Huangshi Group (300199) Guarantee Risk Analysis

Based on the public information searched, I conducted a systematic analysis of the high-leverage guarantee risk of Huangshi Group:

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According to the announcement on December 31, 2025, Huangshi Group’s external guarantee balance reached 2.45 billion yuan, accounting for 262.19% of the latest audited net assets. The available guarantee quota is only about 1.3 billion yuan, which is close to the annual upper limit of 3.79 billion yuan [1][2]. This ratio far exceeds the regulatory red line (usually requiring listed companies’ external guarantees not to exceed 50% of net assets), reflecting the company’s serious off-balance sheet liability risk.

• Short-term loans: 1 billion yuan
• Non-current liabilities due within one year: 235 million yuan
• Book monetary funds: only 229 million yuan
• Cash to short-term debt ratio: 0.19 (meaning cash on hand can only cover less than 20% of short-term debt) [2]

• 2025 first three quarters revenue: 1.314 billion yuan, down 13% YoY
• Net profit attributable to parent company: loss of 49.24 million yuan, a sharp drop of 236% YoY
• Non-recurring net profit has been negative for five consecutive years; main business has lost money in six of the past seven years
• Cumulative non-recurring losses exceed 2.1 billion yuan [1][2]

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Indicator	Evaluation
Industry Position	First stock of water buffalo milk, national sales champion, brand value 13.176 billion yuan
Market Space	Water buffalo milk is a differentiated track, driven by coffee and tea drinks to expand beyond Guangdong and Guangxi
Channel Layout	Distribution accounts for over 80% of revenue; covers channels like Hema, Metro, JD.com
Profitability	Sustained losses; main business has serious insufficient cash generation capacity

Although Huangshi Group has a leading position and brand advantages in the water buffalo milk field, its main business profitability is far from sufficient to support the huge liabilities accumulated from the company’s aggressive expansion. The company attributes the reason to the strategic adjustment of “eliminating low-margin businesses and focusing on high-value-added products”, but the reality is that the core water buffalo milk business is difficult to achieve overall profitability under fierce competition and high cost structure [1][2].

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Since 2014, Huangshi Group has failed to stick to its main business of water buffalo milk and has spent billions of yuan on cross-border investments in film and television and photovoltaic industries. These investments with no synergy with the main business eventually became cash flow black holes due to huge goodwill impairment and continuous project losses [1].

• June 2025: For concealing the “shortfall supplement + forward repurchase” agreement signed by its subsidiary Huangshi Digital Intelligence and Dongyue Wealth (maximum potential repurchase amount: 310 million yuan) and failing to fulfill disclosure obligations for four consecutive years, it was fined 4 million yuan by the Guangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau, and four executives including the chairman were fined a total of 6.5 million yuan [1][2]
• As of December 17, the total amount of new lawsuits and arbitrations of the company and its subsidiaries in the past 12 months was 99.55 million yuan, accounting for 10.65% of net assets [2]

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1. Extremely High Financial Risk
   : Guarantee balance accounts for 262% of net assets, asset-liability ratio is nearly 80%, cash to short-term debt ratio is only 0.19; any of these indicators shows the company is in a high-risk state

2. Insufficient Cash Generation from Main Business
   : Main business has lost money for many consecutive years, cumulative non-recurring losses exceed 2.1 billion yuan; although the water buffalo milk business has differentiated advantages, it is difficult to generate sufficient cash flow to cover debts in the short term

3. High Liquidity Pressure
   : Available guarantee quota is close to the upper limit, refinancing space is limited, facing debt default risk

4. Prominent Governance Hidden Risks
   : Punished for information disclosure violations, frequent lawsuits and arbitrations, internal control mechanism is ineffective

Huangshi Group is facing a typical “regional dairy enterprise trap” — trying to forcefully break through the boundaries set by industrial endowment and market laws with capital leverage, eventually leading to scattered strategic resources, sharply rising financial risks, and backlash against the foundation of the main business. Under the multiple pressures of high guarantee risk, tight liquidity, and continuous loss of main business, the company’s survival crisis is imminent.

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[1] Sina Finance - 《Huangshi Group: Can the “King of Water Buffalo Milk” Backlashed by Capital Leverage Survive?》(https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-02/doc-inhexrym4402754.shtml)

[2] Sina Finance - 《262% Net Asset Guarantee Overhead: Huangshi Dairy’s “Shortage of Money” Written on the First Page of 2025 Year-End Summary》(https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-31/doc-inhestek9096557.shtml)