Analysis of A-share Market Style Shift in 2026: Can Resource Products Take Over the Tech Main Line?

: In 2025, the A-share market was dominated by the tech main line throughout the year, with the AI computing power sector performing particularly well. According to web search data, the “Yizhongtian” portfolio (Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, Tianfu Communication) saw annual stock price increases of over 400%, 400%, and 200% respectively; Cambricon rose by 100.52%, and Foxconn Industrial Internet rose by 216.41%[1]. These stock explosions reflect the entry of AI infrastructure construction into the capital expenditure expansion period, with optical modules, CPO, computing power chips, and other sub-sectors becoming the focus of capital pursuit.

: The 2025 A-share market showed three major characteristics: “accelerated rotation but persistent main line, resonance between performance and themes, capital concentration towards leaders”[1]. The frequency of sector switching increased, but core main lines such as tech and high-end manufacturing had strong sustainability; targets with order verification and high performance growth were more favored by capital; leading enterprises in various tracks saw significantly higher growth than the industry average, with obvious leading effects.

: According to brokerage analysis, from the September 24, 2024 market rally to October 2025, A-shares mainly演绎了 the first two phases of the bull market—“Value Reassessment Period” and “Capital Inflow Period”, both of which were characterized by valuation expansion and capital inflow. From November 2025 to 2026, the bull market will enter the third phase, the “Prosperity Verification Period”, with market characteristics showing that the index will still oscillate upward but with slower growth. , and industry style rotation will be more frequent[3].

: The AI market has continued for three years since its outbreak in 2023. After three years of growth, the AI computing power sector will face valuation digestion pressure in 2026. Although this AI cycle is sustainable, based on verifiable demand growth and clear industrial bottlenecks, investors need to be alert to the pullback risk of theme stocks with excessive early gains and lack of performance support[1].

: Many well-known analysts point out that 2026 will be a , and industrial product prices are expected to continue to recover. With the recovery of PPI, the current upward cycle of A-shares is transitioning from the “second phase of the bull market” driven by liquidity and risk appetite, where high-growth tracks dominate, to the “third phase of the bull market” driven by profit improvement, and the pro-cyclical style is expected to continue to dominate[1].

: Against the background of the reshaping of US dollar credit and the resonance of global fiscal policies, commodities, especially , have both their monetary and commodity attributes revalued, and related sectors have medium-to-long-term allocation value[1]. This is consistent with the view of CSC Financial, which believes that resource products are likely to become a new main line direction for A-shares after the tech main line[2].

: Global new energy transformation, power grid upgrading, AI data center construction, etc., provide long-term support for the demand for industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. On the supply side, due to insufficient capital expenditure, decline in mine grade, environmental protection restrictions, and other factors, the supply-demand pattern continues to improve. CSC Financial explicitly lists as one of the key industries to focus on in 2026[2].

: Although the global energy transformation continues to advance, traditional energy will still play an important role during the transition period. Factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, OPEC+ production cut policies, and global demand recovery expectations may provide support for the oil and petrochemical sector.

: Some chemical products are expected to enter an upward prosperity cycle due to capacity clearance, downstream demand recovery, and restricted new capacity. Especially chemical sub-sectors related to new materials and new energy have growth attributes.

: After a long period of adjustment, the valuation of the new energy sector is at a relatively low level. With factors such as technological progress (e.g., solid-state batteries), cost reduction, and policy support, sub-sectors such as energy storage, photovoltaics, and wind power are expected to usher in a new prosperity cycle[2].

In 2026, the market driving logic will shift from valuation to profit, and investors will pay more attention to

[2]. This means:

• Performance Certainty
  becomes the core of stock selection: The resource products sector benefits from price increases and capacity release, with large performance elasticity
• Relative Valuation Advantage
  : Compared with the high valuation of the tech sector, the resource products sector generally has lower valuation and a margin of safety
• Style Rotation Demand
  : The market needs a new main line to continue the upward momentum of the tech sector

Based on the judgment that “tech and resource products are regarded as the two major investment main lines in 2026”[3], the following allocation framework is recommended:

:

• AI Hardware
  : Advanced semiconductors, memory chips (HBM), high-speed networks, liquid cooling, and other sub-sectors with early performance realization periods
• Domestic Substitution
  : Domestic computing power breakthroughs, AI application landing (intelligent driving, AI+office, AI+education, etc.)
• Cutting-edge Tech
  : Commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, etc.[1]

:

• Non-ferrous Metals
  : Copper, aluminum, small metals, etc., focusing on leading companies with resource and cost advantages
• Basic Chemicals
  : New materials, fine chemicals, etc., focusing on enterprises with technological barriers and integrated advantages
• Oil and Petrochemicals
  : Focus on leading enterprises with resource and refining-integration advantages
• New Energy
  : Energy storage, solid-state batteries, nuclear power, etc.[2]

:

• High dividend varieties as basic allocation, held for the long term to smooth fluctuations during market pullbacks
• Large-cap value sectors such as banks and insurance benefit from the decline in risk-free interest rates and long-term capital allocation to dividends[1]

: Tech growth still has performance opportunities

• There will be at least one wave of opportunities for tech growth before spring
• Pay attention to performance forecasts and annual report disclosures to find targets with exceeding performance expectations
• Be alert to valuation pullback risks due to underperformance

: Gradually increase resource products allocation

• With PPI recovery and economic data verification, gradually increase allocation to pro-cyclical sectors
• Pay attention to industrial metal price trends and supply-demand data
• Grasp the performance release window period of the resource products sector

: Full bull market launch, “cycle sets the stage, growth performs”

• Phase 2.0 of the bull market, “cycle sets the stage, growth performs”[3]
• Pro-cyclical sectors lead the index breakthrough, tech industry trends and increased global influence of manufacturing become the main line
• Market style is more balanced, with relative balance between large and small caps

:

• Avoid concentrated positions in a single track
• Reduce volatility through a “stable + growth + hedge” portfolio
• Moderate balance between industries and styles

:

• High-prosperity tracks need to navigate short-term volatility
• Avoid ultra-short-term frequent trading
• Can adopt a band trading strategy of buying low and selling high

:

• Be alert to the pullback risk of theme stocks with excessive early gains and lack of performance support
• In months of concentrated financial report releases, avoid targets with excessive gains but no performance
• Pay attention to risks such as China-US trade frictions, insufficient domestic demand, and real estate

:

• Order Verification: Tech leaders who can get orders and deliver performance
• Reasonable Valuation: Relatively reasonable PEG, avoiding pure concept speculation
• Technological Barriers: Have core technological advantages and moats
• Performance Realization: Companies that can deliver high expected performance in 2026

:

• Resource Endowment: Have high-quality resource reserves or cost advantages
• Capacity Release: Have new capacity commissioning or increased capacity utilization
• Price Elasticity: Large performance elasticity brought by product price increases
• Integrated Advantage: Enterprises with integrated industrial chain layout

1. Tech Sector Pullback Risk
   : After three years of growth, the tech sector faces valuation digestion pressure, so be alert to structural/phased pullback risks[2]

2. Resource Products Price Increase Below Expectations
   : If global economic recovery is below expectations or geopolitical risks ease, resource products prices may have limited growth

3. Insufficient Domestic Demand
   : The strength of domestic economic recovery may affect the pace and extent of corporate profit improvement

4. Trade Frictions
   : Comprehensive game between China and the US may have an important impact on A-share investment

5. Style Shift Failure
   : If resource products cannot effectively take over tech, the market may enter a shock consolidation period

: In 2026, the A-share market is expected to shift from tech single-wheel drive to “tech + resource products” dual-wheel drive. In the third phase of the bull market, the “prosperity verification period”, will become the core drivers of the market. The resource products sector has multiple supports such as macro environment, industrial logic, and valuation advantages, and is expected to become a new direction after the tech main line.

: Adopt a “dual-wheel drive” allocation framework, balance allocation between tech and resource products, grasp the rhythm of style rotation, focus on performance verification, and control drawdown risks. At the key timing of style shift, maintain allocation flexibility, not only grasp the structural opportunities of the tech sector but also attach importance to the takeover potential of the resource products sector.

---

[0] Jinling API Data

[1] How much upside potential does the A-share market have in 2026? Three experts Yang Delong, Zhang Xia, Qiu Xiaobing say this - 163.com (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIBC5FKL0519BOCB.html)

[2] CSC Financial 2026 Investment Outlook: Seize the New Main Line of A-share Resource Products - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2026-01-03/doc-inhezqrp3581818.shtml)

[3] A-share Outlook: Bull Market 2.0 - Securities Times (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3568294.html)