Comprehensive Analysis of the Impact of OPEC+ Member States' Internal Turmoil on Global Oil Supply Patterns and Energy Investments

Recently, OPEC+ has faced unprecedented internal challenges, with political tensions among major member states continuing to escalate:

: These two core OPEC+ member states have significant differences in oil policies. Despite internal conflicts, OPEC+ still decided to maintain stable oil production at its meeting on January 4, 2026, choosing to suspend plans to further increase supply in the first quarter [1,2]. This decision reflects the organization’s maturity in market management, prioritizing market stability over political disputes.

: On January 3, 2026, the Trump administration took military action against Venezuela, successfully capturing President Nicolás Maduro and bringing him back to the United States for trial [3,4]. The Trump administration publicly stated that it would “take over” Venezuela and acquire its oil reserves [5]. This is one of the most serious internal turmoil events among OPEC+ members since its establishment, having a profound impact on the organization’s unity and operation.

: Russia’s oil exports continue to face enormous pressure from U.S. sanctions on its war in Ukraine, while Iran faces domestic protests and threats of U.S. intervention [1]. The predicament of these two important oil-producing countries further exacerbates the complexity within OPEC+.

Despite facing multiple crises, OPEC+ still increased its oil production target by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, equivalent to nearly 3% of global oil demand [1]. However, entering the first quarter of 2026, OPEC+ adopted a more cautious strategy, suspending further supply increases to address the prospect of global oil oversupply [2,6].

According to the 2025 Energy Industry Review, OPEC+'s market leverage has been significantly limited. The organization has extended voluntary production cuts multiple times, but their effectiveness is limited by the following factors:

: Oil production in non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada continues to climb, weakening OPEC+'s market share and pricing power [7].

: Due to weak industrial activity and efficiency improvements, global oil demand expectations have been revised downward multiple times, exacerbating concerns about oversupply [7].

: In 2025, although wars in Europe and the Middle East, Red Sea shipping disruptions, and repeated headline risks from major producing countries should have guaranteed a可观 geopolitical risk premium for crude oil, the market basically refused to pay this premium [7]. This indicates that the geopolitical sensitivity of the oil market is structurally declining.

The latest data from OPEC shows that the global oil market will tend to balance in 2026, contrasting with the widely predicted oversupply situation [6]. OPEC and its allies need to produce an average of 43 million barrels of oil per day to balance supply and demand, a level roughly the same as production in December last year [6].

According to brokerage API data, energy investments showed significant divergence in 2025:

: USO recorded a return of -10.10% in 2025, with an annualized volatility of up to 30.60%, reflecting the sharp fluctuations and downward pressure on oil prices [0].

: In contrast, XLE achieved a positive return of +3.18% in 2025, with an annualized volatility of 24.58% [0]. This indicates that the overall performance of the energy sector is better than pure oil prices, mainly benefiting from the dividend income and diversified business structure of energy companies.

Chart Description: The chart above shows the price performance and relative performance (benchmarked) of USO (oil ETF) and XLE (energy sector ETF) in 2025. XLE (purple line) outperformed USO (blue line), showing the resilience of energy companies amid falling oil prices.

On January 4, 2026, after OPEC+ announced the maintenance of stable production, the energy sector showed a positive reaction:

:

• ExxonMobil (XOM): Rose by 1.92%, closing at $122.65, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.83 times
• Chevron (CVX): Rose by 2.27%, closing at $155.87, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.89 times
• ConocoPhillips (COP): Rose by 3.30%, closing at $96.70, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.66 times [0]

:

• USO: Slightly fell by 0.29%, closing at $68.96
• XLE: Rose by 2.11%, closing at $45.65 [0]

This divergence reflects the market’s complex interpretation of OPEC+'s maintenance of stable production: on the one hand, production control supports oil prices, but on the other hand, concerns about oversupply still linger.

According to analysis from the Jerusalem Post, the geopolitical risk premium for oil fell sharply in 2025 and may not return to pre-2025 levels [8]. This trend reflects:

: Comfortable inventory levels and strong non-OPEC supply kept Brent crude oil in a range reflecting fundamentals for most of 2025, rather than geopolitical anxiety [7,8].

: Although the energy transition has slowed down, the continuous popularization of renewable energy and electric vehicles is structurally reducing dependence on oil [7].

: Given OPEC+'s internal turmoil and oversupply risks, it is recommended that investors remain cautious about pure oil price exposure (such as USO).

: Diversified energy ETFs like XLE may provide better risk-adjusted returns, mainly benefiting from the dividend income and diversified businesses of energy companies.

: Energy giants with strong balance sheets and low-cost production advantages (such as XOM and CVX) may show resilience amid volatility.

: U.S. intervention in Venezuela may reshape the global oil supply pattern; investors should pay attention to the long-term impact of this event and potential investment opportunities.

1. Oversupply Risk
   : Continuous growth of non-OPEC supply and weak demand may lead to long-term oversupply.

2. Geopolitical Escalation
   : The Venezuela crisis may further escalate, affecting global oil supply and prices.

3. Acceleration of Energy Transition
   : The global energy transition may accelerate, having a long-term structural impact on oil demand.

4. OPEC+ Internal Division
   : If differences among core OPEC+ member states intensify, it may lead to the organization’s disintegration or loss of coordination capabilities.

Internal turmoil among OPEC+ members, especially political tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the crisis in Venezuela, and sanctions pressure on Russia and Iran, is reshaping the global oil supply pattern. Although the organization has shown certain coordination capabilities, its market influence has significantly weakened.

For energy investments, the divergence trend in 2025 (USO falling by 10.10% vs. XLE rising by 3.18%) indicates that investors should avoid pure oil price exposure and instead focus on resilient energy companies and diversified ETFs. With the structural decline of the geopolitical risk premium, energy investments will rely more on improvements in fundamentals rather than short-term geopolitical events.

[0] Gilin API Data - Real-Time Quotes and Daily Line Data for U.S. Stocks and ETFs (2025-2026)

[1] Reuters - “OPEC+ to keep oil output steady despite turmoil among members, sources say” (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-keep-oil-output-steady-despite-turmoil-among-members-sources-say-2026-01-04/)

[2] Bloomberg - “OPEC+ Likely to Confirm Oil Production Pause, Delegates Say” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-30/opec-expected-to-stick-with-oil-production-pause-delegates-say)

[3] New York Times - “Live Updates: Questions Mount for U.S. and Venezuela After Maduro’s Capture” (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/04/world/trump-us-venezuela-maduro)

[4] Breitbart - “What the United States’ Takeover of Venezuelan Oil Reserves Could Mean” (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026-01-03/what-the-united-states-takeover-of-venezuelan-oil-reserves-could-mean/)

[5] Bloomberg - “Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Rallies Republican Hawks to His Side” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-04/trump-s-attack-on-venezuela-rallies-republican-hawks-to-his-side)

[6] Bloomberg - “OPEC Data Point to Balanced Global Oil Market Next Year” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/opec-data-point-to-balanced-global-oil-market-in-2026)

[7] Forbes - “The Top 10 Energy Stories Of 2025: The Year Reality Pushed Back” (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2025/12/27/the-top-10-energy-stories-of-2025-the-year-reality-pushed-back/)

[8] Jerusalem Post - “Oil’s geopolitical premium may not return to pre-2025 level” (https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-880994)