Deep Analysis Report on Douyu's Voice Social Business

Based on the latest financial data, Douyu’s voice social business shows the following key indicators [1][2]:

• Annualized ARPU for paying users:
  RMB 5,258/year
• Annualized ARPU for MAU: RMB 1,023/year
• Monthly average payment:
  RMB 438/user/month
  [0]

• Live streaming industry paying user ARPU: RMB 3,000-8,000/year
• Social platform paying user ARPU: RMB 500-2,000/year
• Douyu’s voice social ARPU is at a medium-to-high level in the industry
  [0]

1. High payment conversion rate
   : The 19.45% conversion rate is significantly higher than the industry average (about 5-10%), indicating strong user willingness to pay [0]
2. Strong growth momentum
   : Innovative business revenue increased by 21.2% year-on-year, becoming the company’s second growth curve [1]
3. Niche track advantage
   : The voice social track has relatively mild competition, and Gugu Voice has a certain first-mover advantage

1. Limited revenue scale
   : RMB 377 million accounts for only 8.8% of the company’s total revenue, which is difficult to support overall performance [0]
2. Small user base
   : The 368,600 MAU accounts for a small proportion compared to Douyu’s overall user scale (over 10 million previously)
3. High dependence on core users
   : High ARPU may mean revenue is concentrated on a small number of heavy-paying users, posing a concentration risk

• The stock price dropped
  39.48%
  cumulatively in 2025, from $11.08 to $6.76 [0]
• DCF valuation shows the company’s intrinsic value is only $0.02-$0.03, far lower than the current market price of $6.76, implying a
  99.7% downside potential
  [0]
• Revenue has continued to shrink since 2022, with only a slight year-on-year rebound in Q2 2025 [2]
• Aggressive financial attitude, with ROE of
  -6.48%
  and net profit margin of
  -4.81%
  [0]

• Current ARPU level (RMB5,258/year) is in a reasonable range
• Healthy payment conversion rate, normal operation of the business model
• 21.2% year-on-year growth indicates sufficient growth momentum

• Need to pay attention to user growth bottlenecks (MAU only 368,600)
• Be alert to the impact of top user churn on paid revenue
• Changes in regulatory policies may affect the business model
• The company’s overall decline may drag down the development of innovative businesses

• The voice social business shows positive transformation results, but it is difficult to reverse the company’s decline alone [0]
• It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of user growth and the stability of ARPU
• Given the serious overvaluation risk shown by DCF valuation, caution is needed

[1] China Business Journal - Game Live Streaming Industry Enters Stock Competition (http://www.cb.com.cn/index/show/zj/cv/cv135333061266)

[2] Tencent News - Monthly Active Users Decreased by 10 Million in a Year: Douyu’s Decline Continues (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251121A04PD500)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Douyu (DOYU) Financial Data and Stock Price Analysis