Analysis of Yangtze River Delta Railway Passenger Volume During the 2026 New Year's Day Holiday and Conduction Logic for the Consumption Sector

The following analysis is based on the background information you provided, with clear data scope and gaps to avoid insufficient inference:

• Time and Caliber: 2026 New Year’s Day holiday (January 1 and January 2), Yangtze River Delta railway regional data
• January 1: 3.766 million passengers sent, up about 59.1% year-on-year
• January 2: Expected to send 2.65 million passengers, with passenger flow remaining at a high level
• Regional Positioning: The Yangtze River Delta is one of China’s economically active regions, and the above passenger volume set a new holiday single-day high

• Only regional two-day year-on-year data is available, with no 2025 full-year or historical comparable series for the same period
• No national railway caliber or other transportation mode data provided
• No revenue, passenger flow or performance verification data for relevant tourism/consumption sector listed companies (e.g., scenic spots, hotels, duty-free, catering, etc.)

Within the scope of the above information, the following is a qualitative discussion and explanation of verifiable directions to avoid over-extrapolation.

• Current data available for quantitative verification is insufficient to conduct rigorous causal or scale quantitative calculations without ‘fabricating data’
• For a more robust assessment, it is recommended to supplement:
  • Comparison of Yangtze River Delta/national railway passenger volume in 2025 full year and recent同期
  • Holiday passenger flow and ADR data of national and major scenic spots/hotels/business districts
  • Financial reports or operation bulletins of relevant listed companies (especially those with high layout in the Yangtze River Delta)
  • Seasonal data of macro indicators such as total retail sales of social consumer goods and service consumption growth rate

Within the scope of the provided data, the strong growth of railway passenger volume may reflect the following points (all need subsequent data verification):

• Improvement of short-term regional people flow and travel willingness: The large year-on-year increase indicates that the recovery of cross-regional travel has emerged in the holiday window, but longer cycles and national caliber are needed to confirm ‘trendiness’
• Clues for short-term offline consumption scenario repair: The recovery of cross-city travel usually drives the passenger flow and ADR of catering, hotels, scenic spots and urban business districts, but there is currently no corresponding enterprise or industry data to confirm elasticity and sustainability
• Potential support for sector sentiment: Warm short-term travel data can enhance market confidence in relevant sub-sectors (scenic spots, hotels, duty-free, catering, local life); however, the intensity of sentiment conduction and stock price reaction need to be verified in combination with market valuation and expectation positions

• Scenic spots and tourism destinations: The recovery of cross-city passenger flow usually benefits scenic spot passenger flow and ticketing/secondary consumption, but there is currently a lack of scenic spot passenger flow and revenue data support
• Hotels/accommodation: The increase in cross-city travel drives occupancy rate and ADR, but the differentiation between different city levels and brand structures is obvious, and it is necessary to combine regional structure and volume-price data
• Catering and local life: Passenger flow return can drive holiday dining and local service consumption; it is necessary to verify elasticity in combination with in-store passenger flow and ADR data
• Off-island duty-free and cross-border consumption: Without more data, it is difficult to directly infer the improvement of off-island duty-free or cross-border consumption from regional railway passenger volume

• Seasonal and one-time factors: The New Year’s Day holiday is easily affected by weekend adjustments, weather and short-term promotions, and longer cycle data is needed to judge whether it is sustainable
• ADR and quality: Strong passenger flow recovery does not necessarily mean ADR recovery, and it is necessary to evaluate the degree of ‘volume-price repair’ in combination with ADR, customer group structure and consumption tendency
• Regional and national differences: The Yangtze River Delta is highly representative, but there are structural differences in the national recovery rhythm (different city levels, transportation modes, business structure)

• Macro and industry data: Supplement national railway passenger volume, civil aviation/road passenger volume, sub-items of total retail sales of social consumer goods and data related to service consumption growth
• Individual stock and target verification: Obtain the latest operation bulletins or financial summaries of tourism, hotel, duty-free, catering and other listed companies highly related to the Yangtze River Delta layout, and cross-verify with passenger flow data
• Transaction data and valuation: Obtain the valuation quantile, capital flow and transaction congestion of relevant sector indexes and individual stocks to evaluate the ‘expectation gap’ and marginal driver

• The Yangtze River Delta railway passenger volume grew significantly during the 2026 New Year’s Day holiday, reflecting the short-term strong recovery of regional holiday travel and cross-city mobility [your provided background]
• Due to only providing regional and two-day data, it is not enough to directly extrapolate to national and full-year trend recovery, nor can it directly quantify the marginal pull on the tourism and consumption sectors
• From the perspective of conduction logic, the warm travel data provides short-term emotional support for relevant sub-sectors, and provides clues for further verification: it is necessary to combine longer time series, national caliber and industry and enterprise-level data for confirmation and quantitative evaluation

If you need, I can obtain based on subsequent retrieval and tools:

• The latest market and financial indicators of relevant tourism and consumption targets in A-shares/H-shares/US stocks
• Holiday consumption and travel data at the industry and macro level
• Historical comparable series and regional/national comparison charts

To build a more complete and verifiable conclusion and scenario deduction.