Analysis of the Impact of China-Europe Railway Express Freight Volume Growth on the Performance of Logistics Enterprises and Foreign Trade Listed Companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

According to the latest reports, on January 1, 2026, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area launched its first China-Europe Railway Express of the year. The train departed from the Guangzhou Eastern Multimodal Transport Hub (Zengcheng West Station), carrying 110 standard containers with a value of approximately 20 million yuan, exited via the Horgos Port, and is expected to arrive in Malaszewicze, Poland in 14 days [1]. This marks the further expansion and optimization of the international logistics channel of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under the Belt and Road Initiative.

As an important component of the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Europe Railway Express is a land transportation artery connecting China and Europe [2]. Compared with sea transportation, it has advantages such as shorter transportation time, higher timeliness, and less impact from weather; compared with air transportation, it has advantages of lower cost and larger cargo volume. This transportation mode is particularly suitable for high-value-added, time-sensitive goods such as electronic products, auto parts, and textile raw materials.

The stable operation of China-Europe Railway Express directly benefits railway logistics operators. These companies achieve revenue growth by participating in train operations, providing railway transportation services, container management, etc. Key benefits include:

• Transportation service revenue growth
  : Increased train frequency directly boosts transportation income
• Value-added service expansion
  : Including one-stop logistics services such as warehousing, customs declaration, and freight forwarding
• Network effect emergence
  : Improved train network attracts more cargo sources

Integrated logistics enterprises with full industrial chain service capabilities can provide end-to-end logistics services from origin to destination, benefiting from business volume growth and improved comprehensive service capabilities:

• Multimodal transport business
  : Growing demand for composite transport modes such as road-rail and sea-rail intermodal transport
• Supply chain solutions
  : Customized end-to-end logistics solutions for customers
• Cross-border service capabilities
  : Increased income from cross-border services such as customs declaration, inspection and quarantine, and insurance

• Port and warehousing enterprises
  : As cargo distribution centers for trains, port enterprises and warehousing enterprises benefit from increased cargo volume
• Freight forwarding and customs declaration enterprises
  : Increased cross-border trade drives up the volume of freight forwarding and customs declaration business
• Container operation enterprises
  : Train operations require a large number of containers, increasing demand for leasing and management services

Based on the data of the first China-Europe Railway Express in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (110 standard containers, value of approximately 20 million yuan) [1], we can estimate:

• Single train freight revenue
  :可观 revenue from a single train based on average market prices
• Annual revenue forecast
  : Relevant logistics enterprises can achieve sustained and stable revenue growth if operations are stable throughout the year
• Profit margin improvement
  : Profit margins are expected to gradually increase with accumulated operation experience and scale effects

The growth in China-Europe Railway Express freight volume has a positive impact on the following types of foreign trade enterprises:

• Transportation cost optimization
  : China-Europe Railway Express is cheaper than air transport and faster than sea transport, suitable for high-value electronic products
• Inventory turnover acceleration
  : Shorter transportation time helps enterprises reduce inventory costs and improve capital efficiency
• Market response speed improvement
  : Fast delivery capability enhances enterprise competitiveness

• Supply chain stability improvement
  : Diversified transport channels reduce the risk of supply chain disruption
• On-time delivery capability enhancement
  : Meets the strict on-time delivery requirements of the automobile industry
• Logistics cost optimization
  : Significant cost advantages over air transport

• Seasonal products launch quickly
  : Shorter transportation time helps seize sales peaks
• Inventory management optimization
  : Shorter transportation time reduces safety stock requirements
• Market expansion support
  : Convenient logistics channels support enterprises in expanding the European market

• Order undertaking capability improvement
  : Better logistics services attract more overseas orders
• Market share expansion
  : High-quality logistics services enhance competitiveness in the European market
• New customer development
  : Logistics convenience promotes the establishment of new customer relationships

• Logistics cost reduction
  : China-Europe Railway Express can save 30%-50% of transportation costs compared with air transport
• Inventory cost reduction
  : Shorter transportation time reduces inventory holding costs
• Capital efficiency improvement
  : Faster capital return speed improves cash flow

• Product pricing capability enhancement
  : High-quality logistics services support product premium
• Operational efficiency improvement
  : Supply chain optimization improves overall operational efficiency
• Risk cost reduction
  : Diversified logistics channels reduce the risk of disruption from a single logistics mode

• Business Layout
  : Leading integrated logistics service provider with a complete China-Europe Railway Express business network
• Benefits
  : Railway express business growth directly contributes to revenue and profits
• Competitive Advantages
  : Full industrial chain service capabilities and rich cross-border operation experience

• Business Layout
  : Leading container manufacturing and logistics equipment enterprise
• Benefits
  : Increased container demand from train operations
• Competitive Advantages
  : Global leading container manufacturer, benefiting from industry prosperity

• Business Layout
  : Port operation and integrated logistics services
• Benefits
  : Growing demand for cargo distribution from trains
• Competitive Advantages
  : Major port operator in South China with obvious multimodal transport advantages

• Luxshare Precision (A股:002475)
  : Leading connector and precision manufacturing enterprise with a high proportion of export business
• BYD (A股:002594 / H股:1211)
  : Fast growth in new energy vehicle and electronic product exports
• Midea Group (A股:000333)
  : Leading home appliance exporter with a high market share in Europe

• GAC Group (A股:601238 / H股:2238)
  : Leading automobile enterprise in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with great export growth potential
• Fuyao Glass (A股:600660)
  : Global supplier of automotive glass with a high proportion of European business

• Shenzhou International (H股:2313)
  : Leading sportswear manufacturer with Europe as the main market
• Anta Sports (H股:2020)
  : Leading sports goods enterprise expanding in the European market

According to relevant reports, the China-Europe Railway Express passes through multiple countries, and geopolitical changes may affect train operations. For example, the closure of Polish border ports once caused about 300 China-Europe Railway Express trains to be stranded at the Belarusian border [3], which seriously disrupted normal train operations.

• Fuel price fluctuations
  : Affect transportation costs
• Port clearance efficiency
  : Changes in port policies of various countries affect clearance timeliness
• Exchange rate fluctuations
  : Cross-border business is greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations

• Sea transport capacity recovery
  : Relief of sea transport capacity tension may divert some cargo sources
• Other logistics channels
  : Competition from alternative channels such as Central Asia Railway Express and China-Laos Railway
• Air transport cost changes
  : Decline in air transport prices may affect the flow of time-sensitive cargo sources

• Tariff policies
  : Changes in EU trade policies towards China affect trade volume
• Technical barriers
  : Increased requirements for product certification and technical standards
• Market demand fluctuations
  : European economic recovery affects import demand

• Train operation frequency
  : Monitor the operation frequency and cargo volume growth of China-Europe Railway Express in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
• Policy support intensity
  : Monitor national policy support and subsidy measures for China-Europe Railway Express
• Enterprise business progress
  : Monitor the China-Europe Railway Express business progress and order status of relevant listed companies

• Continuous advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative
  : As an important carrier of the Belt and Road Initiative, China-Europe Railway Express will benefit from national strategic support in the long term [2]
• Supply chain diversification trend
  : The strategic value of China-Europe Railway Express increases under the background of global supply chain restructuring
• Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area construction
  : The construction of the Greater Bay Area provides broad development space for logistics enterprises

• Diversified investment
  : Do not concentrate investment in a single stock; focus on overall industry opportunities
• Long-term holding
  : The development of China-Europe Railway Express business takes time; long-term holding is recommended
• Monitor financial reports
  : Closely monitor the quarterly and annual financial reports of relevant companies to track performance fulfillment

The growth in China-Europe Railway Express freight volume will have a positive and far-reaching impact on logistics enterprises and foreign trade listed companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. For logistics enterprises, the growth of railway express business will directly bring revenue and profit improvements; for foreign trade enterprises, China-Europe Railway Express provides an efficient and reliable international logistics channel, helping to reduce logistics costs, improve market response speed, and enhance international competitiveness.

As one of the most economically active regions in China, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has a complete industrial foundation and convenient geographical location. The development of China-Europe Railway Express will further enhance its status as an international logistics hub and bring new growth opportunities for logistics and foreign trade enterprises in the region.

However, investors also need to pay attention to potential risk factors such as geopolitical risks, operating cost fluctuations, and trade environment changes, and do a good job in risk management and investment portfolio allocation.

[1] Science and Technology Daily - “Departure! The First China-Europe Railway Express of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2026 is Launched” (https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2026-01/01/content_456460.html)

[2] Investopedia - “Understanding China’s One Belt One Road: Goals & Global Impact” (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/one-belt-one-road-obor.asp)

[3] Yahoo Hong Kong Finance - “Poland Closes Border, China-Europe Railway Express ‘Artery’ Stuck! 300 Trains Stranded in Belarus, Global Supply Chain May Be Disrupted…” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/波蘭鎖邊境-中歐班列-大動脈-卡住-300列車滯留白俄-060430250.html)