2026 A-Share Capital Market Conditions and Structural Investment Opportunities

Based on obtained securities firm data and web search results, a systematic assessment of the 2026 A-share capital flows and structural opportunities is conducted as follows:

• The scale of public offering funds entering the market after New Year’s Day 2026 has exceeded 430 billion yuan: 16 upcoming ETFs amount to approximately 50 billion yuan (mainly individual investors, accounting for over 90% of shares), and more than 60 newly positioned active equity funds amount to over 380 billion yuan [1][2]. This indicates that off-exchange funds are flowing in an orderly manner, with a structure leaning toward “individuals + funds.”
• Institutional forecast: Driven by “asset shortage” and “wealth effect,” the supply and demand of A-share capital in 2026 is expected to continue a large-scale net inflow, with a scale of approximately 1.56 trillion yuan [1][2][3].

• Potential activation funds from maturing time deposits: In 2026, 20.7 trillion yuan (2-year term), 9.6 trillion yuan (3-year term), and 1.3 trillion yuan (5-year term) of resident time deposits will mature, an increase of approximately 4 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [2]. In a low-interest rate environment, some funds are expected to flow into equity assets through rights-inclusive wealth management, fund fixed investment, ETFs, and other forms.
• Institutional expectation: The non-time deposit investment field is expected to see an additional 2-4 trillion yuan of activated funds in 2026 [2][4] (see the Resident Savings Activation Potential Trend Chart [2] for details).
• Medium- to long-term path: Wealth management institutions are expected to gradually increase their equity positions (estimated to rise to 2.3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027), which may bring nearly 1 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the market in total [2].

• Public fund issuance: If the market effectively breaks through the loss-turning resistance level, issuance is expected to recover significantly, while the redemption pressure of active funds may ease [1][3].
• Insurance funds: Under the background of policy encouragement to steadily increase the proportion of equity allocation and lower risk factors, insurance funds are a relatively certain increment [1][3].
• Private equity and foreign capital: The profit-making effect of private equity is expected to continue to attract high-net-worth funds; the appreciation of the RMB and changes in the external interest rate environment may attract foreign capital inflows, but the absolute scale may be less than domestic capital [1][3].

• Condition A (Profit and ROE Repair): A-share revenue and profit growth bottomed out and rebounded in 2025, with ROE stabilizing; if profit growth and ROE continue to repair in 2026, the market will transition from “liquidity + risk preference-driven” to “profit improvement-driven” [5][6].
• Condition B (Valuation and Capital Rhythm): The current overall valuation is in a reasonable range, but the previous gains have been relatively sufficient; if the inflow rhythm of incremental funds is stable and profit improvement continues, the resonance of valuation expansion and profit growth will help the “slow bull” to continue [5][6][8].
• Risk warning: If external shocks, profit fulfillment falling short of expectations, or the inflow rhythm of funds slows down, index fluctuations and style switching may intensify [5][6][7].

• Valuation and game: After a year of growth, the valuations of some high-quality directions have fully reflected the prospects, leading to intensified market games and increased volatility [5][7][8].
• Critical verification period: 2026 will be a critical year for the transition from “valuation driven by capital expenditure expansion” to “performance verification relay”; most links are still in the first stage, and a few have entered the performance fulfillment period. Genuine growth and high-prosperity segments need to be carefully screened [5][7][8][13].
• Strategy shift: From generalized holding in 2025 to in-depth research on industrial rhythm, technical routes, customer stickiness, and business models in 2026 [5][7][13].

• Optical communication and high-speed upgrade: The logic of volume and price increase is clear, and the delivery capacity of leading optical module manufacturers is the key [7][10][13].
• Memory chips: Supply-demand improvement and prosperity cycle, high prosperity is expected to run through the whole year of 2026; HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is supported by AI demand [7][10][13].
• Domestic computing power breakthrough: Under the logic of autonomy and supply chain security, domestic chip manufacturers are supplementing single-card performance with multi-card clusters, and the demand for supporting components such as liquid cooling, power supplies, PCBs, OCS, and hollow-core optical fibers is increasing [7][10][13].
• AI application landing: Looking for “killer” scenarios, focusing on vertical fields with clear commercialization paths such as intelligent driving, AI+office, and AI+education [5][7][8][13].

• Domestic substitution from “substitution” to “substitution and innovation”: The current overall localization rate of chips is about 25%, with a long-term target of about 70%, which has both space and time dimensions [12].
• Focus directions: Semiconductor equipment, materials, advanced packaging, advanced memory, and the capital expenditure and order landing rhythm related to advanced processes [12][13].

• Pro-cyclical drive: If PPI recovery resonates with the global manufacturing inventory replenishment cycle, directions such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, chemicals, steel, construction machinery, construction, and real estate chains are expected to benefit from price and profit margin repair [5][6][7][8].
• Value repair logic: After the economy enters a steady state, the value sector (traditional brand consumption, high-dividend assets, etc.) is expected to usher in a valuation repair window, characterized by “value return as the main line, superimposed with thematic performance” [5][6][7][8].

• Strategy framework: It is recommended to adopt a “core + satellite” portfolio: core positions focus on genuine growth assets with clear industrial trends and high performance visibility; satellite positions appropriately layout policy-sensitive and transactional opportunities to achieve a balance between risk and return [6].
• Position and rhythm: Attach importance to rhythm control and industry selection sensitivity, balance large and small-cap styles, and dynamically adjust weights between technology and value [5][6][7][8].
• Key monitoring: Profit fulfillment progress, capital inflow rhythm, changes in external macro and industrial policies [5][6][7][8][13].

• 2026 A-share Capital Flows and Structural Opportunities Analysis Chart: The left two sub-charts respectively show the “Post-New Year’s Day 2026 Public Offering Fund Entry Structure” (ETF ≈50 billion yuan / active equity ≈380 billion yuan) and the “Resident Savings Activation Potential Trend” (2-4 trillion yuan range); the lower two sub-charts present the “2026 Structural Opportunity Direction Score” and the “Tech Investment Difficulty / Return Potential Comparison” (investment difficulty increases, excess returns rely more on stock selection). This chart is a framework visualization based on public information collation, used to assist understanding and does not constitute trading advice [1][2][5][6][7][8][10][12][13].

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] Southern Finance / Securities Times - 2026 Public Offering Fund Entry and Savings Activation Overview (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601033607663344.html)
[2] Securities China - 430 Billion Yuan Public Offering Funds Entering the Market in the New Year and Resident Savings Activation Calculation (https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202601033607656841.html)
[3] The Paper - Shanghai Composite Index Closes with 11 Consecutive Gains, Institutions Look Forward to 2026 Slow Bull (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32294048)
[4] Institutional Views - Capital Supply and Demand and Resident Savings Activation (2025-2026) (Charts and calculations are cited from relevant reports in web search results)
[5] East Money - Institutions Analyze 2026: Slow Bull, Tech Main Line and Investment Difficulty (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601023607522332.html)
[6] Tencent News - 2026 A-share Opening: Structural Opportunities Remain the Key to Success (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251230A01I1700)
[7] China Energy News Network - Institutions Analyze 2026: Tech Main Line and Investment Difficulty (https://www.cnenergynews.cn/article/4Pn3fL6pI9H)
[8] East Money - Shanghai Composite Index Closes with 11 Consecutive Gains and Capital Flow Outlook (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KI546VGM0519BOCB.html)
[9] East Money - 2026 A-share Upside Potential: Three Institutional Views (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIBC5FKL0519BOCB.html)
[10] Securities Times - Institutions Are Optimistic About Computing Power Industry Chain Investment Opportunities (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3561660.html)
[11] Sina Finance - AI Drives Structural Transition of Semiconductor Industry (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2025-12-30/doc-inhequpk4183074.shtml)
[12] NetEase - Tech Track 2026: AI Innovation + Autonomy (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KI48E1NG0552KYAK.html)
[13] Sina Finance - 2025 Computing Power Stocks Doubled Frequently and 2026 Valuation Digest Pressure (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-03/doc-inheyaqf4219171.shtml)

: The above content is sorted out and frame-analyzed based on public data and institutional views, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has uncertainties; please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance and professional investment advisor opinions.