Analysis of Seres' Outperformance in the Low-Growth Auto Market in 2026

The following analysis is based on publicly available data and brokerage forecasts, and summarizes how Seres can achieve market outperformance in the low-growth environment of 2026.

1. Market Environment and Core Data (Source: Brokerage Forecasts and Online Searches)

• Overall auto market growth expectation: Nomura Securities predicts China’s auto sales will reach approximately 28.75 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, which is a stock/micro-growth phase characterized by ‘high sales volume, low growth rate’ [10].
• Industry trend: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to further increase, the market is shifting from incremental to stock competition, and competition will become more intense [9].

2. Seres’ Growth Targets and Implementation Path

• Sales targets and growth rate: Soochow Securities predicts AITO’s sales will be 546,000 units/664,000 units in 2025/2026, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 33%/22% [1]. Following this path, a growth rate of over 20% can be achieved in 2026, significantly outperforming the market’s approximately 2% growth rate [1][10].
• Increment sources (based on product planning and existing model performance):
  1. AITO M9: Flagship model’s stock replacement effect
     • From January to October 2025, AITO M9 sales reached approximately 100,600 units, ranking first among luxury SUVs in the 500,000 RMB class, higher than BMW X5 (55,500 units) and Mercedes-Benz GLE (27,000 units) [11].
     • As of December 2025, cumulative deliveries of AITO M9 exceeded 260,000 units; it accounted for approximately 70% of China’s new energy market above 500,000 RMB, and 85% of users came from trade-ins or upgrades from traditional luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi [11][12].
     • In November 2025, AITO M9 topped China’s passenger car sales list for models above 500,000 RMB, and its 1-year residual value rate reached approximately 78%, ranking first in plug-in hybrid/extended-range residual value rates for several consecutive months [11][12].
  2. New product matrix (2026): Fill gaps and strengthen competitiveness
     • AITO M6: Mid-to-large SUV, expected price range 250,000-300,000 RMB, filling the price gap between M5 and M7 [5].
     • M9L: Long-wheelbase version, targeting higher-positioned markets (e.g., million-level luxury) [5].
     • M5 facelift: Iterative upgrade to consolidate the mid-to-high-end household market [5].
     • M8 performance version: Enhance performance and product strength to cover mid-to-high-end segmented needs [4].
  3. Channels and ecosystem (HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility)
     • In 2026, HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility (AITO, Zhijie, Xiangjie, Shangjie, Zunjie) will launch more than ten new models, covering the full price range from 150,000 to 1 million RMB, and all categories from sedans, SUVs to MPVs and hard-core off-road vehicles [2][5].
     • HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility is advancing toward the target of approximately 1.3-2.2 million annual sales in 2026, and ecosystem synergy is expected to further amplify AITO’s channel and brand momentum [9].

3. Financial and Cost Perspective Considerations (Based on Obtained Information)

• Scale effect: If AITO’s sales reach the predicted 664,000 units in 2026 [1], the scale effect is expected to dilute per-unit fixed costs and R&D expenses, supporting profitability.
• Policy and cost factors: Public information indicates policy changes such as purchase tax subsidies in 2026 and fluctuations in raw material/battery costs [7][9]. Industry-level cost pressures will test each company’s supply chain management and pricing capabilities; Seres’ actual bearing capacity shall be subject to its subsequent announcements and financial reports.

4. Competitors and Relative Positioning (Based on Public Targets)

• 2026 targets of major auto companies (public reports from online searches): BYD approximately 4.5 million units, Changan Automobile approximately 3 million units, Leapmotor approximately 1 million units, and HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility’s overall target approximately 1.3-2.2 million units [7][8][9].
• Compared with Leapmotor, BYD, etc., Seres has formed certain differentiated advantages in the high-end path (represented by AITO M9) and residual value rate [11][12].

5. Key Observations (Based on Public Information)

• Execution delivery: The achievement of the above target of 550,000 units (with 664,000 units as the upper limit) depends on the timely launch of new products and supply chain stability [1][5].
• Market penetration: Whether the high-end market above 500,000 RMB can maintain its current high share, and whether new models can open up incremental space, will be key variables [11][12].
• Technology and ecosystem: The iteration rhythm of Huawei’s intelligent driving, cockpit, and HarmonyOS ecosystem capabilities will directly affect product competitiveness and user reputation [2][5].

6. Risks and Uncertainties (From Public Reports and Market Forecasts)

• Macroeconomic demand: If the actual growth rate of the auto market is lower than expected (e.g., Nomura’s prediction of approximately 2%), industry competition will further intensify [10].
• Policy and cost: Subsidy withdrawal, fluctuations in raw material and battery costs may compress profit margins [7][9].
• Execution risk: The parallel development of multiple models, capacity ramp-up, and channel expansion are difficult to execute; attention should be paid to delivery rhythm and quality control stability.

(Chart description: The above chart shows the price distribution of AITO’s 2026 product matrix, sales comparison of 500,000 RMB-class luxury SUVs, AITO’s sales growth trend, and sales target comparison of major auto companies in 2026. Data sources are as marked in the text.)

References

• Jinling API Data (Brokerage Forecasts and Industry Data): [0]
• Soochow Securities’ “2025 Investment Strategy for Automotive Intelligence” on Seres’ Performance Forecasts (Including AITO Sales and YoY Growth): [1] https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202412081641219266_1.pdf?1733653259000.pdf
• Sohu Auto: 2026 New Model Plans of Major Auto Companies (Including AITO M6, Zhijie V9, etc.): [5] https://db.m.auto.sohu.com/model_6803/a/968206637_122597549
• Autohome: 2026 AITO New Car Preview (M6, M9L, etc.): [4] https://chejiahao.autohome.com.cn/info/24604550
• Phoenix Auto: 2026 New Car Plan of HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility (Five Brands Layout, Over Ten New Models): [2] https://auto.ifeng.com/c/8pTpsXM3Raa
• Nomura Securities Global Automotive Industry Report (China’s 2026 Auto Sales Forecast of Approximately 28.75 Million Units, YoY +2%): [10] https://m.sohu.com/a/970411750_122594?scm=10001.325_13-325_13.0.0-0-0-0-0.5_1334
• Caifuhao: 2026 New Energy Vehicle Forecasts (Leapmotor’s 1 Million Units, BYD’s 4-4.5 Million Units, HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility’s 1.3-2.2 Million Units Target and Industry Penetration): [9] https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251221165849441149020
• Sohu: 2026 Sales Targets of Independent Auto Companies (BYD, Changan, Leapmotor, etc.): [8] https://www.sohu.com/a/969627115_389163
• Jiemian News: Leapmotor’s 2026 1 Million Units Target and Internal Letter Disclosure: [7] https://www.jiemian.com/article/13824009.html
• Huxiu: AITO M9’s “Triple Crown” Performance in 500,000 RMB-class Luxury Market (Sales, NPS, Residual Value Rate) (Including Sales Comparison): [11] https://www.huxiu.com/article/4820241.html
• Caifuhao: AITO M9’s 260,000 Units Delivery in Two Years and Residual Value Rate Data: [12] https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251227230926755879680
• Zhong’an Online: HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility’s 2026 New Energy Market Attack (Five Brands Layout and Million Units Target): [9] http://auto.anhuinews.com/rdzx/202512/t20251225_8996477.html
• New Energy Vehicle Industry Analysis (BEV New Car Launch and Market Trend): [9] http://www.cadcc.com.cn/article/3010.html
• Sohu: Nomura Securities’ Growth Forecasts for 2026 China and US Auto Markets: [10] https://m.sohu.com/a/970411750_122594?scm=10001.325_13-325_13.0.0-0-0-0-0.5_1334
• Autohome: AITO M9’s Sales and Share in 500,000 RMB-class Luxury Vehicles (Approximately 7 out of 10 are AITO M9): [11] https://www.huxiu.com/article/4820241.html
• China Automobile Dealers Association Residual Value Rate Report (AITO M9 Ranked First in Plug-in Hybrid/Extended-range Residual Value Rate for Several Consecutive Months): [11][12] https://www.huxiu.com/article/4820241.html, https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251227230926755879680