Seres (601127.SH) 'Turnaround' Investment Value Analysis

Based on a comprehensive analysis of fundamentals and technicals, Seres has a solid foundation to achieve a ‘turnaround’. The following analysis covers multiple dimensions:

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According to the latest financial data [1], Seres shows strong profitability:

Indicator	Seres	Li Auto	Xpeng Motors	BYD
Gross Profit Margin	29.38%	16.3%↓	13.0%	19.3%
Net Profit Margin	5.10%	3.5%	-2.0%	5.5%
ROE	24.05%	8.5%	-5.0%	15.2%

• Industry-leading gross profit margin
  : Seres’ 29.38% gross profit margin is significantly higher than competitors, reflecting the premium capability of the AITO brand and cost control advantages [1]
• ROE as high as 24.05%
  : Leading among A-share auto companies, indicating high capital utilization efficiency
• High net profit growth
  : Net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.56% [1]

####1.2 AITO M9: Dominant Position in High-End Market

The market performance of the AITO M9 is phenomenal [2][3]:

• Cumulative deliveries exceed 260,000 units
  : Achieved this milestone 24 months after launch, ranking first in luxury cars priced above 500,000 yuan for 20 consecutive months
• Dominant market share
  : For new energy vehicles priced above 500,000 yuan in China, 7 out of every 10 sold are AITO M9, with a market share of up to 70%
• User structure reshaping
  : 85% of users are from the replacement/upgrade group of traditional luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi; 67% of them list “intelligent driving” as the top reason for purchase
• Top user satisfaction
  : According to J.D. Power data, the AITO M9 has won the first place in the Net Promoter Score (NPS) for all new energy vehicle models for two consecutive periods, with a peak of 91%

####1.3 Sustained Sales Growth

AITO series sales maintain strong growth momentum:

• AITO M9
  : Cumulative deliveries exceed 260,000 units, with monthly deliveries stable at tens of thousands
• AITO M7
  : Cumulative deliveries exceed 350,000 units, ranking first in new势力 SUV sales in 2024 [3]
• Jan-Nov 2024
  : Seres’ cumulative sales reach 411,288 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.58% [3]

####1.4 Deep Collaboration with Huawei

Seres’ cooperation with Huawei has upgraded to a deep binding model of “business + equity” [4]:

• Holds 10% equity in Shenzhen Yinwang, aligning interests more closely with Huawei
• Huawei’s Kunpeng Intelligent Driving ADS 4.0 system and HarmonyOS intelligent cockpit form core competitive barriers
• The “HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility” channel continues to expand, improving brand reach efficiency

Chart: Seres Profitability Comparison, AITO Sales Growth Trend, and Investment Logic Summary

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####2.1 Head and Shoulders Bottom Pattern Formed

According to technical analysis, Seres’ stock price has formed a complete head and shoulders bottom pattern [5], a classic bullish reversal pattern indicating that the trend may shift from decline to rise.

####2.2 MACD Bottom Divergence Signal

The MACD indicator shows bottom divergence, meaning the stock price hits a new low but MACD does not—this is a strong reversal signal [6]:

• Indicates fading downward momentum
• Bullish forces are accumulating
• High probability of rebound

####2.3 Convergent Triangle Consolidation, Imminent Breakout

The stock price oscillates within a convergent triangle, with gradually narrowing volatility, indicating the market is waiting for a direction choice. Combined with fundamental improvements, the probability of an upward breakout is high.

####2.4 Low Volume Appears, Selling Pressure Exhausted

Trading volume continues to shrink to low levels, indicating:

• Drying up of sell orders, sufficient release of selling pressure
• Strong market wait-and-see sentiment
• Easy to form an upward breakout once catalytic factors appear

Chart: Seres Stock Price Trend, MACD Bottom Divergence, RSI, and Volume Analysis

####2.5 Reasonable Pullback Range

A pullback of about 30% from the high is a normal technical correction, with no panic selling, indicating:

• Relatively stable confidence among holders
• Adjustment is more of a technical repair rather than fundamental deterioration
• Current position has a margin of safety

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####3.1 Accelerated Internationalization via Hong Kong IPO

Seres successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2025 [4]:

• Net proceeds reached 14.016 billion Hong Kong dollars, setting a record for the largest auto IPO in Hong Kong in 2025
• Fund use: 70% for R&D investment, 20% for overseas market expansion, 10% for operating capital
• Becomes the first domestic luxury new energy auto company listed on both A-share and Hong Kong markets

####3.2 Overseas Expansion Plan

Seres’ global layout has initially展开 [7]:

• Market side
  : Products have entered multiple countries in Europe, the Middle East, the Americas, and Africa; European business expanded to key regions like Norway, Germany, the UK, and Switzerland
• Manufacturing side
  : Overseas factory layout实现 a leap from “product export” to “manufacturing export”, fully replicating domestic intelligent manufacturing factory experience
• Technology output
  : Leveraging core technologies like semi-solid die-casting, it exports manufacturing standards and L3 autonomous driving technology overseas

####3.3 Sustained Performance Release in 2025-26

Based on the strong performance of the AITO M9/M7 and overseas expansion, market consensus expects:

• 2025
  : AITO M9 monthly sales stable above 20,000 units, AITO M7 monthly sales stable above 30,000 units; annual sales expected to exceed 500,000 units
• 2026
  : With overseas channel expansion and new models (e.g., AITO M8) launched, performance expected to maintain high growth
• Profitability
  : Gross profit margin and net profit margin expected to further improve, scale effects显现

####3.4 Optimized Industry Competition Pattern

Compared with “NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto”, Seres’ advantages in the high-end market are increasingly obvious [8]:

• Gross profit margin advantage
  : Seres’ 29.38% vs Li Auto’s16.3% vs Xpeng’s13%
• Product positioning
  : Seres focuses on the high-end market above 500,000 yuan, with relatively mild competition
• Channel efficiency
  : HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility adopts a “direct + dealer” model, with stronger channel sinking capabilities

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####4.1 Valuation Level

• Current stock price
  : Approximately 120 yuan (December 2025)
• Total market capitalization
  : Approximately 210.2 billion yuan
• Dynamic P/E ratio
  : 29.68x
• P/B ratio
  :7.70x

• Compared with its profitability (ROE 24.05%), current valuation is not high
• Considering its dominant position in the high-end market and growth, valuation is supported
• Compared with new energy leaders like Tesla and BYD, valuation is in a reasonable range

####4.2 Upside Calculation

(60% probability):

• Assume 2026 net profit reaches 10 billion yuan
• Give 30x PE (considering growth)
• Corresponding market capitalization:300 billion yuan, upside about43%

(30% probability):

• Assume2026 net profit reaches12 billion yuan
• Overseas expansion exceeds expectations
• Give35x PE
• Corresponding market capitalization:420 billion yuan, upside about100%

(10% probability):

• Intensified industry competition
• Sales below expectations
• Stock price maintains oscillation or slight decline

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####5.1 Financial Risks

• Debt ratio as high as76.36%
  [1], need to pay attention to cash flow status and refinancing pressure
• Accounts receivable book value continues to grow, need to be alert to bad debt risks

####5.2 Operational Risks

• High dependence on Huawei
  : If Huawei adjusts its strategy or cooperation issues arise, it will affect the company’s development
• New energy vehicle industry competition intensifies; Tesla price cuts, BYD sinking, new势力 breakthroughs may squeeze market space

####5.3 Technical Risks

• Uncertainty in intelligent driving technology routes
• Accelerated technology iteration speed, high R&D investment pressure

####5.4 Market Risks

• Short-term stock price fluctuations may be affected by market sentiment
• High valuation level; if performance is below expectations, it may face pullback pressure

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:

• Buy时机
  : Break through the key resistance level of 120 yuan to chase up
• Stop-loss level
  : Below110 yuan
• Target level
  :135-150 yuan (near previous high)
• Position
  :30-50%

:

• Buy时机
  : Layout during the pullback to the 115-118 yuan range
• Stop-loss level
  :110 yuan
• Target level
  :135-150 yuan
• Position
  :20-30%

:

• Buy时机
  : Build positions in batches, buy more as it falls
• Holding period
  :12-24 months
• Expected return
  :50-100%
• Core logic
  : High-end market dominance + deep Huawei binding + overseas expansion

1. Monthly sales
   : Whether AITO M9 monthly sales can maintain above20,000 units
2. Gross profit margin
   : Whether it can stabilize above28%
3. Overseas progress
   : Overseas expansion speed after Hong Kong IPO
4. Cooperation deepening
   : Whether there are new cooperation models or products with Huawei

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Seres has successfully transformed from a “Huawei contract manufacturer” to a “high-end new energy vehicle company”. Its dominant position in the high-end market, deep binding with Huawei, and internationalization strategy together form the foundation for a “turnaround”. Multiple reversal signals on the technical side further confirm the maturity of the investment opportunity.

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[1] Jinling API Data - Seres Financial Data and Real-Time Quotes
[2] AITO M9 Two Years After Launch: Behind the 260,000 Cumulative Deliveries - Reconstruction of China’s Luxury Car Value (Caifuhao, 2025-12-27)
[3] HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility AITO M9 Cumulative Deliveries Exceed260,000 Units Two Years After Launch (Sina Finance, 2025-12-28)
[4] Top 10 IPOs in the Auto Circle: Who is Worth Investing in? (Autohome,2025-12-28)
[5] December29, Monday: Technical Panorama of Hot Volatile Stocks (Caifuhao,2025-12-29)
[6] TradingView Technical Analysis Resources (TradingView)
[7] One Month After Seres’ Hong Kong IPO: Internationalization Strategy Gains Capital Focus (Sina Finance,2025-12-19)
[8] Monthly Sales 30,000 vs70,000: Behind the Sales Differentiation of New Power Brands (Sina Finance)