2025 New Year's Day Travel Data Interpretation and Transportation & Tourism Sector Investment Analysis

The following analysis is based on the background information you provided and broker API/online search data, strictly distinguishing between facts, market performance and outlook, and prudently evaluating sustainability and investment implications.

• Statistical Scope and Coverage: Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that during the 2025 New Year’s Day holiday (Jan 1 to Jan 3), the cross-regional population mobility across the whole society is “estimated at 590 million person-times, up 19.5% year-on-year”. Among them, railway passenger volume is “estimated at 48.223 million person-times, a sharp increase of 53.1% year-on-year”, reflecting a significant rebound in travel demand.
• Interpretation of Growth Rates:
  • The 19.5% year-on-year growth rate is at a “high recovery slope” level after the pandemic, but as short-term holiday data, it is greatly affected by holiday duration, seasonal factors, weather, and the base of the same period last year;
  • The strong 53.1% growth in railway passenger transport is related to the recovery of transport capacity supply, off-peak travel structure, and the improvement of the high-speed rail network (online search shows that China’s high-speed rail network will exceed 50,000 kilometers by the end of 2025), showing a “volume increase” signal.
• Key Reminder: The growth rate of a single holiday should not be directly extrapolated to the annual sustainability; it needs to be continuously tracked and verified with subsequent holidays (especially the Spring Festival travel rush) and monthly passenger transport data.

• Clear Policy Orientation: Online search shows that the Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes “promoting domestic demand”, proposing “special actions to boost consumption” and “urban and rural residents’ income increase plan”, etc. The policy environment is conducive to the recovery of consumption and travel demand.
• Infrastructure and Supply Improvement: Online search information shows that China’s high-speed rail network is expected to exceed 50,000 kilometers in 2025, with improved transport capacity and accessibility, supporting the elasticity of railway passenger transport.
• Transition to Normalized Recovery After Weakening Low-Base Effect: Transition from high growth to normal growth rate, with the center gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels.

• Residents’ Budget Constraints: Online search shows that retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, which is “one of the lowest growth rates except during the pandemic”, reflecting that residents’ spending is still cautious, which will restrain optional consumption and travel elasticity.
• Rhythm of Income and Employment Recovery: If employment and income improvement are less than expected, consumption and travel cannot be “achieved overnight” relying solely on holiday pulses.
• Cost-side Fluctuations: Oil price fluctuations, exchange rates, and labor costs affect the profit margins of transportation enterprises.
• Competition and Price Sensitivity: The competitive pattern between high-speed rail and aviation, and fare strategies will affect the volume-price balance.
• External Environment: Macroeconomic cycles, geography, weather, and other disturbance factors need to be considered.

• Prudent Judgment: The 19.5% growth in New Year’s Day travel more reflects the “recovery slope”; whether it is sustainable needs rolling data verification, and it is not appropriate to directly extrapolate linearly to the whole year.
• Key Tracking Points: Subsequent Spring Festival/Spring Festival travel rush passenger volume and fare performance, monthly railway and civil aviation passenger transport data, retail sales and residents’ income recovery rhythm, oil prices/exchange rates/policy implementation rhythm.

• Rhythm Judgment: The recovery slope shows “holiday pulse, weakening in flat periods”, the recovery rhythm is non-linear, and dynamic evaluation needs to be carried out with “monthly data tracking + holiday verification”.
• More Significant Structural Differentiation:
  • Travel and Scene Recovery Type: Cultural tourism travel, hotels, duty-free, etc. benefit more;
  • Bulk and Optional Recovery is Slow: Durable goods and optional consumption are still constrained by budget.
• Policy Grasp: Special consumption promotion, residents’ income increase, and consumption scene optimization (including cultural tourism, festivals, night economy, etc.) help to improve the recovery slope.

Note: The following individual stock interval changes are the performance of the interval “2025-10-09 to 2025-12-31”, do not represent the full-year return, only for trend reference.

• Aviation (Elasticity + Cycle): China Southern Airlines (600029.SS) +34.40%, China Eastern Airlines (600115.SS) +46.70% (both interval gains). The volume-price recovery logic is clear: New Year’s Day travel high growth combined with reduced railway diversion pressure, business travel and family visit demand rebound; pay attention to oil prices, exchange rates, passenger load factor and fare elasticity.
• High-speed Rail/Railway Infrastructure (Stable High Dividend): Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway (601921.SS) -4.98% (interval decline). Fundamental improvement but stock price under pressure, mainly reflecting the lag in profit elasticity in the “strong volume and flat price” stage, and the need for dynamic evaluation of valuation and dividend attractiveness.
• Duty-free/Cultural Tourism (Scene Recovery + Consumption Upgrade): China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888.SS) +33.75% (interval gain). Benefiting from the recovery of outbound/inter-provincial travel and the expectation of downtown duty-free policies, but need to track customer unit price and policy implementation rhythm.
• Related Finance and Services: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (601318.SS) +24.27% (interval gain), benefiting from consumption and travel recovery expectations and marginal improvement on the asset side.

• Time Dimension: Short-term (holiday window and quarterly report verification) + medium-term (annual consumption and travel recovery slope) + long-term (pattern optimization and dividend/ROE recovery).
• Strategy Ideas:
  • High Elasticity: Aviation (volume-price recovery + low base), cultural tourism hotels and scenic spot chains (holiday consumption + scene recovery);
  • High Certainty: High-speed rail/hub assets (stable cash flow + potential dividend recovery), core scenic spots and duty-free leaders;
  • Risk Hedging: Assets sensitive to oil prices can be properly hedged, pay attention to cost improvement (unit cost reduction) and fare strategies.
• Risk and Position Management:
  • Before the holiday and quarterly report windows, you can choose the opportunity to increase positions in elastic varieties;
  • Track macro and consumption data, if the recovery is less than expected, reduce positions to hedge;
  • Valuation Protection: Lock in profits moderately at high levels during the valuation recovery process, and layout structural opportunities in the recovery rhythm.

• Passenger Transport Data: Monthly passenger volume, passenger load factor and average fare of railway and civil aviation;
• Macro and Consumption: Retail sales of consumer goods, CPI/PPI, residents’ disposable income and PMI;
• Policy and Cost: Implementation details of travel/consumption promotion policies, oil prices, exchange rates and labor costs;
• Company Level: Transport capacity investment, capital expenditure rhythm, balance sheet and dividend policy.

• The 19.5% growth in New Year’s Day travel is a “recovery signal” rather than a “full-year guarantee”; it has certain continuity but needs continuous verification with subsequent data (especially Spring Festival travel rush and monthly passenger transport);
• Policies and infrastructure provide “bottom support” for recovery, but residents’ income and budget constraints are still key variables for rhythm and magnitude;
• On the investment side, more emphasis is placed on “structure and rhythm”: aviation and cultural tourism have high recovery elasticity, high-speed rail assets have stable dividends; it is recommended to flexibly adjust positions during holiday and quarterly report verification windows, and attach importance to valuation protection and risk hedging.

(Note: The interval changes of individual stocks in the article are from “2025-10-09 to 2025-12-31”, from broker API market data; New Year’s Day travel and policy background are from user information and online search.)