Analysis of the Impact of Tesla's Lower-than-Expected Deliveries on Valuation and Growth Expectations

According to the latest data, Tesla’s 2025 deliveries showed significant volatility:

• Q1 2025
  : 386,800 units (-3% YoY)
• Q2 2025
  : 443,959 units (-5% YoY)
• Q3 2025
  : 497,099 units (+7% YoY) – Record quarter
• Q4 2025
  : 418,227 units (-16% YoY) – Significant decline

: Approximately 1.746 million units [0]

:

Q3’s record deliveries (497,000 units) were mainly driven by U.S. consumers rushing to purchase before the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit expired on September 30 [1]. This directly led to:

• 16% QoQ decline
  : Demand was pre-overdrawn in Q3
• Sharp drop in market share
  : U.S. EV market share plummeted from over 11% in September to ~6% in October-November [2]
• Return to natural demand
  : Deliveries fell back to a more “normal” level after subsidies expired

Beyond subsidy factors, Tesla faces:

1. Intensified competition
   : Electric vehicle offensives from Chinese manufacturers (e.g., BYD) and U.S. traditional automakers
2. Aging product line
   : Lack of major new model launches since Cybertruck
3. Price pressure
   : The company introduced lower-priced “Standard Edition” Model 3 and Model Y in October-December 2025 to stimulate demand [2]
4. Weak global markets
   : Growth slowed in markets other than China

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Tesla’s current valuation is in an extreme state:

Valuation Metric	Value	Industry Average	Assessment
Price-to-Earnings (P/E)	268.35x	~15-20x	Extremely overvalued
Price-to-Book (P/B)	17.68x	~2-3x	Severe premium
Price-to-Sales (P/S)	14.75x	~1-2x	Extremely expensive
EV/OCF	89.26x	~15-20x	Excessively high cash flow multiple

: Jinling API Data [0]

Analysis using a three-scenario discounted cash flow model:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Discount vs Current Price	Core Assumptions
Conservative	$141.11	-67.8%	0% revenue growth, 15.8% EBITDA margin
Base	$147.25	-66.4%	32.7% revenue growth,16.7% EBITDA margin
Optimistic	$188.20	-57.0%	35.7% revenue growth,17.5% EBITDA margin

: Even in the , Tesla’s stock price is still 57% higher than its intrinsic value, indicating current prices have overpriced growth expectations for the next several years [0].

###2.3 Doubts About Sustainability of Valuation Multiples

Tesla’s high valuation is based on the following key assumptions:

1. Success of Autopilot/Robotaxi
   : An unproven technology and business model
2. Sustained ultra-high growth
   : Requires maintaining 30%+ revenue growth, which is extremely challenging in the current competitive environment
3. Margin expansion
   : In reality, Tesla’s auto business gross margin is under pressure

are precisely based on doubts about the sustainability of these assumptions [3].

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###3.1 Current Analyst Rating Distribution

• Buy
  :31 (38.8%)
• Hold
  :32 (40.0%)
• Sell
  :17 (21.2%)

: Hold [0]

###3.2 Recent Rating Adjustments

• Truist Securities
  : Lowered target price from $444 to $439, citing lower-than-expected Q4 deliveries [3]
• Wedbush
  : Maintained “Underweight” rating with a target price of $600 (though target price is high, the rating is cautious)
• Morgan Stanley
  : Reaffirmed rating, emphasizing “Robotaxi” as a future catalyst but also noting delivery risks [3]
• William Blair
  : Reaffirmed “Market Perform” rating

: While some analysts remain bullish, the increase in target price cuts and cautious ratings indicates market sentiment is shifting toward a more rational assessment.

###3.3 Deep Implications of Underweight Ratings

Underweight ratings from institutions like HSBC reflect:

1. Recalibration of growth expectations
   : Shift from “unlimited growth” narrative to more realistic growth expectations
2. Doubts about valuation rationality
   : Current multiples are hard to sustain amid profitability pressures
3. Concerns about structural challenges
   : Intensified competition, subsidy withdrawal, and aging product cycles are not short-term issues

Does this represent a broader market sentiment shift?

. From the data:

• Sell rating ratio rose from historical lows to 21.2%
• Multiple institutions lowered target prices
• Stock reacted negatively (-2.59%) after Q4 delivery data was released [0]

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###4.1 Current Technical Status

:

• Trend
  : Sideways consolidation, no clear direction
• Support level
  : $429.70
• Resistance level
  : $464.27
• RSI
  : Near oversold territory, potential short-term rebound opportunity
• Moving averages
  : 20-day MA ($464.27) and 50-day MA ($445.01) form resistance

###4.2 Stock Performance Review in 2025

• YTD
  : +12.30% (mainly driven by AI and Autopilot narratives)
• vs S&P500
  : Tesla outperformed the broader market significantly, but this was mainly based on future expectations rather than current fundamentals

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###5.1 Downgrade of 2025 Delivery Growth Expectations

Q4’s weak performance forced the market to reassess Tesla’s growth prospects:

Indicator	Previous Expectation	Actual Performance	Gap
Q4 Deliveries	422,850-455,000 units	418,227 units	Missed expectation
YoY Growth	Expected positive	-16%	Significant decline
U.S. Market Share	Maintain high	6% (vs peak of11%)	Nearly halved

###5.2 Challenges to Mid-term Growth Prospects

Tesla faces the following structural constraints:

1. Product cycle
   : Lack of new models means growth depends on incremental improvements to existing product lines and price wars
2. Market competition
   : Especially fierce in China, where BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest EV manufacturer in 2025 [4]
3. Margin pressure
   : Price war and rising costs may erode profitability
4. Regulatory risk
   : Regulatory scrutiny of autonomous driving and AI is intensifying globally

###5.3 Reassessment of Long-Term Growth Story

Tesla’s long-term value proposition mainly relies on:

• FSD (Full Self-Driving) and Robotaxi
  : An unproven technology and business model with uncertain commercialization timelines
• Energy storage business
  : Growing rapidly but still small relative to the auto business
• Humanoid robots
  : An early-stage exploratory project that will take years to contribute revenue

: Can these “long-term stories” support current extreme valuation multiples?

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###6.1 Key Risk Factors

1. Valuation risk
   : Current prices have already priced in optimistic growth expectations for the next several years; any execution deviation will lead to a sharp stock correction
2. Sustained delivery misses
   : Q4 may be the start of a trend rather than a one-time event
3. Intensified competition
   : Especially from Chinese manufacturers
4. Margin pressure
   : Price wars and rising costs may worsen profitability
5. Key person risk
   : Elon Musk’s distractions from multiple businesses
6. Regulatory risk
   : Autonomous driving and AI technologies face stricter regulatory scrutiny

###6.2 Key Observation Indicators

Investors should closely monitor:

Indicator	Observation Point	Trigger Signal
Q1 2026 Deliveries	Whether growth can resume	Below 400,000 units is negative
Gross Margin	Trend of auto business gross margin	Sustained below18% is a warning
FSD Progress	Robotaxi commercialization progress	Any delay is negative
New Products	Model 2 or new Model Y	No new models in2026 is negative
China Market Share	Whether it can stop falling and recover	Continued loss of share is severely negative

###6.3 Potential Positive Catalysts

Despite challenges, the following factors may drive a stock rebound:

1. Robotaxi breakthrough
   : Any commercial progress may reignite the growth story
2. New model launch
   : Model2 or updated existing models
3. Overexpected growth of energy storage business
   : This business is growing rapidly
4. Recovery of overall market risk appetite
   : A rebound in growth stocks as a whole may drive Tesla

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###7.1 Core Conclusions

1. Delivery miss is structural
   : Q4’s decline was not just due to tax credit expiration but also reflected deeper challenges like intensified competition and aging product cycles
2. Extreme valuation
   : Current stock price is 57-68% higher than DCF intrinsic value; even the optimistic scenario cannot support it
3. Cautious analyst sentiment
   : Underweight ratings from institutions like HSBC reflect the market’s reassessment of Tesla’s growth sustainability
4. Technical sideways
   : Stock is consolidating in the $430-$465 range with no clear direction

###7.2 Is This a Broader Market Sentiment Shift?

:

• From “unconditionally believing in Tesla’s growth story” to “demanding clearer execution evidence”
• From “paying any price for future tech vision” to “focusing on current fundamentals and profitability”
• From “Tesla will win” to “more balanced risk-reward assessment”

###7.3 Investment Recommendation Framework

Investor Type	Recommendation	Reason
Long-term value investors	Avoid or reduce positions	Extreme valuation, rising risk of fundamental deterioration
Growth investors	Cautious wait	Need clearer evidence of delivery recovery and Robotaxi progress
Short-term traders	Range trading	Look for rebound opportunities near $430 support level, but set strict stop-loss
Low-risk tolerance investors	Avoid	High volatility, high fundamental uncertainty

: Tesla is currently in a high-risk state. While the long-term vision may still be grand, the stock price has already priced in too many optimistic expectations. Investors should remain highly cautious until there are clear signals of fundamental improvement.

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[0] Jinling API Data – Tesla real-time quotes, financial data, technical analysis and valuation models
[1] Yahoo Finance – “Tesla Warning Investors About What’s to Come?” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-warning-investors-come-153104223.html)
[2] StockTitan – “Tesla Deliveries by Quarter 2020 to2025: Complete Tables” (https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/tesla-q4-2025-deliveries-quarterly-history-analysis)
[3] Investing.com – “Analyst Stock Ratings” (https://cn.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings)
[4] Benzinga – “Weekend Round-Up: Tesla Loses EV Crown, BYD’s Overseas Sales Surge” (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/01/49681748)

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: January5,2026
: Jinling AI Professional Investment Research System
: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest at your own risk based on your risk tolerance.