Ed Yardeni CNBC Interview: Earnings Drive Markets Amid Layoff Surge

This analysis is based on the CNBC interview with Ed Yardeni [1] published on November 11, 2025, where the Yardeni Research president discussed market outlooks emphasizing earnings as the primary market driver while acknowledging layoffs are playing a role in current economic conditions.

The interview occurred during a period of significant economic divergence. Corporate earnings have demonstrated exceptional strength in Q3 2025, with 82% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates - the highest beat rate since Q3 2021 [4]. This robust performance, featuring 13.1% year-over-year earnings growth and 77% revenue beat rate [4], has provided fundamental support for equity markets despite broader economic concerns.

Simultaneously, the labor market shows marked deterioration. October 2025 saw 153,074 planned job cuts, representing a 175% increase year-over-year and the highest October total since 2003 [5]. Year-to-date layoffs have surpassed 1.1 million, levels reminiscent of the 2008-2009 financial crisis [5]. The technology sector has been particularly affected, leading with 33,281 cuts driven by AI integration and operational restructuring [5].

: The current economic environment features an unusual disconnect between corporate profitability and employment conditions. Companies are achieving strong earnings growth while simultaneously implementing significant workforce reductions, suggesting productivity gains and efficiency improvements are driving profitability rather than pure revenue expansion.

: The technology sector’s dual role in both leading earnings growth and implementing substantial layoffs indicates a broader transformation. Companies are reducing headcounts while investing in artificial intelligence technologies [5], potentially creating a more efficient but employment-light operational model.

: Despite these conflicting signals, major indices showed positive performance on the interview date, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,846.61 (+0.45%), Dow Jones at 47,927.96 (+1.15%), and NASDAQ at 23,468.30 (+0.26%) [0]. This suggests markets are currently prioritizing earnings strength over labor market concerns.

:

• Labor Market Deterioration
  : The significant increase in layoffs may signal broader economic weakness that could eventually impact corporate earnings and consumer spending [5]
• Earnings Sustainability
  : Double-digit earnings growth may face challenges if economic conditions deteriorate further or if efficiency gains prove temporary
• Valuation Concerns
  : With forward 12-month P/E ratio at 22.7, above both 5-year (20.0) and 10-year (18.6) averages [4], markets may be vulnerable to earnings disappointments
• Data Limitations
  : Government shutdown has created significant gaps in labor market reporting, making it difficult to assess true employment conditions [5]

:

• Productivity Gains
  : AI-driven restructuring may lead to sustained efficiency improvements and long-term profitability
• Sector Divergence
  : Healthcare’s strong performance (+0.60%) [0] suggests defensive positioning opportunities amid broader uncertainty
• Earnings Quality
  : High beat rates indicate strong operational execution and potentially more resilient business models

The interview highlights a complex economic environment where corporate earnings strength is providing market support despite significant labor market deterioration. Q3 2025 earnings season has been exceptional, with 82% of companies beating estimates and 13.1% earnings growth [4]. However, October job cuts reached 22-year highs at 153,074 positions [5], with technology companies leading reductions due to AI integration.

Market performance remains positive, with major indices showing gains on November 11 [0], suggesting investors are currently prioritizing earnings fundamentals over employment concerns. The technology sector’s dual role in both driving earnings growth and implementing layoffs reflects a broader economic transformation toward more AI-driven, efficient operations.

Decision-makers should monitor weekly jobless claims, Q4 earnings guidance, consumer spending data, and government shutdown resolution to assess whether the current earnings-labor market disconnect is sustainable or signaling broader economic shifts.