CATL (03750.HK) Hong Kong Hot Stock Analysis

As a global leader in the lithium battery industry, CATL (03750.HK) has recently become a hot stock in Hong Kong mainly due to stock price fluctuations triggered by changes in industry demand expectations. On December 28, 2025, Reuters reported that Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that due to the gradual cancellation of car purchase tax incentives, China’s new energy vehicle sales will drop by at least 30% in early 2026, leading to a significant decline in lithium battery demand. This news directly affected battery manufacturers including CATL [1]. As a result, CATL’s stock price fell by 2.30% on December 29 but rebounded by 1.21% on December 30, indicating short-term market sentiment divergence [0].

In terms of price and trading volume, CATL opened at $494.00, hit a high of $502.00, a low of $494.00, and closed at $500.00 on December 30. The trading volume that day was 1.17 million shares, lower than the 15-day average of 2.53 million shares, indicating relatively light trading during the rebound [0]. Regarding key price levels: $494.00 is the support level (the lowest price on December 30), and $512.00 is the resistance level (the highest price on December 29) [0].

Despite concerns over short-term stock price fluctuations, CATL’s fundamentals remain strong. The company’s return on equity (ROE) is 22.84% and net profit margin is 16.55%, reflecting solid financial performance [0]. The core of market sentiment divergence lies in the tug-of-war between short-term demand decline expectations and long-term industry leadership: some investors sold due to negative news, while others believed the news might be overreacted and the long-term growth prospects are still optimistic, thus buying on dips to drive the rebound.

: 1. If lithium battery demand drops sharply in early 2026 as predicted by the association, it will directly affect the company’s revenue and profits [1]; 2. The lithium battery industry is highly competitive, and technological progress and price competition may squeeze profit margins; 3. The current price-to-earnings ratio is 31.14 times; if industry growth is lower than expected, valuations face adjustment pressure [0].

: As a global leader in the lithium battery industry, CATL has core competitive advantages in technology, production capacity, and customer resources, and still has room for global market expansion and technological upgrading in the long term.

CATL (03750.HK) has recently experienced stock price fluctuations due to changes in industry demand expectations. There is short-term sentiment divergence, but long-term fundamental support is strong. Investors need to pay attention to the actual changes in new energy vehicle and lithium battery demand in 2026, as well as the company’s strategies to respond to industry competition and policy adjustments.