Sports Driving Majority of Prediction Markets Growth, Per Piper Sandler’s Moley

This analysis is based on the interview with Patrick Moley of Piper Sandler on ‘The Exchange’ [1], where he highlighted sports as the majority driver of prediction markets growth. Supporting data from Dune + Keyrock research compiled in the Ginlix InfoFlow Database [0] shows monthly notional volume across major platforms surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion in November 2025, a 130x increase [2]. Kalshi, a leading operator, reported over $1 billion in weekly traded volume—1000% higher than 2024 levels—further reflecting strong consumer demand for sports-related prediction products [3]. Mainstream platforms like Robinhood and DraftKings capitalized on this trend in December 2025 by expanding sports-focused offerings, including Robinhood’s NFL parlay and prop bets on its prediction markets platform [4]. Piper Sandler previously identified Robinhood’s prediction markets as a significant growth opportunity, which aligns with the platform’s 220% stock surge in 2025, partially driven by this business segment [4].

1. Mainstream Adoption Catalyzed by Sports
   : The 130x volume growth in prediction markets since early 2024 is directly linked to the integration of sports-focused features, leveraging sports betting’s existing consumer base [2].
2. Platform Growth Opportunities
   : Companies like Robinhood (HOOD) and DraftKings (DKNG) are emerging as leaders in this high-growth segment by aligning their offerings with sports-related consumer demand [4].
3. Regulatory Challenges Ahead
   : The convergence of prediction markets and sports betting has attracted regulatory scrutiny, as seen in Coinbase’s state-level lawsuits over classification issues, which could shape the industry’s future [2].

• Platform Revenue Growth
  : Robinhood and DraftKings may continue to benefit from strong consumer demand for sports-related prediction products, potentially boosting revenues and investor interest [4].
• Untapped Market Potential
  : Kalshi’s 1000% weekly volume increase suggests significant growth opportunities remain in the prediction markets space [3].

• Regulatory Uncertainty
  : Authorities’ ongoing classification of prediction markets alongside sports betting could result in operational restrictions or new compliance requirements [2].
• Consumer Protection Concerns
  : The growth of sports-related prediction products raises questions about gambling-like behavior, which may lead to stricter consumer protection measures [3].

• Event Details
  : On December 31, 2025, Piper Sandler’s Patrick Moley discussed prediction markets growth on ‘The Exchange’ [1].
• Growth Metrics
  : Monthly prediction markets volume reached $13 billion in November 2025 (up from <$100M in early 2024) [2]; Kalshi’s weekly volume increased 1000% YoY [3].
• Platform Activity
  : Robinhood and DraftKings expanded sports-focused prediction market offerings in December 2025 [4].
• Stock Impact
  : Robinhood’s stock soared 220% in 2025, partially driven by its prediction markets business [4].