2026 New Year's Day Holiday Consumption Recovery Data and Investment Analysis of the Big Consumption Sector

According to the latest data analysis, the 21% year-on-year increase in personnel flow during the New Year’s Day holiday is indeed an important signal of consumption recovery. Below I provide a comprehensive investment analysis from multiple dimensions:

According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the cross-regional personnel flow across the whole society on the first day of the 2026 New Year’s Day holiday (January 1) reached

, an increase of 21% year-on-year [1]. Detailed breakdown data [2]:

• Railway passenger volume
  : 18.25 million person-times, up 65.1% year-on-year
• Civil aviation passenger volume
  : 1.95 million person-times, up 12.6% year-on-year
• Highway personnel flow
  : 187.26 million person-times, up 18.1% year-on-year

This indicates that travel demand has fully recovered to normal levels with significant growth.

[3]:

• Tourists’ footprints covered 698 cities worldwide
• Domestic hotel booking popularity increased by over 3 times year-on-year
• Hotel occupancy in popular areas increased by 1.2 times year-on-year
• High-star hotels grew the fastest, reaching 1.6 times

[1][3]:

• Harbin
  : Received 1.405 million tourists, up 11.4% year-on-year; out-of-province tourists increased by 18.2%
• Hainan Free Trade Port
  : Sanya’s inbound tourists increased by 5 times year-on-year; flight ticket growth to Haikou and Sanya ranked highest nationwide
• Liaoning Province
  : Received 3.1917 million tourists, up 19.45% year-on-year; comprehensive tourism revenue was 2.254 billion yuan, up 20.51% year-on-year

[1]:

• 2026 New Year’s Day box office exceeded 300 million yuan, up over 10% year-on-year
• Performance events drove商圈 consumption, with related hotel booking popularity increasing by more than 2 times year-on-year

According to brokerage API data [0], leading companies in the big consumption sector have performed actively around New Year’s Day:

• China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888.SS)
  : Rose 8.79% on December 26, then 4.41% on December 31; cumulative increase of 13.35% in 1 month, 35.75% in 3 months, and 46.15% in 1 year. Market capitalization reached 184.6 billion USD, with a P/E ratio of 57.54 times [0].

• China Eastern Airlines (600115.SS)
  : Rose 5.82% on December 31, reflecting strong expectations of aviation tourism recovery.

• Jinjiang Hotels (600754.SS)
  : Rose 3.57% on December 31, benefiting from the growth in demand for high-star hotels.

• Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS)
  : Performed relatively steadily, fluctuating around 1,400 yuan.

According to US stock market data, the Consumer Cyclical sector fell 1.74% on January 2, making it the worst-performing sector of the day [0]. This may reflect:

• Short-term profit-taking pressure
• Market观望 attitude towards the sustainability of consumption
• Capital rotation to high-dividend, low-valuation sectors

(Verified)

• Personnel flow has returned to normal, reflecting strong demand for basic consumption such as travel and tourism
• High-frequency data like hotel bookings and scenic spot passenger flow verify the recovery trend

(In Progress)

• High-star hotels grew by 1.6 times, indicating consumers pay more attention to quality experience
• Both inbound and outbound tourism are booming, reflecting the recovery of consumer confidence
• Optional consumption like duty-free shopping and high-end cultural tourism is starting to pick up

(To Be Observed)

• Emotional consumption, personalized consumption, and experiential consumption have become new trends
• Digital and intelligent consumption scenarios are accelerating penetration

According to the latest brokerage research reports and online search information [4][5][6]:

• Logic
  : New Year’s Day data verifies strong tourism demand, which is expected to continue as the Spring Festival approaches
• Key Targets
  :
  • Duty-free shopping: China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888.SS) - Benefits from Hainan’s customs closure and recovery of outbound tourism
  • Aviation: China Eastern Airlines (600115.SS), China Southern Airlines, etc. - Supply-demand improvement and fare increase
  • Hotels: Jinjiang Hotels (600754.SS) - High-end trend and RevPAR improvement
  • Travel agencies/OTA: CYTS, Ctrip Group, etc. - High elasticity from outbound tourism recovery

• Logic
  : Moutai sales were booming during the New Year’s Day period, and demand for high-end liquor remains strong
• Key Targets
  :
  • High-end liquor: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS), Wuliangye - Deep brand moat
  • Mid-to-high end: Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu - Expected to benefit from the recovery of business banquets
  • Beer/Dairy: Tsingtao Beer, Yili Group - Benefit from the “dividend + marginal repair” strategy

• Logic
  : Strong demand for experiential consumption like performance events and hot spring vacations
• Key Directions
  :
  • Chain catering: Expected to benefit from passenger flow recovery and average customer price increase
  • Scenic spot operation: Changbai Mountain, Dalian Sun Asia, etc. (ice and snow tourism targets)
  • Sports events and performance venue operation

• Logic
  : Policy guidance shifts from price competition to service quality improvement
• Key Directions
  :
  • High-end retail: Benefits from wealth effect transmission
  • Regional retail leaders: Have supply chain advantages
  • Digital retail: Instant retail, community group buying, and other new models

(1-2 months):

• Spring Rally Layout
  : Brokerages generally are optimistic about the 2026 spring market, suggesting early布局 of targets benefiting from the New Year’s Day and Spring Festival consumption peak
• High-to-low rotation
  : Focus on high-quality consumer stocks with relatively low valuations and high dividend rates, such as white goods and beer
• Event-driven
  : Pay attention to thematic opportunities like Hainan’s customs closure, ice and snow tourism, and Spring Festival consumption

(3-6 months):

• Service Consumption Main Line
  : Guosen Securities emphasizes that 2026 may be the “Year of Service Consumption”, focusing on hotels, tourism, education, medical care, etc. [6]
• Supply-side Optimization
  : Focus on industries with improved supply-demand patterns, such as aviation (capacity constraints) and high-star hotels (scarcity)
• New Consumption Models
  : Focus on emotional consumption (trendy toys, gold jewelry, domestic beauty), personalized consumption, etc.

(Over 1 Year):

• Overseas Expansion + Global Assets
  : High-quality companies with global competitiveness like home appliances and furniture
• Technological Innovation
  : AI + consumption applications, smart home, wearable devices, etc.
• Silver Economy
  : Demand for medical care, health care, tourism, etc. brought by population aging

• Macroeconomic Fluctuations
  : If economic recovery is less than expected, consumer confidence may be hit
• Valuation Risk
  : Valuations of some leading consumer companies are no longer cheap, so callback risks need to be vigilant
• Policy Changes
  : The intensity and rhythm of consumption promotion policies may affect sector performance
• External Factors
  : Geopolitics, exchange rate fluctuations, etc. may affect outbound tourism and overseas consumption

The 21% year-on-year increase in personnel flow during the New Year’s Day holiday is a

, but investment decisions require :

1. Not all consumption will recover synchronously
   : Travel and tourism, high-end services, and experiential consumption perform prominently, while traditional retail and general optional consumption may still take time

2. Focus on “quality” rather than “quantity”
   : High-star hotels grew by 1.6 times, far exceeding the overall level, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrade

3. Short-term event-driven, long-term fundamentals
   : Holidays like New Year’s Day and Spring Festival bring short-term catalysts, but sustainability depends on corporate profitability and industry prosperity

4. Balance between valuation and growth
   : Pay attention to both high-growth targets (like duty-free, OTA) and stable varieties with reasonable valuations and high dividend rates (like white goods, beer)

: (1) Focus on three main lines: ; (2) Adopt a strategy, with high-quality consumer leaders as the bottom position and high-elasticity sub-sectors as allocation; (3) Closely monitor and , and adjust positions in a timely manner.

[1] Jinling API Data
[2] People’s Daily - “First Day of New Year’s Day Holiday: Cross-regional Personnel Flow Expected to Exceed 200 Million Person-times” (2026-01-02)
[3] 21st Century Business Herald - “Footprints Cover 698 Cities Worldwide, 2026 New Year’s Day Tourism Starts Strongly” (2026-01-02)
[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Where is the Wind Blowing for Consumption in 2026? Institutions Discuss Valuation Repair and Three Long-term Tracks” (2025-12-31)
[5] Xinhua Finance - “2026 Outlook for the Consumption Sector: Intensive Policy Introduction Promotes High-quality Industry Development” (2025-12-31)
[6] China Securities Journal - “Brokerages’ January Gold Stocks Released, Technology and Cycle Recovery Are Focused” (2026-01-02)

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: The above analysis is based on public data and research reports and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market has risks, and investment needs to be cautious. It is recommended to make decisions under the guidance of professional investment advisors based on your own risk tolerance.