Impact Analysis of Hong Kong's Strong Tourism Recovery and Events Economy on Valuation Enhancement of Local Retail, Tourism, and Hotel Sectors in Hong Kong Stocks

According to full-year 2025 data, Hong Kong received a total of

, with:

• Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 74%
  (approximately 36.93 million), remaining the main source of tourists
• Overseas visitors accounted for 26%
  (approximately 12.97 million), with a significant increase in proportion, reflecting the recovery of internationalization

###1.2 Events Economy Strategy Continues to Gain Traction
The Hong Kong SAR Government actively promotes the events economy, including:

• Star concerts (e.g., performances by international superstars like Lady Gaga)
• Lunar New Year series events
• Large-scale sports events such as the Hong Kong Sevens
• Cultural events like the Animation and Comics Expo

These events not only drive direct consumption but also significantly boost hotel occupancy rates, mall foot traffic, and catering industry revenue.

---

###2.1 Retail Real Estate Sector:

Company	Stock Code	Market Cap (HKD)	P/E Ratio	P/B Ratio	2025 Growth Rate	Rating
Sun Hung Kai Properties	0016.HK	279.93B	14.52x	0.45x	+39.39%	★★★★★
Wharf Holdings	0004.HK	68.21B	N/A	N/A	N/A	-
Swire Properties	0019.HK	86.96B	69.24x	0.36x	-8.67%	★★☆☆☆
Hysan Development	0014.HK	19.39B	-59.00x	N/A	N/A	-

• Strong Stock Performance
  :2025 growth rate reached
  39.39%
  , far exceeding the average performance of the Hang Seng Index
• Clear Valuation Advantage
  :P/E of14.52x and P/B of only0.45x, which is in the historical low range
• Financial Health
  :ROE of3.15%, net profit margin of24.18%, current ratio of3.36, low debt risk [0]
• Driven by Events Economy
  :Its malls like APM and New Town Plaza benefit from the spillover effect of concert foot traffic

• P/E as high as69.24x, significantly overvalued
• Stock price fell by8.67% in2025, underperforming the sector
• ROE of only0.47%, relatively weak profitability [0]

---

###2.2 Hotel Sector:

Company	Stock Code	Market Cap (HKD)	P/E Ratio	P/B Ratio	2025 Growth Rate	Rating
Shangri-La	0069.HK	17.06B	17.69x	0.42x	+14.29%	★★★★☆

• Steady Stock Price Growth
  :2025 growth rate of14.29%,6-month growth rate of
  8.11%
  , clear recovery trend [0]
• Strong Valuation Appeal
  :P/B of only0.42x, in a deeply discounted state
• Improved Free Cash Flow
  :Latest FCF reached HK$25.29 million, cash flow situation is improving [0]
• Significant Events Effect
  :Large concerts and international events drive demand for high-end hotels

:

• The increase in overseas visitors to26% helps boost occupancy rates of high-end hotels
• The events economy continues to drive growth, and occupancy rates are expected to recover to over85% in2026
• Consumption upgrade of Chinese tourists benefits luxury hotel brands

---

###2.3 Retail Sector:

Company	Stock Code	Market Cap (HKD)	P/E Ratio	2025 Growth Rate	Rating
Sasa International	0178.HK	1.86B	20.00x	0.00%	★★★☆☆
Bonjour Holdings	0183.HK	0.098B	-1.43x	N/A	★☆☆☆☆

• Stock price remained flat in2025, underperforming the sector average
• P/E of20.00x, not cheap in valuation
• Challenges Faced
  :
  • Average spending per Mainland Chinese customer decreased, consumption tends to be rational
  • Continuous impact from e-commerce, foot traffic in physical stores shifts online
  • Transforming to cross-border retail, expanding into South China and Hainan markets [1]

:

• Traditional retailers need to accelerate digital transformation and cross-border layout
• Cosmetics retail benefits from the local consumption atmosphere driven by the “events economy”
• However, the overall recovery momentum is weaker than that of the retail real estate and hotel sectors

---

###3.1 Consumption Upgrade Driven by Optimized Visitor Structure

Visitor Type	Proportion	Consumption Characteristics	Beneficiary Sectors
Mainland Chinese Visitors	74%	Higher unit price, tend to high-end shopping	Retail Real Estate, Luxury Hotels
Overseas Visitors	26%	Longer stay, diversified consumption	High-end Hotels, Catering

###3.2 Spillover Effect of Events Economy

• Concert Economy
  :Audiences drive consumption in surrounding catering, accommodation, and shopping
• Sports Events
  :Hong Kong Sevens and others attract high-spending groups
• Cultural Events
  :Animation expos and art exhibitions attract young consumer groups

###3.3 Capital Chasing Undervalued Assets

• The retail real estate sector has an overall P/B below0.5x, with significant discount
• Hong Kong stock prices are still attractive compared to other global financial centers
• Events economy boosts profit expectations, driving valuation recovery

---

###4.1 Macroeconomic Risks

• Slowdown in global economic growth
  may affect overseas visitors’ consumption willingness
• HKD pegged to USD
  leads to relatively high tourism costs
• Strength of China’s economic recovery
  determines Mainland Chinese visitors’ consumption capacity

###4.2 Industry Competition Risks

• Local residents’ consumption in the Mainland
  trend continues, diverting local retail business
• E-commerce platforms
  continue to impact physical retail formats
• Neighboring cities
  (e.g., Shenzhen, Macau) compete for tourism resources

###4.3 Geopolitical Risks

• Changes in international relations
  may affect overseas visitors’ willingness to come to Hong Kong
• Recurrence of the pandemic
  remains an unignorable variable

---

###5.1 Sector Allocation Recommendations (Based on2025 Data [0])

Sector	Allocation Recommendation	Logic	Focus Targets
Retail Real Estate	Overweight	Undervalued + Events Economy beneficiary + High recovery certainty	Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK)
Hotel	Neutral	Clear recovery trend + Reasonable valuation + Improved free cash flow	Shangri-La (0069.HK)
Retail	Underweight	Transformation pains + Fierce competition + Need to observe performance turnaround	Sasa International (0178.HK) (Watch)

###5.2 Key Recommended Targets

####

:

1. Clear Valuation Advantage
   :P/B of0.45x, deeply discounted, high margin of safety
2. Benefiting from Events Economy
   :Its core malls (APM, New Town Plaza, etc.) benefit from concert foot traffic
3. Financial Health
   :Low debt risk, abundant liquidity [0]
4. Strong Stock Performance
   :2025 growth rate of39.39%, leading the sector, trend established

:Based on P/B of0.6x (still 34% discount), target price is approximately HK$115.8 (upside potential of about20%)

####

:

1. Recovery Trend Established
   :6-month growth rate of8.11%, hotel occupancy rates continue to rise
2. Valuation Appeal
   :P/B of0.42x, lower than sector average
3. Improved Free Cash Flow
   :Latest FCF turned positive, profitability recovering [0]
4. Benefiting from Events Economy
   :Strong demand for high-end hotels

:Based on P/B of0.6x, target price is approximately HK$6.8 (upside potential of about42%)

###5.3 Sector Outlook (2026)

Sector	2026 Outlook	Key Catalysts
Retail Real Estate	Positive	Continued events + Valuation recovery + Dividend returns
Hotel	Positive	Rising occupancy rates + Higher room rates + Growth in overseas visitors
Retail	Neutral	Transformation pains + Intensified competition + Need to observe performance turnaround

---

:

1. Retail real estate sector
   is the
   biggest beneficiary
   of Hong Kong’s tourism recovery and events economy. Among them,
   Sun Hung Kai Properties
   leads the sector with a 39.39% annual growth rate, and its low valuation (P/B of0.45x) and strong financial health make it the top pick [0].

2. Hotel sector
   has established a recovery trend. Representative enterprises like
   Shangri-La
   benefit from the recovery of dual demand for business and tourism, with large valuation recovery space (P/B of0.42x).

3. Traditional retail sector
   faces transformation pressure. Enterprises like
   Sasa International
   need to accelerate digital transformation and cross-border layout, and their stock prices will underperform other sectors in the short term.

4. Spillover effect of events economy
   will continue to drive retail consumption, hotel occupancy rates, and mall rents up, thereby driving valuation recovery of related sectors.

:

• Short-term
  (1-3 months):Focus on trading opportunities during event-intensive periods (concerts, holidays)
• Medium-term
  (6-12 months):Hold undervalued retail real estate stocks and hotel stocks with high recovery certainty
• Long-term
  (over1 year):Layout leading enterprises with strong cash flow and dividend capacity

---

[0] Gilin API Data (Stock prices, financial indicators, valuation data, technical analysis, Python calculations)

[1] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “14億消費者神話褪色萬寧撤離映照外資零售困局” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/14億消費者神話褪色-萬寧撤離映照外資零售困局-035942797.html)

[2] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “2026香港市道預言：動漫節或變「新國風」 來年過鰲拜聖誕節” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/2026香港市道預言：動漫節或變「新國風」-來年過鰲拜聖誕節-015148121.html)