Assessment of Growth Quality and Sustainability Under NIO's Multi-Brand Strategy

• Growth Quality
  : High delivery growth is accompanied by signs of improved profitability (gross margin recovery, stabilization of unit-related metrics), but severe losses persist; capital expenditure and R&D investment intensity remain high, and cash flow continues to be under pressure.
• Sustainability
  : Multi-brand layout helps cover a broader price range and user groups; however, against the backdrop of high debt and negative free cash flow, growth sustainability is closely linked to capital costs, channel execution, product rhythm, and supply chain management. Current liquidity is tight, requiring continuous attention to cash burn and financing pace.

• Gross Margin and Unit Gross Profit (2024, Consolidated)
  :
  • Gross margin was approximately 9.9%, corresponding to a unit gross profit of about RMB 29,300 per unit (consolidated level, estimated based on 222,000 units delivered that year) [0].
  • Compared to 2023’s gross margin of approximately 5.5% and unit gross profit of about RMB 13,700 per unit, both gross margin and unit gross profit showed significant recovery [0].
• EBIT and Net Profit
  :
  • 2024 operating loss was approximately -RMB 21.87 billion, net loss approximately -RMB 22.66 billion; EBIT per unit and net profit per unit remained significantly negative (about -RMB 98,500 per unit and -RMB 102,100 per unit respectively) [0].
• Expense Ratio (2024)
  :
  • R&D expense ratio was approximately 19.8%, sales and management expense ratio approximately 22.0% (consolidated level) [0].
  • High R&D investment reflects the long-term nature of multi-platform/multi-brand and intelligent layout; elevated sales and management expense ratio indicates high costs for channel and market expansion.

• Free Cash Flow
  :
  • 2024 free cash flow was approximately -RMB 16.99 billion (capital expenditure about -RMB 9.14 billion, operating cash flow about -RMB 7.85 billion) [0].
  • Cumulative free cash flow from 2022 to 2024 was negative, reflecting cash burn from capacity expansion and channel expansion.
• Liquidity
  :
  • Cash at the end of 2024 was approximately RMB 19.33 billion; current ratio was about 0.99, indicating tight short-term liquidity [0].
• Leverage Level
  :
  • Debt-to-equity ratio was about 5.67x (2024), showing a significant increase in leverage [0].

• Total deliveries in 2025 reached 326,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.9%; monthly deliveries in December were 48,100 units, up 54.6% year-on-year, growing for five consecutive months
  (user-provided data). Growth momentum comes from the synergistic volume of the three brands: NIO, Ledo, and Firefly.
• Structure Assessment (Based on Public Channels and Industry Practices)
  : Different brands target different price ranges and user groups, helping to expand order breadth and model coverage and smooth single-model cycle fluctuations. However, note:
  • Complexity of channel and user operation systems increases, placing higher demands on sales and management expenses.
  • Supply chain and capacity layout, cross-brand energy replenishment, and service network reuse efficiency determine growth quality.

• Advantages
  : Coverage of high, medium, and low price ranges (e.g., high-end main brand, mid-range Ledo, entry-level Firefly) can reach more segmented markets, increase market share and brand exposure, and reduce dependence on single models. If synergized well, it can dilute fixed costs of R&D and channels.
• Risks
  :
  • Speed of channel and service network expansion and regional layout matching affect conversion and reputation.
  • Simultaneous promotion of multi-platforms and multi-brands increases R&D and supply chain complexity; improper rhythm may amplify inventory and delivery fluctuations.

• R&D Intensity
  : R&D expense ratio has fluctuated around 20% in the past three years, reflecting continuous technical investment [0]. Intelligence (ADAS/cockpit), battery swap system, and multi-platform architecture require long-term investment.
• Sales and Management Expense Ratio
  : Approximately over 20%, requiring continuous optimization of human efficiency and expense amortization through channel efficiency, digital marketing, and brand synergy [0].
• Scale Effect
  : Delivery volume爬坡 is expected to dilute fixed costs, but if price competition intensifies or subsidies are phased out, average selling price (ASP) and gross margin are vulnerable to pressure.

• High Debt and Negative Free Cash Flow
  : Combined with macro and industry uncertainties, it increases financing costs and refinancing pressure [0].
• Cash Flow Management
  : Need to closely monitor inventory turnover, accounts payable/receivable cycles, and capital expenditure rhythm to extend cash runway.

• Policy and Subsidies
  : Continuation of replacement subsidies in some regions can support demand, but phase-out or tightening will disturb delivery rhythm [1].
• Competition and Price
  : Frequent price wars and promotion cycles in the industry lead to high risk of pressure on ASP and gross margin.

• Technical Aspect
  : In 2025, the annual price range was $3.02-$8.02, closing at $5.10 at the end of the year, with large fluctuations throughout the year; technical indicators show sideways consolidation, and the trend is still unclear, reflecting market pricing and wait-and-see sentiment regarding continuous losses and cash flow constraints [0].
• K-Line Reference
  (Generated by Technical Analysis Tools): https://gilin-data.cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/financial_charts/bd51a2b5_NIO_kline.png

• Perfect brand matrix and complete product谱系; continuous R&D investment and energy replenishment/service system build user stickiness.
• If gross margin returns to double digits, unit loss continues to narrow, and delivery volume climbs steadily, it will prove “volume and quality growth”.

• Long-term negative free cash flow and limited liquidity buffer; if financing environment tightens, growth rhythm may need to be recalibrated.
• Elevated sales and management expense ratio and low channel expansion efficiency will erode profit margins.
• Price wars, subsidy phase-out, and supply chain fluctuations may amplify profit volatility.

1. Quarterly Tracking
   : Delivery and structure, gross margin and unit gross profit, operating cash flow and cash burn rate.
2. Brand Operation Indicators
   : Order composition between brands, conversion rate, channel single-store efficiency, user repurchase and reputation.
3. Capital Allocation
   : R&D and capacity expansion capital expenditure rhythm, impact of external cooperation and strategic investment on financial statements and cash flow.

• Short-Term (1-2 Years)
  : Delivery growth rate is expected to continue, but the extent of profit improvement is greatly affected by price competition and expense ratio. The key lies in multi-brand channel synergy efficiency and gross margin recovery slope.
• Medium-Term (2-4 Years)
  : If gross margin stabilizes above 10%, unit loss narrows significantly, and free cash flow improves, the scale effect of the multi-brand strategy will be more obvious, and growth sustainability will be enhanced; if high losses persist and cash runway further narrows, growth faces adjustment risks.

Data Sources:
[0] Jinling AI (Brokerage API and Financial Analysis Tool) — includes company overview, financial data, delivery volume, cash flow, technical analysis, and K-line charts.
[1] Compiled based on public market information (policy and subsidy-related, for background reference only).