Zijin Mining 2026 Production Surge Plan - In-depth Assessment of Feasibility and Profit Certainty

Based on the latest market data [0] and detailed project analysis [1], I conduct a comprehensive assessment of Zijin Mining’s 2026 production surge plan.

Mineral Type	2025 Production	2026 Forecast	Growth Rate	Key Driving Projects
Copper	1.1 million tons	1.26 million tons	+14.5%	Julong Phase II (110k tons), Kamoa (20k tons), Juno (30k tons)
Gold	90 tons	110 tons	+22.2%	Haiyu Gold Mine, RG Mine, Porgera Full Production, Technical Transformation & Expansion
Lithium (LCE)	22k tons	130k tons	+490.9%	3Q Salt Lake, Lagoucuo, Hunan Xiangyuan Lithium Mine
Silver	450 tons	610 tons	+35.6%	Associated with Julong Phase II
Molybdenum	12k tons	23k tons	+91.7%	Jinzhai Molybdenum Mine Expansion, Associated with Julong

According to brokerage API data, Zijin Mining (2899.HK) delivered strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025 [0]:

• Operating Revenue
  : 254.2 billion yuan (YoY +10.33%)
• Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders
  : 37.864 billion yuan (YoY +55.45%)
• Earnings per Share
  : Reached a high level in H1

The market consensus expects full-year 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 55-56 billion yuan [1], equivalent to a steady daily profit of 140 million yuan.

Project	Status	Feasibility	Incremental Contribution	Risk Points
Julong Phase II	To be put into operation at end of 2025	95%	+110k tons copper	High-altitude construction, environmental approval
Kamoa Copper Mine	To be put into operation in Q2 2026	90%	+20k tons copper	DRC political situation, power supply
Juno Copper Mine	To be completed at end of 2026	85%	+30k tons copper	Long ramp-up period for new projects
Timok Lower Zone Mine	Under technical transformation & expansion	88%	Continuous production increase	Technical transformation risk

:<br>- Julong Phase II has completed all key certification procedures (environmental impact assessment, forest/grassland approval, tailings pond permit, etc.) [2]<br>- Construction progress meets expectations, with an investment of 17.46 billion yuan and designed daily mining & processing capacity of 200k tons<br>- The 10k tons capacity technical transformation of the参股玉龙 Copper Mine was put into operation in November 2025 [1]

Project	Status	Feasibility	Incremental Contribution	Notes
Haiyu Gold Mine	To be put into operation in June 2026	85%	+6 tons (3 tons equity)	China’s largest gold mine, first-year ramp-up
RG Gold Mine	Has been consolidated for 3 months	95%	Full-year contribution in 2026	Resource reserve:242 tons, low cost
Porgera Gold Mine	Reached full production of21 tons	90%	+2.5 tons (equity)	Zijin holds 24.5% stake
Shuiyindong/Suriname	Technical transformation & expansion completed	88%	Continuous production increase	Operational optimization

:<br>- Kazakhstan RG Gold Mine has a cash cost of only 796 USD/oz, far below the global average [1]<br>- Zijin Gold International Prospectus Guidance:2026 gold equity production to increase by31.2% to59 tons [1]

Project	Status	Feasibility	Incremental Contribution (LCE)	Cost Advantage
3Q Salt Lake	Put into operation in Q32025	95%	20k tons + Phase II40k tons	Argentina, low cost
Lagoucuo Salt Lake	Phase I put into operation	90%	20k tons + Phase II40k tons	Tibet, adsorption method + membrane separation
Hunan Xiangyuan Lithium Mine	To be put into operation at end of2025	85%	30k tons	First lithium mica integration project

:<br>- 3Q Salt Lake Phase I 20k tons was officially put into operation in September2025 [3]<br>- Lagoucuo Phase I20k tons was put into operation in H12025, Phase II40k tons planned for June2026 [3]<br>- Hunan Xiangyuan Lithium Mica Project achieved single rotary kiln ignition in October and is now officially put into operation [3]

###2.2 Project Implementation Risk Factors

Risk Category	Risk Level	Specific Performance	Response Measures
Project Schedule Risk	Medium(3/10)	Construction delay for high-altitude projects	Strong execution capability of Zijin, high historical on-time rate
Metal Price Volatility	High(7/10)	Sharp correction in copper & lithium prices	Diversified layout, obvious cost advantage
Overseas Operation Risk	Medium-High(6/10)	Policy changes, exchange rate fluctuations	Localized operation, good government-business relations
Technical Implementation Risk	Low(3/10)	Immature salt lake lithium extraction technology	In-house technical team with rich experience

###3.1 Profit Forecast Model (2026)

Based on three scenario assumptions:

Business Segment	Production	Assumed Price	Net Margin	Profit Contribution
Copper	1.26 million tons	73k yuan/ton	15%	~13.7 billion yuan
Gold	110 tons	620 yuan/g	20%	~13.6 billion yuan
Lithium	130k tons	110k yuan/ton	18%	~25.8 billion yuan
Others(Silver/Molybdenum/Lead-Zinc)	-	-	-	~15 billion yuan
Total	-	-	-	~68.1 billion yuan

:<br>- Copper Price: Goldman Sachs predicts 2026 average price of11,400 USD/ton (~78k yuan/ton), our assumption is relatively conservative [4]<br>- Gold Price: Goldman Sachs predicts to reach 4,900 USD/oz by end of2026 [4]<br>- Lithium Price: Current 110k yuan/ton, assuming average price remains at current level in2026 due to supply-demand balance

If copper price reaches 85k yuan/ton, gold price 700 yuan/g, lithium price150k yuan/ton:<br>-

, up more than56% YoY

If copper price is65k yuan/ton, gold price550 yuan/g, lithium price80k yuan/ton:<br>-

, still at a high level

###3.2 Cost Advantage Analysis

Cost control capability of Zijin Mining is the core guarantee for profit certainty:

Business Segment	Zijin Cost	Industry Average	Cost Advantage
Copper Mine C1 Cost	1.85 USD/lb	2.2 USD/lb	-15.9%
Gold Mine AISC	950 USD/oz	1,200 USD/oz	-20.8%
Lithium Salt Lake Cost	45k yuan/ton	65k yuan/ton	-30.8%

:<br>- “Ore Flow Five Rings Integration” management model to optimize the entire process [2]<br>- Vertical integration industry chain (exploration-mining-ore dressing-smelting-sales)<br>- High-grade resources (Kamoa Copper Mine grade 4.3%-6%, far higher than industry average0.5%)<br>- Scale effect & synergy effect

###3.3 2025 Performance Verification

2025 first three quarters data [0] verifies profitability:

• Q3 single-quarter net profit:17.056 billion yuan, YoY +52.25%
• Gross margin remains high: Gold ingot gross margin 54.39%, gold concentrate72.59%
• Net cash flow from operating activities:52.11 billion yuan, YoY +44%

###4.1 Copper Price: Bullish (Certainty:80%)

:<br>- : Global copper ore grade decline, fewer new mine discoveries, ESG constraints strengthened [4]<br>- : Explosive power demand from AI data centers, Morgan Stanley predicts global AI data center copper consumption to reach500k tons in2025 and1.3 million tons in2028 (CAGR40%) [2]<br>- :2026 average price 11,400 USD/ton (~78k yuan/ton) [4]<br>- : Broke through 11,665 USD/ton in December2025, up32.84% YoY [4]

: Global economic recession, U.S. tariff policy

###4.2 Gold Price: Not Bearish (Certainty:70%)

:<br>- : Structural demand remains high<br>- : Continuous rate cuts by Fed support gold price<br>- : Increased uncertainty boosts safe-haven demand<br>- : Reaches 4,900 USD/oz by end of2026 [4]<br>- : Reached 1,005.1 yuan/g in December2025, up58% YoY [2]

: U.S. economic soft landing, U.S. dollar rebound

###4.3 Lithium Price: Volatile Recovery (Certainty:60%)

:<br>- Lithium carbonate price broke through 100k yuan/ton in November2025, hitting a17-month high<br>- Daily position of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate futures exceeded 1 million lots

:<br>- Global lithium demand is expected to reach200k tons LCE in2026 [3]<br>- Energy storage demand grows beyond expectations

: Intensive capacity release, global supply increment expected to exceed300k tons in2026 vs demand increment of only~150k tons, expanding supply-demand gap [3]

###5.1 Feasibility Assessment

Dimension	Score	Description
Project Technical Feasibility	92/100	Core projects are all technical transformation/expansion or mature resource development with low technical risk
Resource Reserve Guarantee	95/100	Top global resource reserves, copper/gold/lithium resource quantities rank top10 globally
Capital Strength	90/100	Operating cash flow of52.1 billion yuan in first three quarters, strong financial strength
Management Execution	93/100	High historical on-time delivery rate of projects, industry-leading operational efficiency
Policy Compliance	85/100	Overseas projects face certain policy risks but have high localization degree
Comprehensive Feasibility	91/100	Highly Feasible

###5.2 Profit Certainty Assessment

Scenario	Probability	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	YoY Growth vs2025	Certainty Rating
Optimistic	25%	Over86 billion yuan	Over+56%	★★★☆☆
Baseline	60%	68 billion yuan	+24%	★★★★☆
Pessimistic	15%	50 billion yuan	-9%	★★☆☆☆
Weighted Average	100%	68 billion yuan	+24%	★★★★☆

###5.3 100 Billion Profit Target Analysis

Market-discussed “100 billion profit” target (more likely to be achieved in2027):

:<br>- Copper price ≥85k yuan/ton<br>- Gold price ≥650 yuan/g<br>- Lithium price ≥130k yuan/ton<br>- All projects put into operation as planned or ahead of schedule

: The probability of net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 100 billion yuan in2026 is about, but the probability of achieving it in2027 exceeds.

###6.1 Investment Logic

:<br>1. : Comprehensive production surge + high-level volatile metal prices<br>2. : Industry-leading cost control capability<br>3. : World-class resource reserves with obvious high-grade advantage<br>4. : High historical on-time delivery rate of projects, experienced management team

(December2025)[0]:<br>- Zijin Mining: Dynamic PE ~19x<br>- Southern Copper: Rolling PE32x<br>- Freeport-McMoRan: Rolling PE37x<br>- Zijin Gold International: Rolling PE38x

###6.2 Risk Tips

Risk Type	Impact Degree	Response Strategy
Sharp decline in metal prices	High	Diversified layout, cost advantage provides buffer
Project commissioning delay	Medium	Core projects progress smoothly, risks controllable
Overseas policy changes	Medium-High	Localized operation, maintain good government-business relations
Exchange rate fluctuations	Medium	Natural hedge + financial instrument hedge

###6.3 Conclusion

Zijin Mining’s2026 production surge plan is

strong profit certainty (★★★★☆). Under the baseline scenario, net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reachin2026, up about24% YoY.

: Zijin Mining has a clear logic of “volume-price rise + cost advantage”, with a clear growth path from2025 to2028, and has allocation value. It is recommended to pay attention to metal price trends, core project commissioning progress, and overseas policy environment changes.

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:<br>[0] Jinling API Data (Company Profile, Stock Price, Financial Data)<br>[1] Xueqiu Column “Will Next Year’s Profit Reach 100 Billion? Detailed Discussion on Zijin Mining’s Production Plan and Profit Calculation”(https://xueqiu.com/1641200866/367988583)<br>[2] NetEase “Earning 38 Billion Yuan, Zijin Mining’s Earth-shaking Step!”(https://www.163.com/dy/article/KHVG0JDN0539IMJ0.html)<br>[3] Sina Finance “Put into Operation in Hunan!30k Tons Lithium Carbonate +5 Million Tons Mining & Processing Project”(https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-26/doc-inhecmri2667931.shtml)<br>[4] Yahoo Finance “Goldman Sachs: Gold Price to Reach 4900 USD by End of Next Year, Expecting Lower Oil Prices, Copper Remains the Most Favorable Industrial Metal”(https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/高盛-金價明年底上看4900美元-預望油價走低-銅仍是最好工業金屬-001004340.html)<br>[5] The Paper “Breaking Through 11k USD! Is Copper’s ‘Epic’ Rally Unfinished?”(https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32144368)