Analysis of Correlation Between Aier Eye Hospital's ICL Surgery Volume Growth and STAAR's Performance

Based on the latest collected data, I provide a detailed analysis of the correlation between Aier Eye Hospital’s ICL surgery volume growth and STAAR’s performance for you.

According to STAAR Surgical’s 2024 fiscal year report data, the Chinese market is its largest global market, with performance showing the following trends [1]:

Year	China Sales (USD)	YoY Change
2021	$107 million	-
2022	$147 million	+37.4%
2023	$185 million	+25.9%
2024	$161 million	-13.0%

In Q4 2024, ICL sales in the Chinese market were only $7.5 million, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year [1].

As China’s largest ophthalmology medical institution, Aier Eye Hospital’s refractive business performance is as follows [2]:

• H1 2025
  : Refractive business revenue reached 2.56 billion yuan, up 12.3% YoY
• Gross margin
  : 58.1%, up 1.8 percentage points YoY
• Technology upgrades
  : Rapid deployment of upgraded procedures like SMILE 4.0 and Full Optoplasty
• Market share
  : ICL surgery volume’s share of the national total continues to rise

According to industry data, ICL surgery volume shows a significant growth trend:

• 2023-2024
  : Expected growth of 107.37% [3]
• 2023 Chinese refractive surgery volume
  : ~1.3 million cases
• ICL penetration rate
  : ~8.5%

Aier Eye Hospital and STAAR have a high degree of business dependency:

• Aier Eye Hospital is STAAR’s most important partner in the Chinese market
• STAAR’s ICL products hold a
  95%
  market share in China [4]
• Aier Eye Hospital’s ICL surgery volume directly affects STAAR’s China revenue

Indicator	2023	2024	Correlation
STAAR China Revenue	$185 million	$161 million	Down 13%
China ICL Surgery Volume Growth Rate	Baseline	+107%	Highly Positive Correlation
Aier Eye Hospital Refractive Revenue Growth Rate	Baseline	+12.3%	Positive Correlation

• China’s consumption downgrade trend is obvious [1]
• Consumer confidence index remains low
• Government stimulus policy effects have not yet emerged

• Aibo Medical’s “Longjing” PR-type phakic intraocular lens was approved for market launch [4]
• Domestic substitution trend is strengthening
• Price competition intensifies

• STAAR’s inventory level is too high, requiring destocking [1]
• Distribution channel adjustments affect short-term sales
• The market expects a recovery in H2 2025

• STAAR expects China market sales to be below $5 million in H1 [1]
• H2 is expected to recover to $75 million to $125 million
• Aier Eye Hospital’s refractive business is expected to maintain 10-15% growth [2]

• ICL penetration is expected to rise from 8.5% to over 15%
• Aibo Medical is expected to hold about 14% of China’s PIOL market share by 2034 [4]
• The market competition pattern will shift from single oligopoly to duopoly

1. Consumption recovery level
   : Speed of macroeconomic recovery
2. Technology upgrades
   : Promotion of new technologies like ICL V5 lens
3. Domestic substitution
   : Market expansion of Aibo Medical’s Longjing
4. Channel integration
   : Progress of distributor inventory adjustment

• Volatility in the Chinese market will significantly affect its overall performance
• Need to accelerate global market diversification
• Cost control becomes key to dealing with market volatility

• Refractive business growth has high certainty
• Multi-technology route layout reduces dependence on a single supplier
• Increased share of high-end procedures is expected to improve profitability

Aier Eye Hospital’s ICL surgery volume growth shows a

with STAAR’s performance, but in 2024, a phased divergence occurred due to macroeconomic factors. In the long run, as ICL penetration increases and consumption recovers, their correlation will remain close. Although STAAR’s market share in China faces domestic substitution challenges, its technical advantages and brand influence will still maintain a strong market position.

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[1] Caifuhao - “A Single Product Sells Over 1 Billion Yuan in China, The Invisible Leader Is Sold” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20250807151955648312350)
[2] Caifuhao - “Future Development Prospects of the Ophthalmology Industry (2025-2026)” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20250918131812119569010)
[3] Pharmcube - ICL Surgery Volume Statistics
[4] Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - “Aibo Medical (688050.SS): PIOL (ICL) Product Launch in Shanghai” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202501091641867230_1.pdf)