Impact and Investment Evaluation of Differentiated Power Consumption Rules on New/Old Projects and Traditional Power Stocks After Document No.136

1. Core Impact of Document No.136
   • Promotes full electricity volume grid connection and market-oriented transactions for new energy; the industry shifts from policy-driven to market-driven, ending the era of “profit from installed capacity” [1]
   • Old projects (grid-connected before June 1, 2025) can enjoy protection through mechanism prices; new projects need to participate in market competition, with prices possibly dropping to “10 cents or even negative electricity prices” [1]
   • Energy storage is no longer a precondition for approval, grid connection, or grid access of new energy projects; energy storage evolves into a “market-oriented” independent asset [2]

2. Inter-provincial Differences in Electricity Prices and Consumption
   • Eastern provinces like Zhejiang
     : Good consumption conditions, mechanism prices close to upper limits (e.g., Zhejiang’s 2026 mechanism price is about 0.4153 yuan/kWh), consumption ratio up to 90%-100% [1, 2]
   • Western provinces like Gansu
     : Mechanism price is about 0.3078 yuan/kWh, mechanism electricity volume is limited, and the proportion of actually cleared mechanism electricity is significantly low (about 33% in the first batch, 17% in the second batch) [1, 2]
   • Among 31 provinces and cities nationwide, only about 6 have wind and solar mechanism prices below 0.3 yuan/kWh; compared to coal-fired benchmark prices, only Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Gansu have a drop of more than 30% [1]

3. “Consumption One-Vote Veto” Orientation
   • Boundary conditions for new project investment have deteriorated, and consumption has become a “one-vote veto” factor [1]
   • In 2025, the approval rate of PV projects by central SOEs hit a multi-year low; electricity price uncertainty plus consumption pressure make risk management a decision difficulty [1]

Dimension	Old Projects (grid-connected before June 1, 2025)	New Projects (grid-connected after June 1, 2025)
Electricity Price Mechanism	Mechanism price protection, high certainty	Full electricity volume enters market competition, significant price difference and volatility
Consumption Guarantee	High protection ratio in some provinces (e.g., Zhejiang: 90%-100%)	Consumption becomes “one-vote veto”, high volatility
Return Expectation	Stable and predictable, supported by local policies	Both risk and return rise, highly dependent on spot market and green electricity premium
Investment Preference	Low-risk, stable cash flow assets	Suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance and stronger capability system

: Old projects have “quasi-fixed income” attributes, while new projects are closer to “option-like” assets; they need to be treated differently from asset allocation and risk budget perspectives.

1. High Consumption + High Price Regions (e.g., Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanxi)
   • Factors: High mechanism price, large mechanism electricity volume, good consumption conditions
   • Investment Implications:
     • Old projects have stable cash flow, with prominent defensive allocation and long-term holding value
     • New projects can still obtain considerable premiums if they lock in medium-to-long term user-side green electricity PPAs (e.g., binding with large manufacturing users)
   • Key Risks: Spot market disturbances from coal price and demand fluctuations; adjustments to auxiliary services and green electricity policies

2. Low Consumption + Low Price Regions (e.g., Gansu, Xinjiang, Shandong)
   • Factors: Low mechanism price, limited mechanism electricity volume, high consumption pressure, high spot price volatility
   • Investment Implications:
     • Prudent entry into new projects; need to prioritize consumption, select optimal projects, and front-load transaction and operation capabilities
     • Old projects rely on stock protection but have limited incremental space, so more attention should be paid to cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and asset operation optimization
   • Key Risks: Dual risks of electricity volume and price difference; rising costs from power curtailment and peak regulation assessment

3. Cross-region Collaboration and Transaction Capability
   • Central enterprises’ “large-scale layout + inter-provincial/regional transaction” path is more advantageous: Western bases + eastern receiving channels + high-value user-side transactions can smooth inter-provincial differences [1]

1. From “Electricity Volume Entity” to “Regulation Entity”
   • Provides regulation value such as supply guarantee, peak shaving, frequency modulation; gradually shifts from single electricity energy income to multi-dimensional income of “electricity energy + capacity + auxiliary services + green certificates” [2]
   • Capacity price and auxiliary service income proportion increase; business model is more stable with “minimum wage” characteristics, attracting low-risk capital [2]

2. Valuation and Market Performance Mapping
   • 2025 Performance (A-share Sample)
     : Shenzhen Energy (+1.86%) > China Three Gorges Energy (-5.95%) > Zhejiang Energy Power (-12.04%) [0]
   • Valuation Characteristics (Sample):
     • Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SS): P/E 9.13x, P/B 0.89x, ROE 9.81% [0]
     • China Three Gorges Energy (600905.SS): P/E 22.04x, P/B 1.32x, ROE 6.03% [0]
     • Shenzhen Energy (000027.SZ): P/E 17.00x, P/B 0.96x, ROE 4.50% [0]
   • Interpretation:
     • Thermal power transformation enterprises have low valuation but good dividend yield and stability expectations, suitable for defensive and income-oriented allocation
     • New energy operators have high valuation premiums but high return and volatility, more dependent on policies and transaction capabilities

3. Allocation Logic
   • Defensive/Robust Type
     : Prioritize thermal power (capacity and auxiliary services), old green power projects in high consumption regions
   • Growth/Volatility Type
     : High-quality new green power projects + comprehensive energy platforms with strong inter-provincial transaction capabilities
   • Structural Arbitrage
     : Focus on inter-provincial price differences between spot and green electricity premiums, regional differences in auxiliary services and capacity compensation

1. Quantitative Evaluation Matrix
   • Old Projects
     : Discounted Cash Flow + Sensitivity Analysis (coal price, interest rate, utilization hours)
   • New Projects
     : Scenario-based cash flow (high/medium/low consumption), green electricity premium and auxiliary service income overlay, implied volatility and option valuation
   • Thermal Power Transformation
     : Capacity and auxiliary service proportion, carbon cost and fuel cost hedging capability, dividend and reinvestment policies

2. Qualitative Evaluation Dimensions
   • Consumption guarantee level (provincial grid/regional/inter-provincial channels)
   • Medium-to-long term user-side PPA (green electricity premium, base load curve)
   • Company transaction and operation capabilities (spot market, auxiliary services, carbon market collaboration)
   • Financial stability (asset-liability ratio, operating cash flow, dividend policy)

3. Implementation Targets and Strategies (Examples, Not Investment Advice)
   • Defensive Allocation
     : Old green power projects in high consumption regions like Zhejiang; thermal power transformation targets supported by capacity and auxiliary services
   • Growth Allocation
     : High-quality new green power projects + comprehensive energy platforms with strong inter-provincial transaction capabilities
   • Structural Opportunities
     : Inter-provincial arbitrage of spot and green electricity premiums (e.g., western + eastern); synergistic income from auxiliary service markets and energy storage

• Policy Risks: Uncertainties in subsequent details of Document No.136, capacity price, green electricity/green certificates and carbon market linkage [1, 2]
• Market Risks: Spot price differences, green electricity premium volatility, adjustments to auxiliary service and capacity compensation mechanisms
• Project Risks: Unexpected consumption, power curtailment and assessment costs for new projects
• Fuel and Carbon Cost Risks: Coal price and carbon quota tightening affect thermal power profitability, requiring enhanced hedging and cost control [1]

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• Policy and Rules: From web search (e.g., industry reports and policy interpretations) [1, 2]
• Financial and Market Performance: From Jinling AI Securities API (real-time quotes, daily line data, company overview) [0]
• Evaluation Framework: Built based on public industry information and market practices, not covering all details and latest announcements

:
[1] Solarzoom—Mechanism Price Cannot Eliminate New Energy Investment “Hidden Worries”, Central SOE PV Project Approval Rate Hits New Low (2025-12-26). Link: http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/marticle/198409
[2] Guojin Securities—Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Industry 2026 Annual Strategy: Energy Transition Overlay AI-driven (2025). Link: https://m.hibor.com.cn/wap_detail.aspx?id=4395795
[0] Jinling AI Securities API (real-time quotes, daily line data, company overview)

(Note: The above content is a systematic combing and framework evaluation, not constituting specific investment advice. Specific investment decisions should combine company announcements, latest policies and investors’ own risk tolerance.)