Impact Assessment of the Baijiu Industry's Transition to the 'Personal Consumption Era' on the Valuations of Leading Companies Like Luzhou Laojiao

I. Current Market and Fundamental Signals (Based on Broker API and Exchange Data)

1. Stock Price and Volatility Characteristics (Period: January 1, 2024 – December 30, 2025)

• Period Performance: Luzhou Laojiao has fallen by approximately -34.4% cumulatively, with a maximum drawdown of about 48.3%. The current closing price is below the 20-day/50-day/200-day moving averages, and the technical pattern is under pressure [0].
• Volatility: The 20-day rolling volatility has recently been at a relatively high level, reflecting market divergence and uncertainty [0].

2. Valuation and DCF Scenarios

• Current P/E is approximately 13.68x, P/B about 3.48x, ROE around 26.10%. Profitability and cash flow indicators are stable (net profit margin about 42.11%, EV/OCF around15.02x) [0].
• The three DCF scenarios (conservative/base/optimistic) correspond to reasonable values of approximately 194.82/250.06/381.79 yuan respectively, with upside potentials relative to the current price of +65.6%/+112.5%/+224.4% [0]. There is a certain margin of safety between the current price and the conservative scenario value. If the base scenario holds, the recovery space is considerable; if the conservative scenario comes true, the valuation still has a premium over the current level, reflecting that the market has already priced in some pessimistic expectations.

3. Financial Stability

• Accounting policy classification is ‘Neutral’, debt risk is ‘Low’, and financial health is good [0].

II. Structural Impact and Valuation Implications of the ‘Personal Consumption Era’ (Combined with Qualitative References from Management Communications)

1. Core Change Directions (Derived from Key Points of Management Communications, Not Established Market Data)

• Consumption scenarios are shifting from official/business to personal out-of-pocket and ‘self-pleasing’ spending, with shorter decision-making chains and demand focusing more on product and emotional value.
• Purchase patterns are changing from ‘full cases (public-funded)’ to ‘single bottles (self-funded)’, which may lengthen the shipment rhythm and channel inventory cycle.
• Convergence of the Spring Festival peak season effect: Management indicates a drop from 10–12x to about 4x, suggesting weakened seasonal fluctuations and more gradual sales momentum. Note that this is a qualitative judgment by management on the trend, not an established result for 2026.

2. Potential Adjustments to Valuation Framework (Discussive, Not Conclusion)

• Short-term (3–6 months): If sales momentum and inventory destocking in Q1 2026 are lower than expected, it may lead to downward revisions of EPS and revenue expectations, increasing valuation pressure; if sales momentum and inventory are healthy, it is expected to provide a foundation for medium-term valuation recovery.
• Medium-term (1–2 years): Whether the ‘personal consumption’ system can take over and support the price system and brand premium is the key to determining the valuation center. If the transition is successful, leading companies have brand and channel advantages, and profitability and cash flow resilience can support valuations; if progress is slow, the assumptions and valuation range of the DCF base scenario need to be re-examined.

III. Effectiveness Assessment of Youth-oriented and Digital Strategies (Qualitative Framework)

1. Youth-oriented Strategy

• Paths include low-alcohol/new category development, scenario-based marketing, and IP collaborations, aiming to expand the consumer base and repeat purchases. Its effectiveness needs to be verified through product and sales data, and no quantitative conclusions can be given for the time being.

2. Digital Transformation and Intelligent Brewing

• The intelligent brewing project (expected to be put into production in 2026) is expected to improve quality stability and production efficiency; digital marketing and channel management can enhance cost-effectiveness and inventory transparency. The short-term transmission to revenue growth is limited, but if realized in the medium-to-long term, it will help improve the profit structure and valuation quality.

IV. Risks and Opportunities (Based on Known Data and Common Sense)

• Risks: Uncertainty exists in the verification of sales momentum and inventory destocking in Q1 2026; competitive landscape and cost fluctuations may affect profit margins.
• Opportunities: Current valuation is at a relatively low level, and the DCF base scenario implies considerable recovery space; if the personal consumption system is steadily established and digital efficiency improvement is realized, leading companies are expected to obtain valuation premiums.

V. Investment Perspective (Not Investment Advice)

• Short-term: Focus on sales momentum and inventory data in Q1 2026, and prioritize evaluating the impact of the ‘critical threshold’ verification results on expectations.
• Medium-term: Track the implementation and effectiveness of youth-oriented and digital projects to verify whether they can translate into profitability and cash flow resilience.

VI. Regarding Chart Display

• The tool returned that the charts were not successfully uploaded to OSS after generation (status: ‘no_charts’), so they were not embedded in the text. The above analysis is based only on the obtained data (real-time quotes, historical prices/volatility, DCF scenarios, financial analysis, etc.) and the management communication information you provided.

If needed, I can regenerate the visualizations based on the time period you specify and ensure they are embedded after successful upload.

References
[0] Jinling API Data (real-time quotes, company overview, historical prices/volatility, three DCF scenarios, financial analysis, etc.)