Comparison Analysis of UBTECH's Humanoid Robot Commercialization Progress vs. Market Expectations

Based on the latest information I have collected, I will provide you with a detailed analysis of the comparison between UBTECH’s humanoid robot commercialization progress and market expectations.

According to UBTECH’s 2024 financial report data [1]:

• Humanoid robot deliveries
  : Only 10 units delivered throughout the year, which is in stark contrast to the market’s previous high expectations
• Financial performance
  : Annual loss of RMB 1.16 billion, cumulative loss exceeding RMB 5 billion since 2020
• Revenue structure
  : Consumer robot revenue was RMB 477 million (year-on-year increase of 88.1%), accounting for 36.5% of total revenue, becoming the largest revenue source for the first time, but with low gross profit margin

UBTECH’s recently disclosed 2025 data shows [2][3]:

• Order status
  : 2025 full-year orders have reached nearly
  RMB 1.4 billion
• Deliveries
  : Industrial humanoid robot Walker S2 delivered over
  500 units
  throughout the year
• Production capacity scale
  : Liuzhou Robot Super Smart Factory with a capacity of over 1,000 units is about to be fully put into operation
• Capacity expansion plan
  : Target capacity will reach
  10,000 units
  by 2026
• Strategic layout
  : Plans to acquire 43% equity of Fenglong Shares for RMB 1.665 billion to improve industrial chain layout

• As the “first Chinese humanoid robot stock”, the market had high expectations for UBTECH’s commercial prospects in the early days of its listing
• However, the reality of only delivering 10 units in 2024 is in sharp contrast to the overall industry enthusiasm
• Well-known investor Zhu Xiaohu publicly stated that he has withdrawn from the humanoid robot track in batches, questioning its commercial prospects [1]

• Raised UBTECH’s target price from HK$98 to
  HK$121
  [4]
• Upgraded the company’s revenue forecasts for this year and next by 2% and 13% respectively
• Based on a one-year forecast price-to-sales ratio of 21x, reflecting expectations for the humanoid robot business
• Believes the company’s commercialization process is accelerating

UBTECH faces fierce price competition [1]:

• Unitree Robotics
  : The G1 robot is sold for only RMB99,000, taking a low-price route
• UBTECH Walker Series
  : Over RMB1 million per unit
• New Product Strategy
  : Launched “Tiangong Walker” priced at RMB299,000 in 2024, attempting to penetrate the lower-end market

The pattern of China’s humanoid robot market gradually became clear in 2025 [1][5]:

• Leading Enterprises
  : Huawei, Unitree, DeepRobotics, Xiaomi, etc., have become major players
• UBTECH’s Positioning
  : Maintains technological leadership in industrial applications, faces challenges in the consumer market
• Morgan Stanley’s Expectation
  : By 2050, China’s robot market size will reach US$4.7 trillion (a 100x growth) [5]

1. Short-term (2024): Significantly Below Market Expectations
   • Only delivered 10 humanoid robots, exposing major obstacles in the commercialization process
   • Sustained losses and funding pressure raised market doubts about the business model

2. Mid-term (2025): Significantly Exceeds Market Expectations
   • Order value of nearly RMB1.4 billion and deliveries of 500 units, achieving a 50x growth
   • Rapid capacity expansion shows improved manufacturing capabilities
   • Industrial chain integration strategy (acquisition of Fenglong Shares) enhances competitiveness

3. Long-term: In Line with Industry Development Laws
   • The humanoid robot industry is generally in the early stage from technology verification to commercialization
   • Morgan Stanley predicts the industry will grow 100x, and UBTECH is expected to benefit from this
   • The characteristics of high technical thresholds and long payback periods require continuous capital investment

• Sustained funding pressure (conducted 4 rights issues in 2024, raising over HK$2 billion) [1]
• Accounts receivable risk (total of RMB1.31 billion, increasing bad debt risk) [1]
• Fierce price competition (insufficient cost performance compared to Unitree Robotics)

• Huge market size (Morgan Stanley predicts a US$4.7 trillion market) [5]
• Strong demand in industrial application scenarios (manufacturing, logistics, quality inspection, etc.) [5]
• Technological leadership advantage (Walker series maintains competitiveness in the industrial humanoid robot field)

[1] Is the humanoid robot industry in a cold winter? UBTECH loses RMB1.16 billion annually and only delivers 10 robots - Yahoo Hong Kong Finance (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/人形機器人產業陷寒冬-優必選年虧11-6億僅交付10台機器人-083553463.html)

[2] UBTECH (09880.HK) Chairman Zhou Jian voluntarily禁售 shares for 12 months - Yahoo Hong Kong Finance (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/優必選-09880-hk-主席周劍自願12個月內禁售持股-011536082.html)

[3] UBTECH (09880.HK) rises over 2% as chairman promises to禁售 shares for 12 months - Yahoo Hong Kong Finance (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/優必選-09880-hk-升逾2-主席承諾12個月内禁售持股-015336281.html)

[4] 《Dahang》 Citibank raises UBTECH (09880.HK) target price to HK$121 based on the company - Yahoo Hong Kong Finance (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/大行-花旗上調優必選-09880-hk-目標價至121元-091326723.html)

[5] Morgan Stanley: China’s humanoid robot market will grow 100x to US$4.7 trillion - Yahoo Hong Kong Finance (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/大摩-中國人形機器人市場將增100倍至4-7兆-065005697.html)