NRF Retail Monitor Shows Consumer Spending Recovery in October 2025

This analysis is based on the CNBC report [1] published on November 10, 2025, which highlighted the latest NRF Retail Monitor data showing significant consumer spending recovery in October 2025. The report, compiled by the National Retail Federation in partnership with Affinity Solutions, demonstrates both monthly and year-over-year gains in retail sales, signaling strong momentum heading into the critical holiday shopping season [2].

The retail data reveals a complex picture of consumer behavior. Total retail sales (excluding automotive dealers and gasoline stations) increased by 0.6% in October compared to September (seasonally adjusted) and rose by 5.0% compared to October 2024 (unadjusted) [3]. For the first 10 months of 2025, core retail sales were up 5.28% year-over-year, indicating sustained consumer demand despite broader economic headwinds [4].

Category performance shows significant divergence, with digital products leading the recovery at +22.39% year-over-year, followed by clothing and accessories at +7.89% year-over-year [5]. However, home-related categories continue to struggle, with furniture and home furnishings down 1.7% year-over-year and building and garden supply declining 8.52% year-over-year [4].

: NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay identified three key factors supporting consumer spending: wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and “wealth effects” from strong stock market valuations [7]. This suggests that despite macroeconomic challenges, consumer purchasing power and confidence remain robust.

: Unlike traditional survey-based data collection methods used by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor utilizes actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, eliminating the need for monthly or annual revisions [2]. This methodology provides more accurate and timely insights into consumer behavior patterns.

: The NRF has forecast that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to 2024, potentially surpassing $1 trillion in total sales [8]. This projection represents a significant milestone for the retail industry and suggests confidence in sustained consumer spending through the end of the year.

: The significant performance differences between categories suggest that consumer priorities are shifting, with digital and personal spending taking precedence over home-related investments. This may reflect ongoing caution around major home purchases despite overall spending resilience.

• Strong momentum in digital products (+22.39% YoY) and clothing (+7.89% YoY) suggests continued growth opportunities in these categories [5]
• Holiday season forecast of 3.7-4.2% growth provides positive outlook for Q4 performance [8]
• Robust consumer fundamentals (wage growth, low unemployment) support sustained spending [7]

• Continued weakness in home-related categories (furniture -1.7% YoY, building supplies -8.52% YoY) may signal ongoing consumer caution around major purchases [4]
• Mixed market signals with Consumer Cyclical sector currently down 0.197% despite positive retail data [0]
• Macroeconomic uncertainties could still impact consumer spending patterns

The NRF Retail Monitor data indicates that while the retail industry faces challenges, consumer spending resilience provides a foundation for continued growth, particularly as the industry enters its most critical season. The methodology using actual transaction data rather than surveys provides more reliable insights into consumer behavior [2]. Stakeholders should remain attentive to category-specific trends and broader economic indicators that could impact this positive trajectory. The timing of this recovery heading into the holiday season positions retailers for potentially strong Q4 performance, though the mixed performance across categories suggests a nuanced approach to inventory and marketing strategies will be essential [8].