Cetera CIO Gene Goldman Discusses 2026 Market Themes and Persistent Year-End Weakness

This analysis is based on the YouTube video published on January 2, 2026 [1], where Cetera CIO Gene Goldman discusses 2026 market themes. Key findings include Goldman’s expectation that the U.S. economy will be stronger than anticipated in 2026, while the market weakness observed in late 2025 will likely persist [1].

Market data from December 2025 shows that major U.S. indices experienced late-month weakness despite small positive overall returns for the month [0]. Specifically, the S&P 500 peaked at 6945.77 in mid-December and ended the year at 6845.49, representing a 1.44% decline from its peak [0]. The NASDAQ Composite similarly declined 1.95% from its peak of 23704.08 to 23241.99 year-end [0], while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.68% from 48886.86 to 48063.28 [0].

Goldman’s positive economic outlook aligns with some existing forecasts. For example, Bank of America projects 2.4% U.S. GDP growth in 2026, above consensus estimates [0]. Factors cited for this stronger growth include the One Big Beautiful Bill Act boost, restored Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefits, trade policy adjustments, fiscal stimulus, and lagged effects of Federal Reserve rate cuts [0].

Goldman’s outlook presents a notable contrast: stronger-than-expected economic growth alongside persistent market weakness. This suggests that factors beyond traditional economic fundamentals may drive market sentiment in 2026. Market sentiment indicators point to potential continued volatility, with factors like shifts in AI sector sentiment, geopolitical uncertainty, and policy risks identified as contributing factors [0].

The persistence of late 2025 market weakness, combined with identified volatility drivers, could create short-term downside risks [0]. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential policy shifts may amplify market fluctuations [0].

A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy could provide a supportive backdrop for corporate earnings and long-term market fundamentals [0]. The lagged effects of Fed rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures may create opportunities in interest-rate-sensitive sectors [0].

Cetera CIO Gene Goldman expects the U.S. economy to outperform expectations in 2026 while late-2025 market weakness persists [1]. December 2025 market data shows peak-to-trough declines in major indices, and economic forecasts from Bank of America support the view of above-consensus growth [0]. Market sentiment indicates potential for continued volatility due to multiple factors [0].