Based on the latest search data and market information, I conducted a systematic analysis of Leapmotor’s 2026 million sales target and self-research strategy.
1. Feasibility Analysis of the 2026 Million Sales Target
1.1 Assessment of Target Growth Rate
Leapmotor’s expected sales in 2025 are approximately 600,000 units, and the target for 2026 is 1 million units, meaning
a sales growth of about 67% needs to be achieved within one year
[1][2]. From historical data, Leapmotor’s year-on-year growth in 2025 was about 75%, showing a strong growth momentum, but maintaining a high growth rate becomes significantly more difficult as the base expands[3].
Key Data Support:
- Q3 2025 delivery volume was 173,852 units, up 101.8% year-on-year[4]
- October 2025 monthly sales exceeded 70,000 units[4]
- Cumulative delivery volume has exceeded 1.2 million units[1]
1.2 Growth Drivers
Product Matrix Expansion:
Leapmotor has completed the product layout of the four major ABCD series and Lafa5, covering A0 to D-class models, providing pure electric and extended-range dual power options. In 2026, it will launch multiple new models such as the D series (D19 SUV, D99 MPV) and A series (A10, A05)[1][4].
Channel Network Expansion:
It is expected to exceed 1,000 stores by the end of 2025 and reach 1,500 stores by the end of 2026, extending to fourth- and fifth-tier cities[4].
Overseas Market Contribution:
Leveraging its partnership with Stellantis Group, Leapmotor’s cumulative exports in 2025 reached 60,000 units, with an overseas target of 100,000 to 150,000 units in 2026. Overseas projects will be launched in Malaysia and Europe[1][4].
1.3 Risks and Challenges
Cash Flow Pressure:
The net operating cash flow in Q3 2025 was -1.57 billion yuan, and free cash flow was -1.02 billion yuan, leading to a continuous increase in the company’s financial pressure[5].
Intensified Competition:
Giants such as BYD and Tesla continue to exert their strength, and new power brands are emerging, leading to fierce market competition[3].
Capacity Bottleneck:
A surge in overseas orders may lead to extended delivery cycles, requiring the expansion of production bases to meet demand[6].
2. Analysis of Advantages and Disadvantages of 65% Self-Developed Components
2.1 Strategic Advantages
Strong Cost Control Capability:
Leapmotor achieves the industry’s optimal vehicle cost through self-research and self-manufacturing, incorporating 65% of the vehicle cost into its independent system, forming a significant cost-performance advantage[1][7]. The company adopts a “cost pricing” logic, breaking industry premiums, and attracting consumers with a high-configuration and low-price strategy.
High Supply Chain Stability:
Leapmotor has established 17 core component factories covering cell, battery system, electric drive system, electronic control, lights, AR-HUD, air conditioning compressor, on-board power supply, electronic oil pump, thermal management, seats, resin bumper, etc.[1][7], reducing reliance on external suppliers and enhancing supply chain resilience.
Deep Technology Accumulation:
Ten years of full-domain self-research have enabled Leapmotor to master core technologies for new energy vehicles, including the automotive-grade intelligent driving chip Lingxin 01, CTC battery-chassis integration technology, clover central domain control architecture, etc.[1], forming a technological moat.
Significant Scale Effect:
The maximum generalization rate between platforms reaches 88%, realizing component reuse through high-level platformization, expanding scale while reducing per-vehicle costs[7].
Dual-Wheel Drive Mode:
Leapmotor not only supplies components for its own use but also supplies more than ten car companies externally, forming a “vehicle + Tier1” dual-wheel drive to further amortize R&D costs[1][7].
2.2 Potential Disadvantages
Huge Capital Investment:
Self-research requires continuous high R&D investment; R&D expenses in Q3 2025 reached 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%[4], putting pressure on cash flow.
Increased Management Complexity:
The operation and management of 17 component factories involve a huge system, placing extremely high demands on the company’s management capabilities.
Reduced Flexibility:
Under the vertical integration model, the company needs to bear more fixed asset and inventory risks; wrong choices in technical routes may lead to significant losses.
Limited Innovation Speed:
Compared with suppliers focusing on segmented fields, internal R&D teams may follow up more slowly in some cutting-edge technologies.
3. Comprehensive Evaluation and Strategic Recommendations
3.1 Judgment on the Aggressiveness of the Target
The target is challenging but not impossible to achieve:
The leap from 600,000 to 1 million units requires a 67% growth. Based on Leapmotor’s current growth momentum, product layout, and overseas market expansion,
the target is aggressive but achievable
. The key points are:
- Whether the overseas market can smoothly contribute 100,000 to 150,000 units
- Whether new products can continue to sell well
- Whether cash flow can support expansion needs
3.2 Evaluation of Self-Research Strategy
Leapmotor’s self-research strategy draws on the models of Toyota and BYD, achieving cost advantages through high-level vertical integration[7].
A 65% self-research ratio is a reasonable balance point
—it ensures independent control of core technologies while avoiding over-dispersion of resources.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Cash flow management needs to be more prudent
- Strengthen battery capacity construction with partners such as Gotion High-Tech
- Enhance overseas localized production capacity to cope with trade policy risks
References
[1] 澎湃新闻 - 零跑汽车发布下一个十年战略，2026年销量"剑指"100万辆 (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32284183)
[2] IT之家 - 零跑汽车立下Flag：下一个十年将实现年销量400万辆 (https://www.ithome.com/0/908/667.htm)
[3] 网通社汽车 - 销量暴涨75%，零跑汽车如何改写市场格局？ (https://www.news18a.com/news/storys_212287.html)
[4] 证券时报 - 零跑汽车第三季度再次实现盈利李腾飞：明年挑战百万销量 (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3499919.html)
[5] Concellofisterra - 零跑汽车2025年第三季度财报显示公司业绩持续低迷 (https://concellofisterra.gal/portal_cidadan/noticia/gl/784/n?s-news-10281517-2025-11-17-lingpao-qiche-2025-shu-zhou-crypt-bao-shi-que-shi)
[6] 网通社汽车 - 零跑汽车海外订单激增：产能瓶颈如何破局？ (https://www.news18a.com/news/storys_207906.html)
[7] 电子工程专辑 - 零跑下个十年目标：400万年销，底气是什么？ (https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a463333.html)
