Analysis of Wanrun New Energy's 47 Billion Yuan Order with CATL and Its Performance Prospects

Based on the latest information collected, I will provide a detailed analysis of Wanrun New Energy’s 47 billion yuan order with CATL and its performance prospects:

Wanrun New Energy signed the “Business Cooperation Agreement” with CATL on May 19, 2025, agreeing to supply 132.31 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products to CATL from May 1, 2025 to May 1, 2030, with an order amount of up to 47 billion yuan [1][2].

• Annual average supply volume
  : About 265,000 tons/year
• Comparison with 2024
  : Wanrun New Energy’s lithium iron phosphate shipment volume in 2024 was 228,200 tons, and the annual supply volume of the order exceeded its full-year shipment volume in 2024 [1]
• Locked in for 5 years
  : This means Wanrun New Energy’s performance in the next five years has strong guarantees
• Industry status
  : This is the second-largest order in the lithium iron phosphate industry, second only to Longpan Technology’s 171.63 million tons order [2]

Since 2025, the “long-term order wave” has swept the entire lithium battery industry chain. According to statistics, the total major orders publicly disclosed by 5 representative enterprises in 2025 exceeded 321.94 million tons, with an estimated amount exceeding 112.3 billion yuan [2]. This trend reflects:

• The urgent demand of downstream battery enterprises for supply chain stability and security
• The increasing trend of deep binding between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain through long-term agreements
• CATL and Chunergy New Energy account for 89.5% of the total order scale [2]

As of Q3 2025, Wanrun New Energy has been in consecutive losses for 11 quarters, with a cumulative loss of up to 2.726 billion yuan [1].

From 2023 to Q3 2025, 5 leading lithium iron phosphate listed companies (Defang Nano, Wanrun New Energy, Anda Technology, Fengyuan Co., Ltd., Longpan Technology) accumulated losses exceeding 10.9 billion yuan [1].

In 2024, the lithium iron phosphate business accounted for 96.6% of Wanrun New Energy’s total revenue, which led to extremely weak risk resistance and profit levels that are highly susceptible to industry cycles [1].

Wanrun New Energy was listed in November 2022, which was at the peak of the lithium cycle, and encountered a deep industry adjustment immediately after listing [1].

Lithium carbonate prices showed a “W”-shaped wide fluctuation in 2025 [3][4]:

• High-cost production capacity continued to exit in the first half of the year, but supply was still relatively loose
• Mine production cuts occurred frequently in the second half of the year, disturbing market sentiment [3]
• In mid-December, the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, announced the proposed cancellation of 27 expired lithium mine mining rights, triggering concerns about supply contraction [4]

• The global energy storage market has grown explosively and become the main engine
• China’s energy storage lithium battery shipment volume in Q3 2025 was 165 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 65% [3]
• The total annual shipment volume is expected to reach 580 GWh, with a growth rate of over 75% [3]
• AI data center (AIDC) energy storage demand has become a new growth point, and the shipment volume is expected to exceed 300 GWh by 2030 [6]

In Q3 2025, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 3.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the performance loss gradually narrowed [5].

The company has actively carried out business negotiations with downstream customers and has achieved good results so far [5].

In late December, the lithium iron phosphate industry saw a wave of collective production cuts to support prices:

• Hunan Yonon: Announced maintenance on December 25, expected to reduce production by 15,000-35,000 tons [6]
• Wanrun New Energy: Started production cut maintenance for one month from December 28, expected to reduce production by 5,000-20,000 tons [6]
• Defang Nano, Anda Technology: Announced maintenance plans in the same period [6]

Five listed companies cut production in five days, which is a collective self-rescue and game under multiple pressures [6].

• Huaan Futures Research Report: The central price of lithium carbonate will move up to the range of 100,000-150,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [4]
• The industry will enter a more stable development stage with both supply and demand increasing [3]

1. Order guarantee: The 47 billion yuan long-term order locks in sales for 5 years
2. Price recovery: Lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate prices continue to rise
3. Industry production cuts: Supply-side contraction supports prices
4. Strong demand: Energy storage + AI computing power demand continues to grow

1. Price not exceeding cost line yet: Current prices are still lower than the cost line of most manufacturers [5]
2. Single product structure: 96.6% of revenue depends on lithium iron phosphate
3. High customer concentration: Extremely high dependence on CATL
4. Industry overcapacity: 400 billion yuan of large-scale expansion may bring overcapacity risks [2]

Hu Junlong, General Manager of Zeyan Consulting, said: “With the transmission of raw material price increases to the terminal, it is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will gradually rise above the break-even line in the next few months, and enterprises are expected to turn profitable.” [5]

Zhang Xiaorong, Dean of the Deep Technology Research Institute, believes: “After deep adjustment, the lithium carbonate industry is entering a new cycle. With the stabilization of industry supply and demand relations and the improvement of technical thresholds, enterprises will shift from ‘competing for output’ to ‘competing for resources, technology, and products’ in 2026.” [3]

1. Price sustainability
   : Whether lithium carbonate prices can stabilize above 100,000 yuan/ton
2. Capacity utilization rate
   : The recovery of operating rate after production cut maintenance
3. Implementation of price adjustments
   : Whether business negotiations with downstream customers can successfully transmit cost increases
4. Cost control
   : Whether production costs can be effectively controlled during the price recovery cycle

From the current trend, the worst period for Wanrun New Energy may have passed, and it is expected to turn profitable in 2026, but investors still need to pay close attention to industry supply and demand changes and the company’s actual operating conditions.

[1] Sohu - Wanrun New Energy Trapped in the Lithium Cycle: Holding CATL’s 47 Billion Yuan Order Waiting for Performance Reversal (https://m.sohu.com/a/971181965_116132)

[2] Sina Finance - Explosive Orders! Lithium Iron Phosphate Material Manufacturers Have Won Over 321.94 Million Tons of Orders in 2025! (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-19/doc-inhciykc7505717.shtml)

[3] Securities Daily Network - 2025 Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuate Widely, Industry Development Is Expected to Be More Stable Next Year (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-25/doc-inhcznyc8777884.shtml)

[4] Securities Times - 000408, The Only 10x Non-ferrous Stock! Lithium Carbonate Price Breaks 130,000 Yuan/Ton (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3560096.html)

[5] Shanghai Securities News - Lithium Battery Volatility! Multiple Stocks Hit Limit Up (https://www.xincai.com/article/nheautp2598212)

[6] Battery Hundred People Conference - Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry Game Intensifies! 5 Listed Companies Cut Production to Support Prices in 5 Days (https://www.itdcw.com/news/ycnews/1230152N52025.html)

[7] 100ppi - December 30 Lithium Carbonate (Battery Grade) Benchmark Price Is 122,066.67 Yuan/Ton (https://www.100ppi.com/news/detail-20251230-5126476.html)