Samsung HBM4 Chip Competitiveness Enhancement: Analysis of Market Share and Valuation Impact

Now let’s provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the impact of Samsung HBM4’s enhanced competitiveness on AI memory market share and valuation:

According to the latest data, Samsung has shown a significant rebound in the HBM market [1,4]:

• Q2 2025
  : 15% (3rd place in the market)
• Q3 2025
  : 22% (surpassed Micron to rank 2nd)
• 2026 Forecast
  : 29% (gap with SK Hynix significantly narrowed)

Current Competitive Landscape:

[1,4]

Chart Description: The top-left chart shows the share evolution of the three major HBM market players, with Samsung quickly climbing from 18% in Q2 to a forecasted 29% in 2026; the top-right chart shows Samsung’s stock price rising by 134.83% over the past year, reflecting market recognition of its HBM4 competitiveness; the bottom-left chart shows capacity expansion plans; the bottom-right chart shows the global HBM market size is expected to reach $50 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 65%.

Samsung HBM4 has achieved key breakthroughs [1,5,9]:

• Hybrid Bonding Technology
  : Adopts copper-copper direct bonding, eliminates traditional micro-bumps, and significantly reduces stack height
• 16-Layer Stack Architecture
  : Provides higher bandwidth density compared to SK Hynix’s 12-layer solution
• Transmission Speed
  : Reaches 11.7Gbps, outperforming competitors
• Top Rating in NVIDIA SiP Testing
  : Excellent performance in core indicators such as operating speed and power efficiency

• NVIDIA team informed Samsung after SiP testing: “
  Samsung is back
  ”
• Samsung received a “
  green light
  ” for HBM4 supply, expected to formally sign the contract in Q1 2026 and start delivery in Q2 [9]
• NVIDIA’s required HBM4 supply volume in 2026 “
  far exceeds Samsung’s internal expectations
  ” [9]

• Current Capacity
  : 170,000 wafers/month
• Target by End of 2026
  : 250,000 wafers/month
• Growth Rate
  : +47% [2,5]

• 2026 HBM Shipment Volume
  : Expected to grow by
  140%
  compared to 2025 [4]
• KB Securities Forecast
  : Samsung’s total HBM shipment volume in 2026 will reach 11.1 billion Gb, a
  3x surge
  from 2025 [10]

• Expected to account for
  55%
  of Samsung’s total HBM revenue in 2026, quickly taking over HBM3E demand [10]

With enhanced HBM competitiveness, Samsung is reshaping its position in the global DRAM market [4]:

• Q3 2025
  : Samsung’s share in the overall DRAM market is only 1 percentage point behind SK Hynix (Samsung ~33%, SK Hynix 34%)
• LPDDR Advantage
  : As SK Hynix prioritizes HBM production, Samsung occupies a larger share in the mobile LPDDR market with the world’s largest memory semiconductor capacity

Based on current data calculations:

• 2025 Market Size
  : Approximately $7.5 billion
• 2026 Forecast
  : $15 billion (100% growth)
• 2028 Forecast
  : $50-100 billion (CAGR 40%+)

• Calculated by 29% market share in 2026: Approximately $4.35 billion
• Calculated by conservative 30% share in 2028 (market size $50 billion): $15 billion
• This will be a significant increment to Samsung’s current DRAM business (Q3 2025 revenue ~29 trillion KRW, ~$20 billion)

Samsung’s stock price has already reflected expectations of HBM4 breakthroughs in advance [0]:

Period	Growth Rate	Key Events
1 Month	+24.40%	HBM4 test progress reported
3 Months	+45.81%	NVIDIA SiP test success
6 Months	+108.31%	HBM competitiveness recovery
1 Year	+134.83%	Full AI storage cycle

• P/E Ratio
  : 25.76x (in a reasonable range, reflecting growth expectations)
• P/B Ratio
  : 2.17x
• ROE
  : 8.39% (room for improvement)
• Net Profit Margin
  : 10.38%

1. Increased Certainty of Revenue Growth
   • NVIDIA HBM4 order finalization: Expected to account for 60-70% of 2026 HBM revenue
   • ASIC customer demand: KB Securities predicts a surge in ASIC demand from customers like Google and Amazon [10]

2. Profit Margin Improvement
   • Gross margin of HBM is significantly higher than traditional DRAM products
   • Increased share of Samsung’s HBM business will boost overall profit margin
   • Scale effect of hybrid bonding technology will emerge in H2 2026

3. Establishment of Technical Moat
   • Leading position of 16-layer HBM4 will last at least until 2027
   • Customer stickiness from deep cooperation with NVIDIA

Compared to peer valuation (Micron’s P/E 27.10x), Samsung’s current P/E of 25.76x is relatively conservative. If Samsung successfully achieves the target of 29% HBM market share in 2026, the market may give a higher premium:

• Optimistic Scenario
  : P/E rises to 28-30x, corresponding to a further 15-20% increase in stock price
• Base Scenario
  : P/E remains at 26-27x, stock price rises in line with performance growth
• Risk Scenario
  : If there are technical issues in HBM4 mass production, P/E may fall back to 22-24x

• Hybrid Bonding Yield
  : Yield ramp-up of 16-layer stack may be slower than expected
• SK Hynix Competition
  : SK Hynix plans to mass produce 12-layer HBM4 in Q4 2026, which may seize some market share [9]

• AI Infrastructure Investment Cycle
  : If data center capital expenditure slows in H2 2026, HBM demand may fall short of expectations
• Customer Concentration
  : Over-reliance on NVIDIA (expected to account for 60%+ of HBM revenue)

• 47% capacity expansion plan requires huge capital expenditure (semiconductor capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to exceed 50 trillion KRW)
• Uncertainty in the construction and equipment debugging progress of Pyeongtaek P4 factory

• Q1
  : Formally sign NVIDIA HBM4 supply contract
• Q2
  : Start mass supply of HBM4
• Q3
  : HBM4 quickly takes over HBM3E demand (accounting for 55% of revenue)
• Q4
  : Yield of 16-layer HBM4 exceeds 80%

The enhanced competitiveness of Samsung HBM4 is not only a short-term revenue driver but also has long-term strategic significance:

1. Reshape Samsung’s Position in AI Chip Ecosystem
   : From follower to top-tier supplier alongside SK Hynix
2. Successful Technical Route Validation
   : Hybrid bonding technology lays the foundation for future HBM5 and HBM6
3. Customer Diversification
   : In addition to NVIDIA, Samsung is actively expanding to customers like Google TPU and Broadcom ASIC [2]

Based on HBM4 technical breakthroughs, rapid market share growth, and NVIDIA order confirmation, Samsung’s HBM business will become the core growth engine in the next 2-3 years. Although the current stock price has partially reflected expectations, considering:

• Feasibility of 140% growth in HBM shipment volume in 2026
• Profit margin improvement brought by 55% share of HBM4 in total HBM revenue
• Long-term market space of $50-100 billion for global HBM by 2028

. It is recommended to focus on the execution of contract signing in Q1 2026 and supply start in Q2, which will be key signals to verify the commercial success of HBM4.

---

[0] Jinling API Data - Real-time quotes, financial data and technical analysis of Samsung Electronics
[1] TrendForce - “Samsung Reportedly Plans 50% HBM Capacity Surge in 2026” (https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/12/30/news-samsung-reportedly-plans-50-hbm-capacity-surge-in-2026-spotlight-on-hbm4/)
[2] TrendForce - “Samsung HBM4 Reportedly Beats Expectations in Broadcom Test” (https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/12/03/news-samsung-hbm4-reportedly-beats-expectations-in-broadcom-test-set-to-lead-2026-google-tpu-supply/)
[3] The Chosun - “Samsung Set to Reclaim DRAM Leadership with HBM Edge” (https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2025/12/30/B6LZXS3MKFFO7D2ZCK4CEQT3HE/)
[4] Financial Content - “The Battle for AI’s Brain: SK Hynix and Samsung Clash Over Next-Gen HBM4 Dominance” (https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/tokenring-2026-1-1-the-battle-for-ais-brain-sk-hynix-and-samsung-clash-over-next-gen-hbm4-dominance)
[5] AInvest - “Samsung Advances HBM4 Chip Supply for 2026 AI Expansion” (https://www.ainvest.com/news/samsung-advances-hbm4-chip-supply-2026-ai-expansion-2601/)
[6] NAND Research - “Call Notes: Memory & NAND Market Situation (Dec 2025)” (https://nand-research.com/call-notes-memory-nand-market-situation-dec-2025/)
[7] Financial Content - “How Micron’s HBM Boom Redefined the AI Landscape in 2025” (https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-25-the-memory-wall-crumbles-how-microns-hbm-boom-redefined-the-ai-landscape-in-2025)
[8] AInvest - “Micron’s AI-Driven Momentum: 30%-80% Upside in 2026” (https://www.ainvest.com/news/micron-ai-driven-momentum-30-80-upside-2026-memory-market-booms-2512/)
[9] Yahoo Finance HK - “Memory Giants Battle for HBM4 Dominance! SK Hynix Advances Mass Production, Samsung Gets NVIDIA Green Light, Micron Joins the Fray in 2026”
[10] Sina Finance - “Market Surges as Memory Chip Giants Raise Prices”

— tags (codes, translate to display labels) —
HBM4, Samsung, AI Memory, Market Share, Valuation, Semiconductor, DRAM

— event_type (code, translate to display label) —
Social Media

— sentiment (code, translate to display label) —
Mixed