Tourism Industry Recovery and Ctrip (TCOM) Investment Value Analysis

According to the latest market data, the 2026 New Year’s Day holiday tourism market showed

, fully verifying the strong recovery momentum of cultural and tourism consumption:

• Scenic spot ticket bookings
  increased by over
  4x
  year-on-year [0]
• Hotel booking popularity
  rose by more than
  3x
  year-on-year (data from LY.com)
• Flight bookings to popular destinations
  grew by
  26%
  year-on-year (data from Qunar.com)
• Cross-regional population flow nationwide
  is expected to exceed
  208 million person-times
  on New Year’s Day, up
  21%
  year-on-year

The inbound tourism market has seen a

, mainly due to:

• Continuous advancement of China’s visa facilitation policies
• Steady recovery of international flight capacity
• Expansion of visa-free country scope
• Improved payment convenience for inbound tourism

Based on data analysis, the current tourism recovery

:

• Concentrated release of demand suppressed by the pandemic
• Holiday bookings show multiple growth
• Short-term growth may slow down

• Change in consumption habits
  : Increased emphasis on travel experiences post-pandemic
• Continuous consumption upgrade
  : Growing demand for high-quality tourism products
• Technology-driven
  : Rising proportion of online bookings
• Dual circulation of outbound and inbound tourism
  : Balanced development of international tourism market

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According to the latest data, Ctrip demonstrates

and [0]:

Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Market Capitalization	$49 billion	Global online travel leader
Current Stock Price	$74.49	Up 11.02% in 2025 [0]
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	19.16x	Reasonable valuation level
Net Profit Margin	31.50%	Industry-leading
Return on Equity (ROE)	12.53%	Excellent capital return
Current Ratio	1.33	Good liquidity
Debt Risk Level	Low Risk	Financially stable

2024 Business Composition [0]:

• Accommodation booking services
  : 40.5% (main revenue source)
• Transportation ticketing services
  : 38.0% (second growth curve)
• Package tours
  : 8.1%
• Corporate travel
  : 4.7%

• China Market
  : 85.5% (core market)
• International Market
  :14.5% (great growth potential)

Technical indicators show [0]:

• Trend Judgment
  : Sideways consolidation, no clear direction
• Support Level
  : $71.29
• Resistance Level
  : $72.53
• Beta Coefficient
  : -0.13 (low correlation with market, independent trend)
• Annual Volatility
  :38.99% (medium-high volatility)

2025 Stock Price Performance [0]:

• Yearly High
  : $78.65
• Yearly Low
  : $51.35
• Price Range
  :53.2% (high volatility)
• Annual Return
  : +11.02%

According to DCF valuation model (three-scenario analysis) [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	Relative to Current Stock Price	Probability
Conservative	$110.52	+48.4%	30%
Base Case	$336.39	+351.6%	50%
Optimistic	$-516.98	-794.0%	20%

• Revenue Growth Rate (5-year CAGR)
  :30.6%
• EBITDA Margin
  :11.4%
• WACC
  :3.5%
• Beta Coefficient
  : -0.13

: Based on the base case, Ctrip has significant , but note that valuation is highly sensitive to growth assumptions.

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###3.1 Core Competitive Advantages

1. Brand and User Base
   • Leader in China’s online travel market
   • Large user ecosystem and loyalty

2. Supply Chain Control
   • In-depth cooperation with hotels and airlines
   • Strong exclusive resource acquisition capability

3. Technical Strength
   • AI-driven personalized recommendations
   • Big data analysis capability

###3.2 Innovation Layout: Trip Community Ecosystem

In December 2025, Ctrip launched the **