SPX 20-Day SMA Focus and Precious Metals Rebound in Dec 30, 2025 Trading

This analysis is based on Kevin Green’s YouTube video (Dec 30, 2025, 8:37 AM EST) [6], which highlighted two key market dynamics: the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) technical vulnerability around its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a expected rebound in silver and gold.

Monday (Dec 29) trading aligned with Green’s observation of low-volume weakness: ^GSPC volume was 3.54B shares, well below its 5.25B daily average [0]. The 20-day SMA (as of Dec 29) was calculated at $6851.24 [0]. Early Tuesday (Dec 30) ^GSPC traded near $6905.73 [0], remaining above the critical SMA threshold and avoiding immediate “trap door” selling pressure forecast by Green. Thin holiday-week volume (US markets closed Thursday for New Year’s Day) amplifies volatility risk, potentially magnifying price moves from small order flows [1][4].

Web search results validate Green’s focus on silver and gold rebounds. Silver bounced 2.5% to $74.1 per ounce, while gold gained 0.7% to $4,361 per ounce on Dec 30 [4]. This recovery followed Monday’s steep declines (including platinum’s record one-day drop and palladium’s 16% fall) driven by overbought conditions in December [1][5].

1. Technical Thresholds Matter in Thin Trading
   : The 20-day SMA acts as a short-term sentiment gauge for ^GSPC, with its breach potentially triggering accelerated selling—exacerbated by holiday volume thinness [0][1].
2. Precious Metals Correction and Rebound Cycle
   : The Dec 30 rebound follows a rapid correction from overbought conditions, reflecting the volatility inherent in the medium-term bullish trend for metals [1][4].
3. Analyst Thesis vs. Early Market Action
   : Green’s “trap door” selling scenario was avoided in early Tuesday trading, underscoring the need for full session data to validate technical signals.

1. SPX Technical Break Risk
   : If ^GSPC breaks below the $6851.24 20-day SMA, short-term selling pressure may intensify [0].
2. Holiday Volume Volatility
   : Thin trading amplifies price swings, making markets vulnerable to outsized moves from limited order flow [2][4].
3. Precious Metals Correction Risk
   : Despite the rebound, recent overbought conditions raise the possibility of further corrective moves [1].

1. Metals Rebound Momentum
   : The Dec 30 recovery suggests potential for a resumption of the medium-term bullish trend if momentum is sustained [1][4].
2. SPX SMA Support Validation
   : Maintaining above the 20-day SMA could reinforce ^GSPC’s bullish trajectory entering the new year.

• ^GSPC closed Dec 29 at $6905.73, with 3.54B shares traded (below 5.25B avg) and 20-day SMA at $6851.24 [0].
• Silver and gold rebounded 2.5% ($74.1/oz) and 0.7% ($4361/oz) on Dec 30 after Monday’s declines [4].
• Kevin Green’s “trap door” selling thesis for ^GSPC relies on a break below the 20-day SMA, which was avoided in early Dec 30 trading [6].
• Thin holiday volume increases volatility risk for both equity and precious metals markets [1][4].

This report provides market context and analysis for decision-making support, not investment advice.