterprises, vehicle enterprises and recycling enterprises will create new business models

1. Raw Material Price Fluctuation
   : Lithium carbonate price dropped from 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022 to 80,000 yuan/ton in 2024, directly affecting recycling profitability [3]
2. Intensified Industry Competition
   : There are 192,300 related enterprises, and the overcapacity problem is serious (capacity utilization rate was only about 50% in 2024) [3]
3. Technical Iteration Risk
   : New technologies such as solid-state batteries may change the existing recycling technology route
4. Policy Implementation Intensity
   : The policy effect depends on the implementation intensity and supervision strength

• Priority Allocation
  : CATL-Bangpu Recycling (full industry chain leader)
• Key Focus
  : GEM (technical leadership + nickel resource advantage)

• Layout Elastic Targets
  : Ganfeng Lithium, HUAYOU COBALT (expectation of lithium price recovery)
• Focus on Technical Breakthroughs
  : Guanghua Technology, Fangyuan Co., Ltd.

• Hold Leading Enterprises
  : Enjoy the dividend of industry concentration improvement
• Focus on Emerging Technologies
  : New opportunities brought by technical breakthroughs in solid-state battery recycling

The introduction of the Power Battery Comprehensive Utilization Management Measures will reshape the investment pattern of the industry chain:

1. The industry will enter a stage of
   standardized development
   from “barbaric growth”
2. Leading enterprises will gain higher market share and profitability with their technological, scale and capital advantages
3. The market size will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of over 30%
4. CATL-Bangpu Recycling, GEM, Ganfeng Lithium and HUAYOU COBALT will benefit the most

: Focus on leading enterprises with technical leadership, complete industry chain layout and in-depth cooperation with downstream vehicle enterprises. They will gain larger market share and higher profitability in the industry clearing.

---

[1] Network Search - Qianzhan Industry Research Institute: “2025 China Battery Recycling Industry Panoramic Map”, “China Battery Recycling Industry Competition Pattern and Market Share”
[2] Network Search - International Energy Storage Network: “Total Investment of 32 Billion Yuan! New Developments in CATL Bangpu Integrated New Energy Industrial Park”
[3] Network Search - Low Carbon Network: “Over 1 Million Tons of Decommissioned Batteries ‘Approaching’, Is the Inflection Point of Lithium Battery Recycling Coming?”
[0] Jinling API Data - Real-time Market Data (GEM, CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, HUAYOU COBALT, Guanghua Technology)