Analysis of Tesla's Robotaxi Market Layout Strategy in China

According to the latest data, Tesla’s current market capitalization is $1.46 trillion, with a stock price of $454.43 [0]. The Chinese market contributes approximately $20.94 billion in revenue, accounting for 21.4% of total revenue, making it Tesla’s second-largest market after the United States [0].

It is worth noting that Tesla’s current valuation level is quite high, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 278.37x [0]. However, DCF scenario analysis based on brokerage API shows: conservative scenario fair value of $141.06 (69.0% lower than current), base scenario $147.19 (67.6% lower than current), optimistic scenario $188.12 (58.6% lower than current) [0]. This means the current stock price has fully or even over-priced future growth expectations, and the success or failure of the Robotaxi business will be the key to supporting the high valuation.

According to recent news search results:

• Cybercab Mass Production and Launch: Tesla’s annual review and related reports show that the company has started preparation work for Cybercab production and plans to launch mass production in 2026 [3,4].
• Recruitment and Testing: Media reports indicate that Tesla is recruiting AI operators in multiple cities including the San Francisco Bay Area to participate in Robotaxi testing/operation-related work, and it is said that about 1,655 vehicles are registered in San Francisco for this service [1].
• China Market Signals: Online searches show that Tesla China has posted job recruitment information related to autonomous driving/Robotaxi (such as low-voltage electrical engineers), but Tesla China staff responded that they “do not understand this situation” and have not confirmed it [4].

The above information indicates:

1. The Cybercab mass production schedule is still a plan/guideline for now, and subject to subsequent company announcements;
2. There is no official clear confirmation regarding the specific time and progress rhythm of Robotaxi’s landing in China;
3. Both the landing of FSD in China and the expansion of Robotaxi in China require regulatory approval, and there are still uncertainties.

According to brokerage and media report estimates:

• The size of China’s Robotaxi market is expected to exceed RMB 150 billion by 2030 (the above conclusion is from industry research reports) [9].
• Driving factors include significant reduction in operating costs, continuous policy opening-up, and maturity of high-level intelligent driving technology [9].

• China’s first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle access permits has been issued, marking the continuous improvement of the commercial regulatory framework [9].
• Multiple cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc.) have launched Robotaxi pilot operations, and enterprises can obtain road test and commercial licenses [9].

• Tesla has high brand awareness and user base in China, which is conducive to Robotaxi services gaining early user trust and willingness to use.
• If FSD obtains regulatory approval and is put into operation in China, Tesla may rely on driving data accumulated by local fleets to accelerate iteration and generalization capabilities (related technical progress and training computing power are mentioned many times in brokerage and industry materials) [9].

According to recent industry research and media searches:

• Apollo Go: In Q2 2025, the number of orders exceeded 2.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 148% [8]; it has formed a foundation for normalized operation and regional expansion in some cities.
• WeRide: In H1 2025, Robotaxi-related revenue increased by 364% year-on-year, and it has promoted fully driverless commercialization in places like Abu Dhabi and is close to per-vehicle break-even [8].
• Pony.ai: In Q2 2025, passenger fare revenue increased by more than 300% year-on-year [8].
• Others: OEMs, mobility platforms, and intelligent driving suppliers (such as Xpeng, Momenta, Qianli Technology, Didi, Hello, Caocao Mobility, etc.) are all actively laying out or announcing future plans [8].

In summary, China’s Robotaxi market is highly competitive, and local players have formed certain first-mover advantages in terms of order density, regional experience, and compliant operation.

• Data Compliance: China has put forward clear requirements for face/license plate anonymization of information collected outside the vehicle, “default non-collection” inside the vehicle, and prominent notification, etc., and the relevant compliance framework has been gradually implemented [9]. If Tesla operates Robotaxi in China, it needs to strictly comply with regulatory requirements in terms of localized data processing and outbound management.
• Access Permit: L3 access has started pilot projects, and L4 driverless operation depends on the specific policy progress of cities and regions, and the rhythm is uncertain [9].

• Local players mostly adopt the path of “regional pilot - scale expansion - model replication”, and accelerate volume through collaboration with mobility platforms, OEMs, and local resources [9].
• Tesla prefers to advance with its own fleet/owner network + software monetization (FSD optional installation and potential Robotaxi platform), and the scale path may differ in rhythm from domestic leading players.

• If Robotaxi successfully lands in China, it can contribute service revenue (such as billing by mileage/order) and potential value-added revenue (such as in-vehicle entertainment and advertising, etc.) [9].
• Under the premise of vehicle cost and operational efficiency optimization, if FSD-related business progresses smoothly, the proportion of Tesla’s service revenue in China is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing dependence on a single product cycle.

• If FSD is approved and put into large-scale operation in China, the high-quality driving data generated by local fleets is expected to accelerate algorithm iteration and scenario generalization, forming a positive feedback between technology and operation [9].
• As the fleet size and order density increase, the unit economic model (such as cost per kilometer and cost per order) is expected to continue to improve.

• Regulatory Approval Rhythm: The timing and scope of FSD’s landing in China and Robotaxi’s driverless operation permit are still key variables.
• Intensified Competition: The first-mover advantages of domestic players in order density, city replication, and compliant operation will intensify the competitive pressure on market share and costs.
• Execution Risk: The progress of Cybercab mass production and fleet expansion, supply chain, and cost control capabilities will determine the volume growth rhythm of the Robotaxi business.

• Tesla’s high valuation has highly incorporated the future value of FSD and Robotaxi. If the landing in China progresses smoothly, it will partially support the current high valuation level; conversely, if the landing rhythm is less than expected, the market may re-examine the rationality of its valuation [0].
• The difference between the three DCF scenario results (conservative/base/optimistic) and the current stock price suggests that the market pricing is significantly higher than the neutral assumption based on history and analyst forecasts [0].

• If Robotaxi forms a stable order flow and positive unit economic model in China, its service revenue can improve the stability and predictability of the company’s cash flow.
• Successful operation experience can also enhance Tesla’s valuation support under the autonomous driving and AI theme, and improve the market’s long-term expectations for software and platform-based businesses.

• Uncertainties in regulatory approval and market penetration constitute the main valuation downside risk.
• If local players continue to lead in cost and operational efficiency, Tesla’s market share growth in China may be limited, which will affect the rhythm of valuation realization.
• Changes in market valuation expectations for Robotaxi (such as adjustments to the overall industry’s profit timing) will also directly reflect on Tesla’s stock price performance.

• China is one of Tesla’s most important regional markets (accounting for about 21.4% of revenue) [0]. The success of Robotaxi’s landing in China will significantly affect the overall progress and commercialization rhythm of its global Robotaxi business.

1. Regulatory Compliance and Approval Progress: Obtaining data compliance and road operation permits is a necessary prerequisite for entering the market.
2. Technical Localization Adaptation: Algorithm optimization and verification for China’s complex urban scenarios and traffic habits.
3. Cost and Operational Efficiency: Forming competitiveness in hardware cost, fleet utilization rate, and order density.
4. Collaboration with Local Ecosystem: Under the premise of complying with regulations, seek cooperation with local platforms/city resources to improve order density and user reach.

• Around 2026 will be an important window to observe whether Robotaxi enters the volume growth period in China:
  • Cybercab mass production plan is to start in 2026 [3,4];
  • At the policy level continues to promote L3/L4 access and pilot expansion [9];
  • Local players have entered an acceleration period in terms of orders and revenue [8].

During this period, if Tesla can make breakthroughs in regulation, technology, and operation, it will help it maintain competitiveness in the global Robotaxi track and provide more solid performance support for valuation; otherwise, the market may re-evaluate the assumptions about Robotaxi and FSD in its valuation.

[0] Jinling API Data - TSLA Company Overview, Real-time Quotes, DCF Analysis, Financial Analysis, Daily Price
[1] Business Insider / AOL.com - Tesla recruiting factory workers and sales staff to operate ‘Robotaxi’ service (mentions test progress and city expansion plans)
[2] Benzinga - Elon Musk Teases Tesla Cybercab Scale-Up As Robotaxi Push Accelerates
[3] StockTwits / Markets - Tesla Starts Cybercab Production Ahead Of Launch In 2026
[4] Online Search Results - Tesla China发布了与自动驾驶/Robotaxi相关的岗位招聘信息（例如低压电气工程师），但特斯拉中国工作人员回应称“不了解此情况”，未予证实[4]
[5] Bloomberg - Famed investor Michael Burry says he’s not short Tesla shares
[6] Yahoo Finance (Hong Kong) - Tesla FSD Version 14 Actual Test and Experience Improvement
[7] 21st Century Business Herald - WeRide Abu Dhabi Commercialization Sample and Overseas Expansion
[8] Electronic Engineering Album / 36Kr - Domestic Robotaxi Leading Companies’ Performance and Competitive Landscape (Order and Revenue Growth Rates)
[9] AJ Securities/Sina Finance - 2025 Robotaxi Industry In-depth Research Report (2030 China Market Size Forecast and Policy Progress)