Pre-Market Analysis: November 12, 2025 - Futures Rise on Shutdown Resolution, AI Sentiment Rebounds

This analysis is based on the Reuters report on U.S. stock futures advancing on expectations of a federal shutdown end [1], supplemented by Yahoo Finance market coverage [2] and internal market data [0]. U.S. equity markets are showing positive pre-market momentum driven by two primary catalysts: the potential resolution to the record 42-day government shutdown and a recovery in AI sentiment following Advanced Micro Devices’ optimistic forecasts.

U.S. stock futures are trading higher across all major indices, suggesting a positive open following yesterday’s record Dow close [0]:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
  : +88 points (+0.18%) to 48,143 [1]
• S&P 500 futures
  : +19.25 points (+0.28%) [1]
• Nasdaq 100 futures
  : +128.5 points (+0.50%) [1]
• Russell 2000 futures
  : +8.60 points (+0.35%) [2]

Yesterday’s session saw the Dow close at a record 47,927.96 (+1.15%), while the S&P 500 gained 0.45% to 6,846.61 and the Nasdaq added 0.26% to 23,468.30 [0].

: The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote Wednesday afternoon on legislation to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1][3]. The vote is expected around 7 PM ET, with President Trump expected to sign quickly. A reopening would restore delayed economic data, including the September jobs report potentially as soon as next week [1].

: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged 5.7% in pre-market after CEO Lisa Su forecast annual data center chip revenue of $100 billion within five years, with earnings expected to more than triple [1][2]. This revived AI optimism after recent volatility, with Nvidia also gaining over 1% pre-market [2].

: Despite the positive sentiment, SoftBank Group sold its stake in Nvidia, while AI cloud services provider CoreWeave cut forecasts, raising concerns about AI valuations [1]. However, the market appears to be looking past these concerns following AMD’s bullish outlook.

: Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at December’s Fed meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool [1]. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak today, including New York President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller [1].

Pre-market sector analysis reveals significant divergence [0]:

• Leading sectors
  : Healthcare (+1.55%), Communication Services (+1.27%), Consumer Cyclical (+0.67%)
• Lagging sectors
  : Utilities (-1.56%), Real Estate (-0.52%), Financial Services (-0.29%)

This rotation suggests investors are favoring growth-oriented sectors while defensive utilities underperform, indicating risk-on sentiment despite ongoing uncertainty.

Pre-market trading shows mixed breadth with 570 stocks advancing versus 1,457 declining [3]. However, advancing volume (618.3M shares) exceeds declining volume (438.0M shares), suggesting institutional participation in the rally despite broader market weakness.

Key technical levels for today’s session [0]:

• S&P 500
  : Resistance at 6,855 (yesterday’s high), support at 6,800
• Dow Jones
  : Looking to extend record above 48,000 level
• Nasdaq
  : Key resistance at 23,500, support at 23,300

• Government shutdown vote uncertainty
  : The outcome of today’s vote could significantly impact market sentiment
• Delayed economic data releases
  : Even after reopening, economic data publication may experience delays
• AI valuation concerns
  : Despite recent optimism, high AI valuations remain vulnerable to negative catalysts
• Fed speaker impact
  : Today’s multiple Fed speakers could shift rate cut expectations

• AI sector recovery
  : AMD’s bullish outlook could trigger broader AI sector rally
• Economic data restoration
  : Shutdown resolution could unlock pent-up economic data releases
• Technical breakout potential
  : Dow approaching 48,000 could trigger momentum buying

• BILL Holdings
  : +11.1% after reports the payments firm is exploring a sale [1]
• AMD
  : +5.7% on bullish data center revenue forecasts [1][2]
• Tencent Music Entertainment
  : +3.4% after quarterly results [1]
• Foxconn
  : +1.8% on better-than-expected net profit and AI server shipment ramp-up [1]

• CoreWeave
  : -16.31% on forecast cut [2]
• Eledon Pharmaceuticals
  : -10% on stock offering announcement [1]
• Circle
  : -5.57% despite beating quarterly estimates [2]

• MBA Mortgage Applications
  (week ended Nov 7): 7:00 AM ET [2]
• Fed Speakers
  : Multiple officials throughout the day including Williams and Waller [1]
• Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions
  : 10:00 AM ET

• TransDigm Group (TDG)
  : Q4 2025 [2]
• GlobalFoundries (GFS)
  : Q3 2025 [2]
• On Holding (ONON)
  : Q3 2025 [2]

• Cisco Systems (CSCO)
  : Q1 2026 [2]
• Manulife Financial (MFC)
  : Q3 2025 [2]

The pre-market environment reflects cautious optimism as markets balance the potential positive impact of government shutdown resolution against ongoing AI sector volatility and Fed policy uncertainty.