2026 In-depth Assessment Report on Investment Value of the Container Shipping Industry

Now let me provide you with a comprehensive investment value assessment report for the container shipping industry:

Based on current market data analysis,

, and investment value will show characteristics:

• Record-high order backlogs (approximately 11 million TEU), with order-to-fleet ratio reaching 30%
• A delivery peak of 3.3 million TEU will be reached in 2028
• After geopolitical disruptions ease, approximately 7-9% of the shipping capacity that detoured around the Red Sea will return to the market
• Freight index has dropped by 36% from its 2024 high [1]

• Valuations of leading companies are at historical lows (COSCO SHIPPING Holdings has a P/E ratio of only 6.19x) [0]
• Environmental regulations (CII/EEXI) continue to constrain supply efficiency by approximately 3-5% [2]
• 2026 tariff expectations may drive short-term shipments to be advanced

---

• Global container fleet grew from approximately 6 million TEU in 2000 to nearly 30 million TEU in 2025
• Current order backlog is approximately
  11 million TEU
  , with order-to-fleet ratio of about
  30%
  , which is at a historical warning level
• The expected delivery volume in 2028 will reach a historical peak of 3.3 million TEU
  [2]

The chart shows the forecast of fleet capacity expansion, supply-demand balance, and effective capacity constraints in the container shipping industry from 2024 to 2028. Key findings: Fleet capacity will grow by 31.6% from 2024 to 2028, and the order-to-fleet ratio will reach the 30% warning line in 2025.

1. Large Vessels Dominate
   : New orders are mainly concentrated on large vessels of 12,000+ TEU
2. Increasing Proportion of Green Vessels
   : Methanol/LNG dual-fuel vessels have become investment priorities
3. Accelerated Phase-out of Old Vessels
   : Vessels delivered between 2008 and 2010 (about 15 years old) face dismantling pressure

According to your background information, effective capacity is constrained by three factors:

• Current Impact
  : Absorbs approximately 7-9% of global supply (about 2.1-2.7 million TEU)
• 2026 Outlook
  : Geopolitical disruptions may ease
  • Capacity that detoured around the Cape of Good Hope will return to the Red Sea-Suez Canal route
  • Voyage time will be shortened by 10-14 days, improving turnover efficiency
  • Potential Risk
    : Approximately 2 million TEU of capacity will return to the market, exacerbating supply-demand imbalance [1]

• Impact Degree
  : Reduces vessel turnover efficiency by approximately 3-5%
• Mechanism
  :
  • CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) forces vessels to sail at reduced speeds
  • EEXI (Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index) limits main engine power
  • Some old vessels need to be retrofitted or retired early
• Long-term Impact
  : Constraints will further strengthen from 2026 to 2027 [2]

• Current Idle Capacity
  : Approximately 2-3% (about 0.6-0.9 million TEU)
• 2026 Forecast
  : May rise to 4-6%
  • Under oversupply pressure, shipping companies will take the initiative to suspend sailings
  • Non-environmentally friendly vessels are forced to exit the market
  • Route consolidation and capacity allocation optimization

• CAGR from 2024 to 2028 is approximately
  3.5%
  (lower than the supply side’s growth rate of 6-7%)
• Key Drivers:
  • Trade growth in emerging markets
  • Regional trade increments brought by industrial chain restructuring
  • Cross-border logistics demand from e-commerce

• Tariff Expectations (2026)
  : May drive advanced shipments from late 2025 to early 2026
• Geopolitical Easing
  : Reduces trade costs and stimulates demand growth
• Global Economic Slowdown
  : Suppresses container shipping demand

---

• November 28, 2025:
  1,403.13 points
• Compared to the 2024 median (2,303.44 points):
  down 36.19%
• Compared to the 5-year median (2,163.19 points):
  down 32.05%
  [1]

The chart shows the downward trend of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), which has continued to decline from its 2023 high to 2025.

• In December 2025, SCFI rose for two consecutive weeks to
  1,552.92 points
• Freight rates on the Europe route rose, with the US West Coast route up more than 10%
• Driving Factor
  : Tariff expectations drive advanced shipments [3]

• P/E Ratio
  : 6.19x (significantly lower than the industry average of 10-15x)
• P/B Ratio
  : 1.01x (close to book value)
• ROE
  : 16.14% (high profitability)
• Market Capitalization
  : $216.94B [0]

The chart shows the stock price trend, trading volume, and technical indicators of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919.HK) from 2024 to 2025. The current stock price is HK$13.91, MA20 is 13.70, MA60 is 13.36, and RSI is 50.77 (neutral zone).

• Conservative Scenario:
  $161.51
  (+1,061% upside potential)
• Base Scenario:
  $121.37
  (+773% upside potential)
• Optimistic Scenario:
  $189.09
  (+1,259% upside potential) [0]

• Trend
  : Sideways Consolidation (support at $13.70, resistance at $14.04) [0]
• KDJ
  : Bullish (K:78.4, D:64.2, J:106.7)
• Beta
  : 0.93 (moderate correlation with the market)

---

• Red Sea Crisis resolved in H1 2026
• 7-9% of detoured capacity returns to the market
• New vessel deliveries proceed as planned (3 million TEU delivered in 2026)

• Effective Capacity Increase
  : Approximately 2-2.5 million TEU
• Supply-Demand Gap
  : Oversupply of approximately 1.5-2 million TEU
• Freight Rate Impact
  : SCFI may fall below 1,000 points (another 30% drop from current levels)
• Profit Impact
  : Industry net profit may drop by 40-60%

• Leading companies’ stock prices may drop by 30-50%
• Focus on companies with strong risk resistance and sound financials

• Red Sea Crisis persists until end of 2026
• Strict enforcement of environmental regulations, efficiency loss expands to5-7%
• Accelerated dismantling of some old vessels

• Effective Capacity Constraint
  : Approximately10-12% (Red Sea:7% + Environmental:5%)
• Supply-Demand Balance
  : Basic balance or slight shortage
• Freight Rate Performance
  : SCFI remains in the range of1,400-1,600 points
• Profit Level
  : Industry maintains moderate profits

• Leading companies have large valuation repair potential
• Focus on companies leading in green transformation

• Global trade growth exceeds expectations in2026 (4-5%)
• New vessel deliveries delayed or canceled (shipyard capacity bottlenecks)
• Tariff policies drive large-scale advanced shipments

• Demand Increment
  : Approximately1-1.5 million TEU
• Supply Constraint
  : New vessel deliveries delayed by20-30%
• Supply-Demand Gap
  : Shortage of approximately0.5-1 million TEU
• Freight Rate Rebound
  : SCFI may rebound to1,800-2,000 points

• Leading companies’ stock prices are expected to double
• Focus on companies with high capacity flexibility and excellent cost control

---

###5.1 Short-Term Strategy (0-6 Months): Cautious Observation

• Freight rates are in a downward channel, but there may be a seasonal rebound at the end of2025
• High geopolitical uncertainty, severe short-term volatility
• Valuations have reflected some pessimistic expectations, but the bottom is not clear

1. Wait for Better Entry Opportunities

• Consider building positions when SCFI falls below 1,200 points
• Focus on COSCO SHIPPING Holdings’ support range of $12-13

2. Focus on Short-Term Catalysts

• 2026 tariff policy implementation
• Substantial progress in Red Sea Crisis
• Shipment peak before Spring Festival

###5.2 Mid-Term Strategy (6-18 Months): Structural Opportunities

• Supply-demand relationship will be clearer in Q2-Q3 2026
• Environmental constraint effects will gradually emerge
• Leading companies are expected to integrate the market through mergers and acquisitions

1. Certainty: Leading Companies

• COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919.HK): P/E6.19x, ROE16.14%, strong risk resistance [0]
• Maersk (AMKBY): Up 21.68% from2024-2025, lagging behind the industry [0]

2. Growth: Green Transformation Leaders

• Companies with a high proportion of methanol/LNG dual-fuel vessels ordered
• Companies with young fleets and lower environmental compliance costs

3. Flexibility: Capacity Optimization Capability

• Companies that can quickly adjust capacity allocation
• Companies with strong cost control capabilities during periods of rising idle capacity

###5.3 Long-Term Strategy (18+ Months): Industry Pattern Reshaping

• After the delivery peak from2026-2028, the order-to-fleet ratio will return to normal
• Environmental regulations will accelerate the phase-out of old vessels
• Industry concentration will further increase, and leading companies’ bargaining power will strengthen

1. Layout at the Bottom of the Cycle

• The second half of2026 may be the start of a new cycle
• Current valuations provide sufficient safety margins

2. Industrial Chain Integration

• End-to-end capabilities in terminals, logistics, and digital services
• Value chain extension from “port-to-port” to “door-to-door”

---

###6.1 Key Risks

Risk Type	Specific Performance	Impact Degree
Oversupply	3.3 million TEU new vessels delivered from2026-2028	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Geopolitical Easing	Red Sea route resumes, 2 million TEU capacity returns	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Weak Demand	Global trade growth lower than expected	⭐⭐⭐
Rising Environmental Costs	Increased CII/EEXI compliance costs	⭐⭐
Price War	Intensified industry competition, continuous freight rate decline	⭐⭐⭐⭐

###6.2 Response Measures

• Allocate shipping companies from different regions and with different vessel types
• Focus on upstream and downstream links such as logistics and terminals

• Adjust positions timely based on freight index changes
• Set stop-loss levels (e.g., if key support levels are broken)

• Market share increase brought by mergers and acquisitions
• Industry pattern optimization after capacity clearance

---

###7.1 Overall Judgment

supply-demand imbalance will intensify, and freight rates will be under downward pressure.

###7.2 Investment Clock

2025 Q4: Observation Period
├─ Seasonal rebound in freight rates
├─ Tariff expectations drive advanced shipments
└─ Recommendation: Wait for better entry opportunities

2026 Q1-Q2: Stress Test Period
├─ New vessel delivery peak begins
├─ Possible resolution of Red Sea Crisis
└─ Recommendation: Light positions, focus on risks

2026 Q3-Q4: Differentiation Period
├─ Supply-demand relationship gradually clarifies
├─ Environmental constraint effects emerge
└─ Recommendation: Layout high-quality leading companies

2027+: Start of New Cycle
├─ Delivery peak ends
├─ Industry integration accelerates
└─ Recommendation: Long-term holding of high-quality targets

###7.3 Core Investment Logic

• Freight rate downward trend unchanged
• High geopolitical uncertainty
• Wait for better entry opportunities (SCFI <1,200 points)

• Valuations of leading companies like COSCO SHIPPING Holdings are at historical lows
• Environmental constraints and fleet renewal support long-term value
• Focus on companies with both “green transformation + cost control” advantages

• After the delivery peak from2026-2028, supply pressure eases
• Industry concentration increases, leading companies’ bargaining power strengthens
• End-to-end logistics services open a second growth curve

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[0] Gilin API Data (stock prices, financial data, technical analysis, DCF valuation)
[1] International Maritime Information Network - “Review of China Container Freight Index from January to November 2025” (http://www.simic.net.cn/news-show.php?id=275090)
[2] Lloyd’s List - “Shipping in 2026 and beyond: the future isn’t what it used to be” (https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155940)
[3] Sina Finance - “SCFI Rises for Two Consecutive Weeks! Container Shipping Market Rebounds in Off-Season” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-24/doc-inhcwaft4612948.shtml)
[4] Hapag-Lloyd Official Website - “Hapag-Lloyd orders eight new dual-fuel methanol container ships” (https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/company/press/releases/2025/12/hapag-lloyd-orders-eight-new-dual-fuel-methanol-container-ships.html)
[5] Shipping Information/Maritime Network - Related to “Container Shipping Market Rebounds in Off-Season”