Week Ahead Market Preview: November 10, 2025 - Government Shutdown Creates Data Uncertainty

This week’s market outlook is dominated by unprecedented uncertainty stemming from the longest U.S. government shutdown in American history, which has created a critical data vacuum for Federal Reserve policymakers [5]. The shutdown has halted the collection and publication of key economic reports, including the crucial October Consumer Price Index and employment data that were scheduled for release this week [5][6]. This “data fog” presents significant challenges for the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting, as policymakers will lack updated inflation and employment metrics to inform their rate decisions [5].

U.S. markets ended a volatile week lower, with the S&P 500 declining 1.6% as weak jobs data and high valuations triggered a reassessment of bullish sentiment [2]. Current market positioning reflects this uncertainty, with defensive sectors leading gains: Utilities (+4.68%), Financial Services (+2.26%), and Energy (+1.81%), while Technology (+0.03%) significantly lags [0]. This rotation into value, yield, and defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities indicates investor caution amid the shutdown-induced uncertainty [2].

The U.S. Dollar Index rally is showing fatigue after three consecutive weeks of appreciation, retreating after briefly breaching the 100 level [1]. Asian markets showed mixed performance, with China’s Hang Seng Index advancing 1.3% weekly and establishing support near 25,500 levels [1]. This global context provides important backdrop as markets navigate the domestic uncertainty.

The absence of official government data is forcing markets to rely heavily on private-sector indicators and alternative inflation measures [5]. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) has already issued guidance addressing potential delays in CPI-U publication and its effects on inflation-linked derivatives [6]. This data scarcity prolongs debate about whether another rate cut is needed at the December FOMC meeting, potentially increasing market volatility as participants attempt to interpret limited information [5].

With limited official data, Federal Reserve speakers’ comments will carry extraordinary weight this week [5]. Following the October rate reduction, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a December cut wasn’t assured, while New York Fed President John Williams described the next rate decision as “really a balancing act,” noting that while “inflation is high, and it’s not showing signs of coming down right now,” the U.S. economy “is showing some resilience” [5]. Scheduled speakers this week include Williams, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran, and Alberto Musalem, with markets watching intently for policy clues [5].

The pronounced shift into defensive sectors suggests institutional investors are positioning for prolonged uncertainty [0][2]. Utilities leading with +4.68% gains indicates a classic defensive rotation pattern, while Technology’s minimal gains (+0.03%) reflect reduced risk appetite in high-beta stocks [0]. This sector performance pattern typically emerges during periods of economic uncertainty and policy ambiguity.

The final phase of earnings season continues to provide company-specific catalysts, with monday.com beating both top-line and bottom-line estimates (+4.73%) and Tower Semiconductor reporting GAAP EPS of $0.47, beating by $0.02 [1]. However, notable losers like Ubiquiti (-19.40%) and Primo Brands (-18.31%) demonstrate that company-specific fundamentals remain crucial drivers despite macro uncertainty [1].

• Extended Shutdown Impact:
  Prolonged government closure could further delay critical economic data, potentially extending market volatility and complicating Fed decision-making [5][6]
• Fed Policy Surprise:
  Without official data, the Federal Reserve may become more unpredictable in its December policy decision, potentially catching markets off-guard [5]
• Technical Resistance Levels:
  The S&P 500 faces resistance around 6,750, with support near 6,650, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [0]
• Geopolitical Event Risks:
  Major global events including COP30 (Nov 10-20), Chile presidential elections (Nov 16), and G20 Leaders Summit (Nov 22-23) could introduce additional policy uncertainties [3]

• Defensive Sector Strength:
  Utilities and Financial Services continue to show relative strength, potentially offering stability during uncertainty [0]
• Data Interpretation Advantage:
  Firms with access to alternative data sources and private-sector indicators may gain informational advantages [5]
• Shutdown Resolution Catalyst:
  Any progress toward ending the government shutdown could trigger significant market rallies as uncertainty clears [5]
• Global Growth Diversification:
  Chinese and European economic data this week could provide important context for global economic momentum, potentially offering investment opportunities outside U.S. markets [4]

No major U.S. economic data is scheduled for Monday [4]. Trading volumes may be affected by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown and its impact on data availability.

New Zealand inflation expectations (Q3), UK labor market data, U.S. and Canada holidays (lower volumes expected) [4]

German HICP final estimate [4]

Australian employment data, UK GDP preliminary estimate (Q3), U.S. CPI data (potentially delayed due to shutdown) [4][5]

China industrial production and retail sales, Eurozone GDP preliminary estimate (Q3), U.S. PPI, retail sales, and Michigan consumer sentiment [4]

Japan GDP preliminary estimate (Q3), Chile presidential elections [3][4]

• S&P 500:
  Resistance around 6,750, support near 6,650 [0]
• Dollar Index:
  Showing fatigue after three-week rally, retreating from 100 level [1]
• Asian Markets:
  Hang Seng Index establishing support near 25,500 levels [1]

1. Government shutdown resolution progress and its impact on data availability [5][6]
2. Federal Reserve communication and policy signals amid data scarcity [5]
3. Continued sector rotation between defensive and risk assets [0][2]
4. Global economic growth signals from China and European data [4]
5. Alternative data interpretation in the absence of official government statistics [5]

The market’s ability to navigate this unprecedented data vacuum will depend heavily on clear communication from Federal Reserve officials and any progress toward resolving the government shutdown. Investors should remain vigilant for policy signals and be prepared for increased volatility as markets attempt to price in uncertainty without traditional data anchors.