Long-Term Growth Logic of Copper Mining Enterprises and Competitive Advantage Analysis of China's Copper Giants

Copper mining enterprises are generally considered to have the best growth potential in the market, mainly based on the following core logic:

: As the most widely used industrial metal, copper maintains stable demand in power, construction, home appliances and other fields. China, as the world’s largest copper consumer, accounts for half of global copper consumption [1].

: According to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, clean energy-related uses accounted for about 30% of global copper demand in 2024, and this is expected to rise to 41% by 2030 [2]. Specifically:

• Electric Vehicles
  : Each pure electric vehicle uses 80-83 kg of copper, 4 times that of traditional fuel vehicles
• Wind Power
  : Onshore wind turbines require 4 tons of copper per unit; offshore wind turbines need 12-16 tons due to extended cables
• Grid Construction
  : China’s ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ grid investment exceeds 3 trillion yuan, with 8 tons of copper consumed per kilometer of UHV lines
• AI Data Centers
  : Rapid expansion further increases copper consumption per unit investment [3]

: BHP estimates that $250 billion in investment is needed to develop new copper mines over the next decade, but current committed funds are less than 30%. Global copper mine production is expected to decline by 0.12% in 2025, and production of the top 20 copper mines fell 6.5% YoY in Q3 [2].

: Major global copper mines face challenges of declining grades and resource depletion; half of the world’s top 20 copper enterprises saw YoY production declines in Q2 2025 [4].

: The annual copper concentrate treatment charges (TC/RC) agreed between Chinese smelters and Chilean miners in 2025 were only $21.25/ton, a rare low in recent years, reflecting tight raw material supply [2].

Large copper reserves are conducive to long-term growth and M&A expansion of mining enterprises. From the perspective of resource endowment, copper mining enterprises can achieve cycle-spanning growth through continuous M&A and capacity expansion, an advantage that small metals like lithium and cobalt cannot match [1].

As the ‘King of Non-Ferrous Metals’, copper has both commodity and financial attributes. The Fed’s interest rate cut cycle has begun, and abundant liquidity will further support copper price performance [4].

: Horizontal comparison of Zijin Mining and CMOC in terms of market capitalization, ROE, net profit margin, valuation, current ratio and 2025 stock price increase

: Left chart shows the stock price increase comparison of the two copper mining enterprises (2023-2025); Right chart shows the global copper market supply-demand balance forecast for 2024-2026, indicating persistent supply gaps in 2025-2026 (about 1.15 million tons and 1 million tons)

According to the latest market forecast, the global copper market deficit will reach 300,000 tons in 2025 and soar to 866,000 tons in 2026 [5]. Even in a moderate scenario where global GDP grows by only 2%, the copper market will still face a significant supply gap in the next year. The latest IEA report also emphasizes that even under high production conditions, the global copper supply gap will still reach 20% by 2035 [3].

From the price performance perspective, copper prices rose by more than 35% in 2025, and LME copper prices once突破12,000 USD/ton (historical high) [6]. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, grid and power infrastructure will drive more than 60% of copper demand growth, equivalent to adding another US demand volume to global copper demand [3].

:

• Market Capitalization: 93.078 billion HKD
• ROE: 30.60%, Net Profit Margin:13.91%
• P/E:19.30x, Valuation in Reasonable Range
• Current Ratio:1.20, Sound Financial Condition [0]

:

• 2025 Hong Kong Stock Rose 147.39%, A-Share Rose118.51%
• Cumulative Gain Over Past 5 Years Exceeded317% [0]

:

• Perfect Global Layout, Continuous Expansion of Copper Mine Capacity
• Significant Cost Advantage, Excellent Resource Endowment
• Outstanding Counter-Cyclical M&A Capability, Able to Acquire High-Quality Assets During Industry Downturns

:

• Market Capitalization:41.062 billion HKD
• ROE:26.48%, Strong Profitability
• Current Ratio:1.57, Strong Short-Term Solvency
• Neutral Financial Attitude, Low Debt Risk [0]

:

• 2025 Hong Kong Stock Rose261.48%, Even Outperforming Zijin Mining
• Cumulative Gain Over Past3 Years Reached432% [0]

:

• Multi-Product, Multi-Country and Multi-Stage Resource Layout
• Top 10 Global Copper Producers, No.1 Cobalt Producer
• 2025 Copper Output About650,000 Tons, Medium-Term Target:800,000 Tons in2028,1 Million Tons in2030 [7]

: Congo (DRC) Lonshi Copper Mine Completed Capacity Ramp-Up in2024, Sustained Production in2025, Exceeded Q4 Production Target; Total Resource:About1.89 Million Tons Copper Metal [8].

:5-Year Cumulative Gain达12.4x, the Only Non-Ferrous Metal Stock with10x Gain in the Same Period [9].

:2025 Copper Output About400,000 Tons, Medium-Term Target Similar to CMOC (800,000 Tons in2028,1 Million Tons in2030); Current Market Capitalization About100 Billion HKD [7].

1. Strong Resource Control
   : From2016 to2024, Chinese Miners’ Overseas Equity Output Grew About370%, Global Share Increased from10% to19% [2].

2. Cost Competitive Advantage
   : Chinese Enterprises Have Significant Cost Advantages in African and South American Copper Projects Through Technological Innovation and Large-Scale Operation.

3. Industrial Synergy Effect
   : China is the World’s Largest Copper Consumer, with Natural Advantage in Upstream-Downstream Integration of the Industrial Chain.

4. Strong Capital Strength
   : Large Market Capitalization of Chinese Copper Enterprises Can Support Large-Scale M&A Expansion and Capital Expenditure.

5. Policy Support
   : China Actively Supports Overseas Resource Development Through Diversified Supply and Resource Strategy; 2025 Copper Concentrate Imports from Congo (DRC) Exceeded800,000 Tons, YoY Growth35% [2].

: Gold Has Safe-Haven Attribute But Relatively Single Demand, Lacking Structural Growth Drivers Like New Energy.

: Smaller Market Size, Volatile Prices, and Facing Risks of Battery Technology Route Changes.

: Clear Production Ceiling (China’s Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity Red Line45 Million Tons), Limited Growth Space [4].

##5. Risk Factors and Future Outlook

1. Macroeconomic Volatility
   : Global Economic Slowdown May Lead to Lower-Than-Expected Industrial Demand.

2. Unexpected Resumption of Major Mines
   : If Global Major Copper Mine Supply Recovers Beyond Expectations, It May Ease Supply Tension.

3. Exchange Rate Volatility
   : Affects Profitability of Export-Oriented Copper Enterprises.

4. Geopolitical Risks
   : Some Overseas Projects Face Political Instability and Policy Change Risks.

: Copper Market Supply-Demand Gap Will Persist, Copper Prices Expected to Remain High, Chinese Copper Enterprises Have Strong Profitability.

: New Energy Transition Continues to Advance, Copper Demand Structure Continues to Optimize, Chinese Copper Enterprises’ Market Share Expected to Further Increase Through Capacity Expansion and M&A Integration.

: As Global Carbon Neutrality Progresses, Copper’s Strategic Position as a Key Green Metal Will Further Highlight. Chinese Copper Enterprises Are Expected to Grow into Global Mining Giants with Broad Market Capitalization Space.

##6. Conclusion

. Supported by Supply-Demand Fundamentals, Copper Prices Are Expected to Maintain Strength, Creating a Favorable Profit Environment for Copper Mining Enterprises.

. Zijin Mining, CMOC and Other Enterprises Have Occupied Favorable Positions in Global Mining Competition Through Resource Endowment, Cost Advantage, Capital Strength and Strategic Execution. From the Perspective of Market Capitalization Space, Zijin Mining Is Moving Towards the World’s Second-Largest Mining Giant, and Enterprises Like CMOC Also Have Huge Growth Space.

: Against the Backdrop of Expanding Supply-Demand Gap, It Is Recommended to Focus on Chinese Copper Leading Enterprises with High-Quality Resource Reserves, Strong Cost Control Capabilities and Continuous Capacity Growth. By Allocating a Basket of Copper Mining Enterprise Stocks, You Can Effectively Share the Industry Growth Dividends [5].

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[0] Jinling API Data - Stock Prices, Financial Indicators, Company Profiles

[1] Snowball - “Why Are Copper Mining Enterprises the Most Growth-Oriented?” (https://xueqiu.com/9829780332/367993730)

[2] Sina Finance - “Analysis of Bullish International Copper Prices: Supply Chain Restructuring, Technological Revolution and New Price Cycle” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-11-30/doc-infzffqx4269374.shtml)

[3] Phoenix New Media - “2025 Copper Market Year-End Review: Supply Imbalance and Structural Demand Reshape Pricing Logic” (https://i.ifeng.com/c/8pA8YiAhX3g)

[4] The Paper - “Collective Surge: Where Is the Cycle of Non-Ferrous Metals?” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32257194)

[5] Jefferies Research Report - “Suggest Allocating a Basket of Copper Mining Enterprise Stocks; CMOC and Zijin Mining Are Core Targets in the Chinese Market” (https://www.hstong.com/news/detail/25122609592738753)

[6] Reuters - “Copper Miners Follow Red Metal Price Rises” (https://m.fastbull.com/cn/news/detail/news_7300_1_2025_4_28204_3/NYSE-FCX)

[7] Snowball - Minmetals Resources Stock Discussion (https://xueqiu.com/S/01208)

[8] Snowball User Comment - Discussion on JCHX Mining’s Lonshi Copper Mine

[9] Sina Finance - “Sina Finance Hot Hourly Report | 19:00, December 26, 2025” (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/7857201856/1d45362c001901gkgm)