Analysis of Driving Factors, Sustainability, and Investment Risks of the Commercial Aerospace Sector's Surge

• In August 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Guiding Opinions on Optimizing Business Access to Promote the Development of the Satellite Communication Industry, clearly proposing the quantitative target of

  ‘over 10 million satellite communication users by 2030’
  , setting a clear timeline and roadmap for industrial development [1]

• The China National Space Administration (CNSA) established the Commercial Aerospace Department for the first time
  and set up the first
  2 billion yuan industrial special fund
  , injecting strong impetus into core technology research and ecological construction [1]

• On December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange released the

  Guidelines for Commercial Rocket Enterprises Applying the Fifth Set of Listing Standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board
  , marking the official opening of the channel for commercial rocket enterprises to enter the capital market, and the IPO process of leading private commercial rocket enterprises is expected to accelerate [3]

. From national-level strategic planning to specific listing guidelines, the policy combination has laid a solid institutional foundation for the industry to move from technical verification to large-scale commercial closed-loop.

. As China’s “top project” in commercial aerospace, the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations has shifted from concept verification to substantive orbital asset deployment [1]:

• The Phase I project of the

  “Qianfan Constellation”
  led by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite is being accelerated, with multiple batches of satellites successfully entering orbit and the on-orbit scale continuing to expand

• The GW constellation has advanced to the key technology and system testing stage, verifying cross-regional and cross-high-latitude communication capabilities, laying the foundation for subsequent large-scale deployment [1]

• In March 2025, China significantly optimized the orbital entry efficiency and cost structure of commercial satellites through launch methods such as “one rocket carrying 18 satellites” and other multi-satellite networking launches

. On December 12, 2025, the Long March 12 carrier rocket successfully launched 16 groups of low-orbit satellites for satellite internet at the Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site, setting the , marking that China’s launch site launch capability is becoming increasingly mature and is accelerating towards the high-density launch stage [2].

. According to the China Commercial Aerospace Industry Research Report, , of which 6.71 billion yuan was financed in the rocket manufacturing field and 3 billion yuan in satellite manufacturing, with funds concentrated on core technology and commercial potential projects [1].

. The sector’s annual increase has exceeded 80%, with multiple individual stocks experiencing consecutive daily limits:

• Aerospace Development gained 7 daily limits in 11 trading days
• *ST Chengchang gained 9 daily limits in 13 trading days [5]
• China Satellite Communications had 5 daily limits in 6 days, with a market value exceeding 150 billion yuan

. In 2025, China’s satellite internet applications bid farewell to “niche” and made simultaneous breakthroughs in industry empowerment and mass consumption fields [1]:

• New formats such as

  direct satellite connection for mobile phones
  and consumer-grade satellite services have emerged, allowing aerospace technology to truly enter people’s daily lives

• Galaxy Space has successfully developed and launched two satellite internet technology test satellites with direct mobile phone connection functions, and is accelerating the development of subsequent direct mobile phone connection satellites [2]

• The integration of satellite internet with 5G and IoT is accelerating, and its applications in smart agriculture, ocean monitoring, telemedicine and other fields are continuously deepened, forming a “communication-navigation-remote sensing integration” service capability [1]

. Kaiyuan Securities援引NSR data predicts that , with a compound annual growth rate of 11% in the past five years [1].

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. Currently, the scale of China’s commercial aerospace industry reaches , with an annual compound growth rate of , and the number of commercial aerospace enterprises has exceeded 600, covering the entire industrial chain [3]. In the long run, the industry is still in the early stage of rapid development with broad growth space.

. According to ITU regulations, the system needs to complete 10% of constellation deployment in the 9th year and 50% in the 12th year after project approval [3]. This means that China’s satellite internet constellation construction will enter an intensive launch stage in the next few years, and related industrial chain enterprises will continue to benefit.

. With the gradual maturity of reusable carrier rocket technology, China’s commercial aerospace is expected to achieve , and the industry may迎来 a rapid growth inflection point [2]. Kaiyuan Securities believes that with the demand for space computing power construction and the gradual maturity of reusable carrier rocket technology, the commercial aerospace industry is entering a golden development period of “capital empowerment + technological breakthrough + scale expansion” [3].

. Reusable rocket technology will enter a key verification period in 2026 [4]. If technical verification is not as expected, it may affect industry valuation and investment enthusiasm. Especially for enterprises that have not yet achieved profitability and rely on external financing, the characteristics of long technical iteration cycles and large investments will bring continuous capital pressure.

. The industry’s development is highly dependent on policy guidance. If the promotion progress of constellation networking planning, market access policies, special fund establishment, etc., is not as expected, it will directly affect the rhythm of demand release, thereby affecting the performance realization of the industrial chain [6].

. The current speculation in the commercial aerospace sector has clearly deviated from the rational track [5]:

• The sector’s annual increase has exceeded 80%, and the price-to-sales ratio of some targets is as high as 65 times, far exceeding the average of technology stocks
• Many companies have issued announcements to warn of risks, clearly stating that “
  main business does not involve commercial aerospace
  ” or “company products are not directly applied to commercial aerospace” [5]

. Although the sector funds show a net inflow on the surface, when broken down into individual stocks, the capital flow has shown obvious differentiation:

• Aerospace Electronics’ share price rose 4.62% on the day, with a turnover of 15.698 billion yuan, but the main funds had a net outflow of 2.831 billion yuan in the past five days
• China Satellite had a strong daily limit with a turnover of 12.857 billion yuan, but the main funds had a net outflow of 609 million yuan in the past five days [5]

This “price-volume divergence” phenomenon is a typical signal of main capital withdrawal.

. In the past month, , among which 6 have reduced their holdings by more than 10 million yuan [5]. As the funds that know the internal situation of listed companies best, the collective reduction of industrial capital should arouse high vigilance among investors.

: Facing greater correction pressure. The current sector speculation has seriously deviated from industrial reality, with obvious valuation bubbles, main funds quietly withdrawing, and significant correction demand exists.

: Will move towards differentiation. As the performance realization period approaches, enterprises that truly have core technology, high business proportion, and achievable performance will stand out, while “hot spot chasing” concept stocks will fall sharply.

: Industrial trend is upward, with long-term investment value. As constellation construction enters the intensive launch period, application scenarios continue to expand, and technology gradually matures, the industry will迎来 large-scale and commercial inflection points, and enterprises with real competitiveness will achieve long-term development.

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(High)

• Logic: Hot spot speculation deviates from performance fundamentals
• Current situation: The sector’s annual increase exceeds 80%, and the valuation of some targets far exceeds the performance support range
• Consequence: Once industry catalysis is not as expected or funds retreat, a
  20%-30%
  valuation correction is likely to occur [6]

(High)

• Logic: Concept speculation is seriously disconnected from performance realization
• Current situation: Executives of 29 listed companies collectively reduced their holdings, and many companies clarified that their main business does not involve commercial aerospace
• Consequence: Failure to realize performance will lead to significant valuation corrections, and investors face the risk of losses

(Medium-High)

• Logic: Uncertainty exists in technical verification
• Current situation: Reusable rocket technology will enter a key verification period in 2026
• Consequence: Failure of technical route or progress not as expected will affect enterprise competitiveness and valuation

(Medium)

• Logic: Industry development is highly dependent on policy guidance
• Current situation: There is uncertainty in the promotion progress of constellation networking planning, market access policies, etc.
• Consequence: Policy promotion not as expected will directly affect the rhythm of demand release and performance realization

:

• Suggest cautious wait-and-see
  . The current sector is obviously overheated, with main funds outflow and industrial capital reduction, facing greater correction pressure in the short term
• If you must participate, choose targets that
  truly have core business
  , not concept stocks
• Strictly control positions and do a good job of stop-loss discipline

:

• Wait for valuation regression
  . The current valuation has seriously overdrawn future growth, and it is more明智 to wait for the bubble to fade and valuation to return before布局 [5]
• Focus on core targets
  . Choose companies that meet the following four standards:

1. High business proportion
   : Commercial aerospace-related business is one of the core businesses (avoid “edge沾” layout)
2. Hard technical barriers
   : Have core patents, exclusive technology or scarce qualifications
3. Relatively low position
   : Targets in震荡区间 and not fully speculated
4. Strong industrial catalysis
   : Have clear project orders or technical breakthrough expectations [6]

• Track industrial progress for a long time
  . Pay attention to core catalytic factors such as low-orbit satellite constellation construction progress, reusable rocket technology verification, and application scenario commercialization progress

“

”. When industrial capital chooses to reduce holdings and leave, when main funds quietly flow out, and when many companies take the initiative to clarify business connections, investors should remain sober [5].

History always惊人地 similar. Looking back at the development history of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and the Internet,

, but in the end, only a few enterprises that truly master core technology and have sustainable business models can win [5].

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As a national strategic emerging industry, commercial aerospace has broad long-term development prospects, and industrial development has entered a golden development period of “capital empowerment + technological breakthrough + scale expansion” [3]. However,

, with obvious valuation bubbles and overheated speculation risks.

For investors, the core lies in grasping the

:

• Be alert to correction risks in the short term and avoid blind chasing of highs
• Focus on performance realization in the medium term and distinguish between real leaders and concept stocks
• Grasp industrial trends in the long term and layout enterprises with real competitiveness when valuations are reasonable

: At the current point, , rather than chasing highs in frenzy. For targets that truly have core technology, high business proportion, and reasonable valuation, you can layout at low prices and hold for a long time to share the industrial growth dividends [5][6].

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[1] Sina Finance - “China Commercial Aerospace Milestone Year: Accelerating Networking and Application Breakthrough”
https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-31/doc-inherfce4013825.shtml

[2] Xinhuanet - “Intensive Catalysis: Commercial Aerospace May迎来 Rapid Growth Inflection Point”
http://www.news.cn/fortune/20251222/7783592c83a74010b548b66376901843/c.html

[3] Eastmoney.com - “Commercial Aerospace Enters Golden Development Period of ‘Capital Empowerment + Technological Breakthrough + Scale Expansion’!”
https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512303605511187.html

[4] Sina Finance - “Behind SpaceX’s Trillion-Dollar Valuation: How Space Economy Reconstructs Global Capital Allocation Pattern?”
https://news.sina.cn/bignews/insight/2025-12-29/detail-inheneyq4855677.d.html

[5] Caifuhao - “Commercial Aerospace Sector Risk Warning: Retail Investors Need to Be Alert to Valuation Traps Under Overheated Speculation”
https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251228015316229857110

[6] Eastmoney.com - “Full Analysis of Trillion-Dollar Commercial Aerospace Opportunity Mining Logic”
https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251227082757359496190