Winter-Spring Cultural Tourism Recovery Trend, Passenger Flow Growth, and Investment Insights for the Cultural Tourism Sector

The number of visitors to Dunhuang Mogao Grottoes on New Year’s Day 2024 increased by approximately 30% year-on-year, mainly consisting of young individual tourists with significant growth in out-of-province and inbound visitors. This local phenomenon exactly reflects the overall recovery of national cultural tourism consumption: in 2024, China’s tourism and tourism industry contributed nearly 12 trillion yuan in total, and it is expected to grow by more than 10% to 13.7 trillion yuan in 2025, creating 1.3 million new jobs, indicating that policy and consumption support are still continuing. Jiangcheng’s report shows that after the border reopening in 2024, inbound tourists reached 132 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, indicating that opening-up and consumption facilitation have created strong attractiveness for cross-border tourists, with most coming from Malaysia, Australia, Singapore, etc. Their consumption capacity and preferences are highly aligned with cultural tourism IPs, verifying the appeal of Dunhuang as a typical cultural landmark [0][1][2].

1. Consumption Boundaries Extend to Cultural Tourism Content and Experiences
   : Cultural tourism performance companies represented by Songcheng Performance (300144.SZ) have high-margin, strong IP performance projects and mature ticketing platforms. Currently, their net profit margin and solvency are leading in the industry (net profit margin 35%, quick ratio over 6x), but their stock price is still lower than pre-pandemic levels [0]. Dunhuang’s passenger flow emphasizes “young + individual tourists + cultural landmarks”, indicating that in the future, light asset models such as cultural tourism performances, night tours, and digital immersive experiences will be easier to quickly connect with users and improve repurchase rates. Therefore, in the cultural tourism sector, priority should be given to companies with independent IP, rich operation and management capabilities, and high cash flow.

2. Retail Links Benefit Significantly Under Dual Drivers of Cross-border and Local Consumption
   : The recovery of inbound tourism promotes the recovery of duty-free and scenic spot retail consumption. Duty-free leaders under China Tourism Group (such as 601888.SS) have high liquidity and high ROE, but their current valuation is still high (PE over 57x), meaning investors need to pay more attention to profit release rhythm and inventory efficiency [0]. If “culture + retail” (such as Dunhuang cultural and creative products, peripheral products, cross-border digital channels) is further promoted, it can increase tourists’ single consumption amount and extend the life cycle.

3. Capital Safe Haven in Segmented Tracks with High Marginal Returns and Policy Synergy
   : Dunhuang’s passenger flow is driven by young groups and out-of-province/inbound tourists, indicating the need for capabilities such as “channel-style” pre-sales, data-based operations, and OTA cooperation. It is recommended to focus on segmented targets with digital ticketing platforms, private domain operation capabilities, and controllable operation costs, as well as scenic operators with stable management and expected cash flow, to prevent subsequent liquidity and off-peak season risks.

From the data and policy dimensions, the recovery has a sustainable foundation:

• Demand Side
  : Winter leisure tourism in 2024-2025 is expected to drive 520 million trips and over 630 billion yuan in operating income, showing that demand has not weakened significantly even in the second half of the peak season, indicating consumers’ continued interest in culture + scenic spots + festivals [4].
• Supply Side + Policy Side
  : Inbound tourists increase consumption frequency using new mechanisms such as digital payment and visa convenience; visa exemption and electronic payment environment optimization are further reducing cross-border friction [2][3]. If the central and local governments continue to promote the linkage of “service industry + cultural heritage”, the marketing and operation efficiency of cultural tourism enterprises is expected to further improve.
• Capital Side
  : If macro interest rates remain stable, people’s disposable income and travel willingness increase, and cultural tourism consumption still has room for expansion. However, factors such as tight budgets, traffic capacity constraints, and extreme weather need to be警惕 for short-term fluctuations.

Conclusion: Dunhuang’s passenger flow growth is a signal of the revival of cultural tourism consumption, emphasizing young people, individual tourists, and cross-regional composite demand. In terms of risk control, priority should be given to companies with digital operation, stable cash flow, and main businesses focused on inbound + urban young consumption, such as high-quality performance and scenic operators, and avoid pure retail duty-free with overvalued valuations. If more segmented scenic spot financial indicators, ticket/hotel linkage data, or industry models are needed, in-depth research mode can be considered to further挖掘 source data.

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] Hotel News Resource - “China’s Travel & Tourism Sector Predicted to Reach Record Highs by 2025” (https://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article136406.html)
[2] Tourism Review - “NEW PAYMENT ECOSYSTEM HELPS CHINA’S INBOUND TOURISM BOOM” (https://www.tourism-review.com/chinese-tourism-benefits-from-new-payment-ecosystem-news15243)
[3] Travel Weekly - “Relaxed visa policies give China tourism a boost” (https://www.travelweekly.com/Asia-Travel/Relaxed-visa-policies-give-China-tourism-a-boost)
[4] Tourism Review - “CHINA EXCEEDS US$87 BILLION IN WINTER TOURISM REVENUE” (https://www.tourism-review.com/winter-tourism-in-china-reported-record-revenues-news14809)