Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Valuation and Competitiveness Analysis of Zou Laichang's Global Expansion Strategy for Gold, Copper, and Lithium

Zou Laichang succeeded Chen Jinghe as chairman of Zijin Mining in 2025 and clearly stated in his New Year address that the company will

, , , and [1][2]. This strategy was proposed against the backdrop of a favorable mining cycle: the company ranks 14th in A-share market capitalization and is among the top three global listed metal miners alongside BHP and Rio Tinto[1][2].

: As of January 2, 2026, Zijin Mining’s A-share closed at 34.47 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 3.14% and a 52-week increase of 127.08%, with a market capitalization of approximately 914.6 billion yuan; its Hong Kong share closed at 36.94 Hong Kong dollars[0]. Technical indicators show the stock price is in an , with short-term resistance at 35.36 and support at 32.51[0].

Zijin Mining’s resource reserves are in the first梯队 globally:

• Copper
  : Reserves exceed
  110 million tons
  , ranking 2nd globally
• Gold
  : Reserves are approximately
  3,973 tons
  , ranking 5th globally
• Lithium (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent, LCE)
  : Reserves are approximately
  17.88 million tons
  , in the global first梯队
• Over
  50%
  of resources are obtained through independent exploration, significantly reducing resource acquisition costs[1][2]

The company has set ambitious 2028 production targets:

• Mineral Gold
  : 100-110 tons (a 22% increase from the 2025 estimated 90 tons)
• Mineral Copper
  : 150-160 tons (a 60% increase from the 2025 estimated 100 tons)
• Lithium Carbonate Equivalent
  : 25-30 tons (a 150% increase from the 2025 estimated 12 tons)[1][2]

:

• Ghana Akyem Gold Mine
  : Invested
  1 billion USD
  to acquire Newmont’s stake, with production reaching 3.2 tons within 5 months after completion
• Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine
  : Invested
  1.2 billion USD
  in mergers and acquisitions, already contributing to production and profits
• Zangge Mining
  : Acquired control to expand lithium carbonate resources[1][2]

These mergers and acquisitions, together with

and , form the “three carriages” driving the company’s explosive capacity growth[1][2].

• ROE
  : 30.60%, significantly higher than the industry average, reflecting strong shareholder return capacity
• Net Profit Margin
  : 13.91%
• Gross Margin
  : 20.11%
• Free Cash Flow
  : 240.6 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for mergers and acquisitions and capital expenditures
• 2025 Net Profit Forecast
  : Over 51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 59%[0][1][2]

The DCF model shows intrinsic value under three scenarios:

• Conservative Scenario
  : 32.27 yuan/share (6.4% below current price)
• Base Scenario
  : 38.24 yuan/share (10.9% above current price)
• Optimistic Scenario
  : 73.43 yuan/share (113.0% above current price)
• Probability-Weighted Valuation
  : 47.98 yuan/share (39.2% above current price)[0]

:

• Cost of Equity: 13.2% (Beta 1.25, Risk-Free Rate 4.5%, Market Risk Premium 7.0%)
• Cost of Debt: 3.6%
• WACC: 12.0%[0]

Zou Laichang’s team continues the “precision mergers and acquisitions + low-cost independent exploration” dual-drive model from Chen Jinghe’s era. The two gold mine mergers and acquisitions in 2025 totaled 2.2 billion USD, and the projects quickly contributed to production and profits after mergers and acquisitions, proving the company’s excellent merger and acquisition integration capabilities. This capability will continue:

• Extend reserve guarantee period
  and reduce resource depletion risks
• Increase production scale
  and dilute unit operating costs
• Expand business footprint
  and diversify regional risks

: Merger and acquisition capabilities are directly reflected in the and assumptions in the DCF model. The 15.4% revenue growth rate and 14.6% EBITDA margin in the base scenario are both higher than the industry average, supporting the valuation center[0].

The lithium sector is a highlight in Zou Laichang’s strategy:

• Argentina 3Q Salt Lake
  : Adopts advanced adsorption lithium extraction technology, with high resource recovery efficiency and low operating costs, total cost of about 40,000 yuan/ton, and cash cost of only 20,000 yuan/ton. The first-phase capacity is expected to be 6-8 tons/year, with a gross margin of up to 77.8%[2]
• Congo (DRC) Manono Lithium Mine (54.9% equity)
  : One of the world’s largest high-grade undeveloped lithium-rich LCT pegmatite deposits, with a resource volume of 6.471 million tons and a grade of 3.71%. The first phase is planned to be put into production in June 2026, with an equity production of about 29,600 tons/year and a total cost of about 50,000 yuan/ton[2]
• Tibet Lagoucuo Salt Lake (70% equity)
  : The first-phase 20,000 tons/year battery-grade lithium carbonate capacity has been completed, and the second-phase 30,000 tons is under installation and commissioning[2]

: The lithium sector’s 2028 target production of 25-30 tons will contribute to considerable profit growth and . At the same time, the global dual-core layout of lithium resources (South America Lithium Triangle + Africa) enhances supply chain resilience and reduces dependence on a single region.

Tibet and Xinjiang are key areas for the company’s domestic resource development:

• Tibet Julong Copper Mine
  : Resource volume increased from 11.16 million tons at the time of acquisition to 25.61 million tons, significantly increasing reserves[2]
• Xinjiang Savayardun Gold Mine
  : Quickly completed and put into production, reflecting the “Zijin Speed”[1][2]

Advantages of domestic investment:

• Cost advantage
  : Relatively low labor and logistics costs
• Policy support
  : In line with the national resource security guarantee strategy
• Controllable risks
  : Political risks and foreign exchange risks are lower than overseas projects

As a

and , Zou Laichang attaches importance to the driving role of technological innovation in project benefits[1][2]:

• In a low lithium price environment, the company relies on technological innovation to make
  low-grade resource development achieve good benefits
  [1][2]
• In early December, the company’s first lithium mica-type hard rock lithium extraction project was put into production. Zou Laichang said, “We are confident that through technological innovation, low-grade resource development can achieve good benefits”[1][2]

: Technological advantages are directly transformed into and , improving project economics and anti-cycle capabilities.

• Currently ranks among the top three global listed metal miners alongside BHP and Rio Tinto[1][2]
• 2028 target: Key indicators enter the top three globally, and it is expected to further consolidate its
  global mining giant
  status

The three major minerals of gold, copper, and lithium have different cycle characteristics:

• Gold
  : Safe-haven property, price is negatively correlated with economic cycle
• Copper
  : Industrial metal, price is positively correlated with global economy and new energy demand
• Lithium
  : New energy metal, benefits from the development of electric vehicles and energy storage industries

Diversified portfolio

and reduces the impact of price declines of a single mineral on performance.

1. Commodity Price Volatility
   : Gold, copper, and lithium prices are affected by macroeconomics, monetary policies, and supply-demand relationships, and price fluctuations will directly affect the company’s profit level
2. Merger and Acquisition Integration Risk
   : Overseas mergers and acquisitions face political risks, cultural differences, and management challenges, and integration effects affect project output
3. Capital Expenditure Pressure
   : Large-scale capacity expansion requires continuous capital investment, which may push up debt levels
4. Increased Industry Competition
   : Global mining giants and new energy companies have laid out lithium resources one after another, and competition has pushed up resource acquisition costs

Zou Laichang’s global expansion strategy for gold, copper, and lithium is highly consistent with Zijin Mining’s resource endowment, technical advantages, and execution capabilities:

• Valuation Upside
  : Probability-weighted DCF valuation of 47.98 yuan/share, with
  39.2% upside potential
  compared to the current price of 34.47 yuan
• Strong Profit Growth
  : Net profit is expected to exceed 51 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 59%, and ROE reaches 30.60%, reflecting strong profitability
• Outstanding Industry Competitiveness
  : Globally leading resource reserves, excellent merger and acquisition integration capabilities, and technology-driven cost advantages form solid competitive barriers

: Against the backdrop of an upward mining cycle, Zijin Mining’s strategic planning and execution capabilities are expected to promote continuous improvement of the company’s valuation and profit levels. Investors can pay attention to the progress of the company’s production target achievement, the commissioning rhythm of new projects, and the trend of commodity prices. In the long run, the company is expected to achieve the leap from “Chinese mining giant” to “global mining leader” through global layout and technological innovation.

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] 21st Century Business Review - “900 Billion Longyan Gold King, First Leadership Change in 32 Years” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260102/herald/27d9b94c36fe941d2b0fe6a883c7ef24.html)
[2] East Money - “Volume and Price Rise Together” (https://emcreative.eastmoney.com/app_fortune/article/index.html?artCode=20260101080553387939080&postId=1647363994)