Analysis of Zijin Mining's 2025 Earnings Preview: Copper-Lithium Dual-Drive Logic

Based on the latest data and research reports, I will provide a detailed analysis of Zijin Mining’s 2025 performance and the sustainability of its copper-lithium dual-drive logic.

---

According to the earnings pre-increase announcement released by Zijin Mining on December 31, 2025:

Indicator	2025 Estimate	2024 Actual	YoY Growth Rate
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	51-52 billion yuan	32.051 billion yuan	+59%-62%
Non-GAAP Net Profit	47.5-48.5 billion yuan	31.693 billion yuan	+50%-53%
Basic EPS	~1.92 yuan	1.21 yuan	+58.7%

Morgan Stanley pointed out that this earnings preview is in line with market expectations, and its previous forecast was 52.4 billion yuan [1].

---

In 2025, Zijin Mining’s mined copper output was approximately 1.09 million tons, a YoY increase of 1.9%, but profit contribution increased significantly due to the sharp rise in copper prices [1][2]. Goldman Sachs expects the average copper price to reach $11,400/ton in 2026, and the surge in AI computing power demand will continue to support high copper prices [3].

• Julong Copper Mine Phase II
  : Expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025 [4]
• Juno Copper Mine
  : Planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026 [4]
• 2026 Target
  : Mined copper output to increase to 1.2 million tons, a 10% increase from 2025 [1]

In 2025, lithium carbonate output was approximately 25,000 tons (including the output of Zangge Mining from May to December). The company stated that “the situation of lithium overcapacity will not improve in the short term, and we need to wait patiently for capacity consolidation” [4].

• 2026 Target
  : Lithium carbonate production capacity to reach 120,000 tons, a 380% increase from 2025 [1]
• Manono Lithium Mine
  : The northeastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo project is planned to be completed and put into operation by June 30, 2026 [4]

Mined gold output reached 90 tons, a YoY increase of 23.3% (73 tons in 2024), showing a clear trend of rising volume and price [1][2].

---

Factor	Analysis
Copper Demand Growth	AI and clean energy transition drive sustained growth in copper demand, with limited supply-side increments
Capacity Release	2026 copper and lithium capacity targets are clear, with high certainty of output growth
Resource Reserves	Prospecting and reserve increase results are significant; the Zijinshan mining area added 1.33 million tons of copper resources [4]
M&A Expansion	Completed the acquisition of Zangge Mining, adding potassium resources; acquired overseas assets such as Akim Gold Mine and RG Gold Mine [4]
Analyst Recognition	Morgan Stanley maintains an ‘Overweight’ rating with a target price of HK$46.1 [1]

Risk	Explanation
Lithium Price Pressure	The company warns that the situation of lithium overcapacity will not improve in the short term [4]
Price Volatility	Commodity prices are greatly affected by macroeconomics and geopolitics
Cost Increase	The global mining industry faces challenges such as declining ore grades and rising costs [4]
Policy Risk	Resource nationalism is on the rise, and supply chain shocks occur frequently [4]

---

Copper and gold businesses will continue to dominate profit growth, with high copper prices and capacity release providing strong support.

After the large-scale release of lithium business capacity, attention should be paid to the marginal impact of lithium price trends on the company’s profitability.

The company’s “dual-drive strategy of mineral resource exploration and M&A” is clear, resource reserves continue to increase, and medium-to-long-term growth is guaranteed.

Commodity price volatility risk, risk of capacity release falling short of expectations, exchange rate risk.

---

[1] Sina Finance - Morgan Stanley: Maintains Zijin Mining’s ‘Overweight’ Rating; 2025 Earnings Preview is Roughly in Line with Expectations (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2025-12-31/doc-inhesahv5321399.shtml)

[2] Shanghai Securities News - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Earnings Pre-increase Announcement (https://paper.cnstock.com/html/2025-12/31/content_2165332.htm)

[3] Wall Street CN - Riding the Wave of Gold and Copper Price Surges, Zijin Mining’s Profit Soars by Nearly 20 Billion Yuan (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762405)

[4] The Paper - As 2026 Approaches, What Plans Do International Mining Giants Have? (Part 2) (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32226772)