Can the High Growth of Copper Mining Companies Continue? In-depth Analysis of Investment Logic for Zijin Mining and CMOC Group

Based on the analysis of current market data, the high growth of copper mining companies

, mainly driven by three structural factors:

According to the latest market data, the LME copper price has exceeded the historical high of

, with a cumulative increase of about in 2025, which is expected to set the best annual performance since 2009 [1]. Deutsche Bank predicts that the global copper market has entered a structural turning point:

• Severely constrained supply side
  : The output of the world’s largest miners will drop by
  3%
  in 2025 and may continue to decline in 2026 [1]
• Strong demand growth
  : Driven by electrification and digitalization trends, including electric vehicles, charging piles, smart grids, and AI data centers
• Market enters a “clear deficit state”
  : A supply shortage of up to
  30%
  may occur by 2035 [4]

Analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) point out that global copper demand will continue to surge due to energy transition and artificial intelligence development. The Copper Mining Market is expected to grow from $9.24 billion in 2024 to $13.93 billion in 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of

[4].

Deutsche Bank reports that the global mining industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with increased supply concentration [1]. Large mining companies (such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Glencore) are adjusting their strategies:

• Business simplification and capital discipline
  : Rio Tinto plans to control capital expenditure below $100 billion
• Divest non-core assets
  : Focus on key metals like copper
• Active M&A activities
  : Industry consolidation expectations are enhanced

This consolidation trend helps maintain copper prices at high levels and provides sustained profitability for mining companies.

Unlike the late 1990s internet bubble, current AI infrastructure construction is driven by

[5]:

• High-performance computing servers
  : Require a large amount of copper for power transmission
• Electric vehicle charging piles
  : An average charging pile uses about 8-17 kg of copper
• Smart grid upgrades
  : Large-scale copper investment is needed for renewable energy grid integration
• Data centers
  : Surge in AI training and inference demand leads to increased copper demand in data centers

Barron’s points out that the technical pattern of copper is very similar to that of gold in March 2024, when gold broke through a 13-year sideways trend and continued to rise, and copper prices have also started a “long-term bull market” [5].

---

• 2025 YTD increase
  : +140.62%
• 1-year increase
  : +139.27%
• 3-year increase
  : +224.95%
• 5-year increase
  : +305.71%
• Current market capitalization
  : HK$905.3 billion
• Current stock price
  : HK$34.12 (December 29, 2025) [0]

• 2025 YTD increase
  : +250.47%
• 1-year increase
  : +251.81%
• 3-year increase
  : +415.92%
• 5-year increase
  : +284.79%
• Current market capitalization
  : HK$398.1 billion
• Current stock price
  : HK$18.47 (December 29, 2025) [0]

The stock performance of both companies

(Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Glencore), as shown in the chart above, reflecting the rise of Chinese copper mining companies in the global competitive landscape.

[0]:

• ROE (Return on Equity)
  : 30.60% (industry-leading level)
• Net Profit Margin
  : 13.91%
• Operating Profit Margin
  : 20.11%
• Current Ratio
  : 1.20 (good liquidity)
• P/E Ratio
  : 19.00x (reasonable valuation)

[0]:

• Trend
  : Sideways consolidation, trading range of HK$33.42-HK$34.82
• Beta
  : 1.25 (higher than market volatility)
• Support Level
  : HK$33.42
• Resistance Level
  : HK$34.82

1. Rapid Production Growth
   : According to web search charts, from 2015 to 2023, Zijin Mining’s mine copper production increased by more than 700,000 metric tons, significantly surpassing other international miners [3]
2. Global Layout
   : Zijin Mining has copper and gold assets in South America, Africa, Australia, and other regions, forming a global resource map [3]
3. Cost Advantage
   : As a Chinese company, Zijin has relative advantages in overseas M&A and operation costs
4. Diversified Product Portfolio
   : In addition to copper, it also has gold, zinc, and other metals, diversifying the risk of price fluctuations of a single commodity

[0]:

• ROE
  : 26.48% (excellent)
• Net Profit Margin
  : 9.59%
• Operating Profit Margin
  : 16.58%
• Current Ratio
  : 1.57 (sufficient liquidity)
• P/E Ratio
  : 20.57x (reasonable valuation)

[0]:

• Trend
  : Sideways consolidation, trading range of HK$18.02-HK$18.92
• Beta
  : 1.14 (slightly higher than market)
• MACD
  : Death Cross (bearish)
• Support Level
  : HK$18.02
• Resistance Level
  : HK$18.92

1. Core Position in New Energy Industry Chain
   : CMOC Group is a leading global cobalt producer, and cobalt is a key material for electric vehicle batteries, benefiting from the explosive growth of new energy vehicles
2. Dual Core Drive of Copper and Cobalt
   : The company has both copper and cobalt core assets, fully benefiting from energy transition
3. African Resource Advantage
   : The company owns world-class mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the TFM project is one of the world’s largest copper-cobalt mines
4. Clear Production Growth
   : According to the company’s announcement, copper and cobalt production will continue to grow in the next few years

According to the production growth analysis chart (mentioned above), the copper production of Zijin Mining and CMOC Group has achieved significant growth from 2020 to 2024:

• Zijin Mining
  : From about 500,000 tons to 855,000 tons, a cumulative increase of about
  68.6%
• CMOC Group
  : From about 182,500 tons to 552,000 tons, a cumulative increase of about
  202.5%

This tangible production growth, rather than pure speculation, is the core driver of stock price increases, which also confirms the logic mentioned in the user’s post.

---

Copper is widely used in renewable energy systems:

• Wind Turbines
  : Each unit requires about 4-8 tons of copper
• Solar Photovoltaics
  : Each megawatt requires about 5 tons of copper
• Electric Vehicles
  : Each electric vehicle uses about 83 kg of copper (compared to only about 23 kg for traditional fuel vehicles)
• Grid Infrastructure
  : Smart grid upgrades require a large amount of copper cables

With the advancement of global carbon neutrality goals, copper demand will receive long-term structural support.

Zijin Mining and CMOC Group have shown unique advantages in internationalization:

1. M&A Capability
   : Chinese companies have strong capital strength and M&A execution capabilities
2. Operational Efficiency
   : Relatively low project operation costs in regions like Africa and South America
3. Technology Output
   : Chinese mining technology is recognized in overseas projects
4. Policy Support
   : The “Belt and Road Initiative” provides convenience for Chinese companies’ overseas investment

The current valuation levels of both companies are relatively reasonable:

• Zijin Mining
  : P/E ratio of 19.00x, lower than tech stocks but higher than traditional cyclical stocks
• CMOC Group
  : P/E ratio of 20.57x, considering its high growth, the valuation is attractive

Compared to tech stocks with P/E ratios of 30-50x, copper mining stocks enjoy growth while having relatively controllable valuation risks.

---

Despite the strong long-term logic, investors still need to pay attention to the following risks:

According to technical analysis [0]:

• Zijin Mining
  : Currently in a sideways consolidation phase, with unclear short-term direction
• CMOC Group
  : MACD shows a death cross, with short-term correction pressure

Although Chinese demand has weakened, copper prices are still rising, which reflects that

may be more serious than demand-side ones [2]. However, if the global economy falls into a deep recession, copper demand may still be impacted.

Political situation changes in major copper-producing countries (Chile, Peru, DRC) may affect supply. The rise of trade protectionism may also disrupt global copper trade flows.

The stock prices of both companies have increased significantly in 2025, and there is a need for short-term technical correction. If copper prices fail to maintain high levels, stock prices may face correction pressure.

---

Reasons:

1. Long-term supply-demand pattern supports copper prices at high levels
2. Structural demand growth from AI, new energy, and smart grid upgrades
3. Accelerated industry consolidation benefits leading companies
4. Chinese companies’ global competitiveness improves, and market share is expected to expand

Reasons:

1. Both companies have seen significant short-term increases, with technical correction signals
2. Currently in a sideways consolidation phase, wait for clear trends
3. Consider entering after technical correction to support levels (HK$33.42 for Zijin Mining, HK$18.02 for CMOC Group)

It is recommended to allocate copper mining stocks as

, accounting for of the stock portfolio:

• Core Position
  : Zijin Mining (global leader, lower risk)
• Satellite Position
  : CMOC Group (high elasticity, greater benefit from new energy)

---

, with core supporting factors including:

1. ✅
   Long-term supply-demand gap
   : Constrained supply + strong demand support long-term high copper prices
2. ✅
   New technology revolution
   : AI, electric vehicles, and smart grids create incremental demand
3. ✅
   Industry consolidation
   : Increased supply concentration, pricing power shifts to leading companies
4. ✅
   Globalization advantages of Chinese enterprises
   : M&A capability, cost advantage, technology output

• Historical increases are driven by
  tangible production and profit growth
  , not pure speculation
• Zijin Mining: A global mining giant with ROE up to 30.6% and continuous production growth
• CMOC Group: Driven by copper and cobalt, a core beneficiary of the new energy industry chain, with a 3-year increase of 416%

: Although the long-term logic is strong, short-term technical corrections need to be vigilant. Long-term investors are advised to布局 on dips, while short-term investors wait for better entry opportunities.

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[0] Jinling API Data - Company Profile, Real-Time Quotes, Financial Analysis, Technical Analysis, Stock Price Data

[1] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “Copper Price Hits New High Again Today! Deutsche Bank: Severe Supply Disruptions + Industry Consolidation Will Widen Copper Market Gap in 2026” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/銅價今再創高-德銀-嚴釉供懍中斷-行業大整合-2026銅市缺口擴大將持續-093004660.html)

[2] Yahoo Finance - “Copper Hits $12,000 for First Time as Tariff Trade Upends Market” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-hits-12-000-first-124000631.html)

[3] Bloomberg Chinese - “Copper Price Touches New High, Breaking $12,000: Tariff Policy Disrupts Market Pattern” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/銅價觸及新高突破12-000美元-關稅政策攪動市場格局-110859106.html)

[4] Yahoo Finance - “A Global Copper Crunch Is Looming” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-copper-crunch-looming-200000631.html)

[5] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “Long Bull Market for Copper Emerges! Barron’s Names Six Major Mining Stocks” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/銅市長牛初現-巴隆點名六大礦股-024107750.html)

[6] Yahoo Finance - “Mining in 2025: emerging trends and predictions for 2026” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mining-2025-emerging-trends-predictions-124520679.html)