Assessment of the Support Strength of Global Box Office Recovery Trend on Disney (DIS) Valuation Repair

Based on comprehensive analysis,

, mainly reflected in:

• Short-term Catalyst
  : Disney’s 2025 global box office reached
  $6.58 billion
  , a record high since 2019, up 9.7% from 2024 [1]
• Valuation Space
  : Current stock price is $111.87, DCF base valuation is $119.79 (
  +7.1%
  ), optimistic scenario is $172.20 (
  +53.9%
  ) [0]
• Analyst Consensus
  : Target price is $140.00 (
  +25.1%
  ), with 60% of analysts giving a Buy rating [0]
• Recovery Progress
  : The recovery rate relative to the 2019 box office peak is
  59.3%
  , still with room for continuous repair [0]

Chart shows: DIS stock price fluctuated between $110-$120 in 2025, currently at the midpoint of the trading range

---

[1,2]:

• Global Box Office Total
  : $6.58 billion (North America: $2.49 billion + International: $4.08 billion)
• Annual Ranking
  : Disney ranked first in global box office for the 9th consecutive year
• Billion-dollar Blockbusters
  : 3 films (Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Lilo & Stitch)
• Number of Viewers
  : Approximately 700 million globally watched Disney films

:

• Box office exceeded
  700 million RMB
• Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 ranked among the top three in the period
• Shows continued recovery of audience viewing habits post-pandemic

Chart shows: Disney’s global box office recovered from the 2020 low of $2.8 billion to $6.58 billion in 2025, with a recovery rate of 59.3% relative to the 2019 peak of $11.1 billion

:

• North American Market
  : $2.49 billion in 2025, accounting for 37.8% of global box office, with steady recovery
• International Market
  : $4.08 billion, accounting for 62.0%, becoming the main growth engine
• Asia-Pacific Region
  : Animated films like Zootopia 2 performed excellently, with significant contributions from the Chinese market

:

• Animated Films
  : Zootopia 2 became the highest-grossing film in Disney’s animation history
• Sci-fi Blockbusters
  : Avatar 3 had a global opening of $347 million, second only to Avatar 2 in 2022
• Family-oriented Content
  : High-end screenings like IMAX contributed significantly, increasing per-screen ARPU

---

:

• Studio entertainment revenue accounts for approximately
  22%
  of total revenue [0]
• Box office revenue (theatrical): Approximately $658 million (direct cash flow)
• Backend Revenue Chain
  : Streaming licensing (Disney+, Hulu) + Home Entertainment (Blu-ray/DVD) + TV licensing (ABC, ESPN) + Merchandise licensing (accounting for approximately 18% of total revenue)

:

• Studio segment profit margin is approximately
  35%
  , one of the company’s highest-margin businesses
• Box office blockbusters not only contribute theatrical revenue but also amplify value through
  IP full-life-cycle monetization
• Studio revenue is expected to grow by
  8-12%
  year-on-year in 2025

(accounting for 34% of revenue) [0]:

• IP Popularity Transmission
  : Box office blockbusters directly increase tourists’ willingness to visit parks
• New Theme Area Investment
  : The Zootopia theme area will attract客流 and extend stay time
• Merchandise Sales
  : Related IP merchandise sales increase (an important part of retail revenue)
• Profit Margin
  : Experience business profit margin is as high as
  25%
  , and box office-driven passenger flow growth has greater profit elasticity

:

• Box office success increases IP value and improves licensing bargaining power
• Merchandise licensing revenue lags box office by 1-2 quarters, forming a continuous revenue stream

Chart shows: Among Disney’s business segments, theme parks/experiences (34%) and media entertainment (28%) are core pillars; DCF base valuation is $119.79, analyst target price is $140, indicating valuation repair space

:

• Theatrical blockbusters are launched on Disney+ after the window period, increasing subscription value
• Box office performance verifies content quality, optimizing content investment decisions
• Disney+ content cost yield increased in 2025, narrowing subsidies