Analysis of the Impact of Solid-State Battery Technology Breakthroughs on Panasonic's Ternary Lithium Battery Business

Based on the collected information, I will provide you with a systematic analysis of the impact of solid-state battery technology breakthroughs on Panasonic’s ternary lithium battery business.

The global solid-state battery industry has entered a rapid development phase, showing a development rhythm of

[1]. According to the latest industry research report, solid-state battery samples from companies such as Dongfeng and CATL have achieved breakthroughs in extreme environment adaptability and safety, with energy density generally reaching the , far exceeding the current level of 250-300Wh/kg for ternary lithium batteries [1].

• BYD
  has increased the cycle life of lithium metal anodes from 200 cycles to 800 cycles through the “3D porous current collector + in-situ solid electrolyte layer” technology, and plans to conduct vehicle loading tests in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]
• Qingtao Energy
  invested 7 billion yuan in Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia to build a zero-carbon industrial park for solid-state batteries, covering 50,000 tons of special cathode material capacity for solid-state batteries and 10GWh of solid-state battery cell capacity [1]
• Leading enterprises such as
  CATL, Toyota, and Mercedes-Benz
  are all focusing on the sulfide route, whose ionic conductivity has approached the level of liquid electrolytes [2]

Time Node	Industrialization Progress
2025-2026	Domestic pilot lines are densely deployed, and full-solid vehicle loading verification is launched
2027	Small-batch loading of all-solid-state batteries (conclusion of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s solid-state battery project)
2028-2029	First volume production in high-value fields such as low-altitude economy and robots
2030	Enter the stage of large-scale application in mid-to-high-end power fields

The growth expectation of market scale is also significant: solid-state battery shipments will grow from about 7GWh in 2024 to

in 2030 [2].

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Panasonic’s energy business accounts for about

of the group’s total revenue (about 614.88 billion yen), which is one of the important profit sources of Panasonic Group [0]. In the global cylindrical lithium battery market, Panasonic and LG Energy Solution form a , but face rapid catch-up from Chinese enterprises CATL and BYD.

Panasonic’s battery business has long relied on Tesla’s orders. Tesla is Panasonic’s largest battery customer, and this highly concentrated customer structure brings significant risks when the market pattern changes.

According to the latest financial data, Panasonic’s current stock price is $9.36, with a market capitalization of $21.85 billion and a price-earnings ratio of 14.89 times. The stock price performance is relatively weak,

, with a YTD decline of 4.68% [0]. The latest quarterly financial report shows revenue of $13.21 billion and EPS of $0.19, with overall profitability and growth facing challenges.

• ROE (Return on Equity): 6.73%
• Net Profit Margin: 3.98%
• Current Ratio: 1.26

1. Deep Technical Accumulation:
   Mature cylindrical battery technology with high yield rate
2. High Brand Awareness:
   Long-term supply of batteries to Tesla with reliable quality
3. 4680 Battery Layout:
   Promoting mass production preparation of 4680 large cylindrical batteries

1. High Customer Concentration:
   Dependence on Tesla exceeds 60%
2. Insufficient Cost Competitiveness:
   Obvious disadvantage in cost control compared to Chinese enterprises
3. Slow Capacity Expansion:
   Compared with CATL’s global layout, the capacity expansion speed is lagging behind

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In the short term, the impact of solid-state batteries on Panasonic’s business is

, for the following reasons:

The current cost of all-solid-state batteries is about , which is that of traditional liquid batteries (100 USD/kWh) [1]. Although enterprises such as BYD plan to reduce the cost to 200 USD/kWh in 2025, they still need to rely on scale effect to achieve further cost reduction.

2025-2026 will mainly be the stage of pilot line construction and verification, and small-batch loading can only be realized in 2027. Real large-scale mass production will have to wait until after 2028.

Semi-solid batteries replace flammable liquid electrolytes with partial solid electrolytes (liquid component ratio is usually less than 10%), which has both safety improvement and compatibility with existing production lines [2]. However, the preparation process of all-solid-state batteries is quite different from traditional liquid batteries, and the equipment value has increased significantly. Panasonic needs a large amount of capital expenditure to upgrade production lines.

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Technological Gap	The energy density of solid-state batteries breaks through 500Wh/kg, forming a technological gap advantage over existing ternary lithium batteries
Market Positioning	Solid-state batteries will first penetrate the high-end electric vehicle market (800V high-voltage platform, models with large batteries above 100kWh)
Price War Pressure	As the scale effect of solid-state batteries becomes apparent, the price war pressure of traditional lithium batteries will be transmitted to traditional manufacturers such as Panasonic
Customer Churn Risk	High-end model customers may switch to new-generation products using solid-state batteries

1. Loss of High-end Market:
   Energy density and safety are core demands of high-end electric vehicles, and the advantages of solid-state batteries in these two aspects will attract high-end brands to switch
2. Marginalization of Technical Route:
   As all-solid-state batteries become the mainstream technical route, ternary lithium batteries may be gradually marginalized into low-end or specific application scenario products
3. Profit Margin Compression:
   The high added value of solid-state batteries will attract capital market and industrial resources, and the financing capacity and valuation of traditional lithium battery business will be affected

1. Industrial Pattern Reshaping:
   The solid-state battery industry chain will form a new upstream, midstream and downstream pattern, and enterprises that master core materials such as solid electrolytes and lithium metal anodes will gain industry chain dominance
2. Technical Route Replacement:
   Ternary lithium batteries may degenerate into “transition technology”, and face the risk of being replaced unless they maintain advantages in cost or specific application scenarios
3. Strategic Transformation Pressure:
   Panasonic needs to make large-scale investments in the solid-state battery field, otherwise it may face the risk of business shrinkage or even withdrawal from the power battery market

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• Increase R&D investment in solid-state battery technology
• Deepen cooperation with Japanese automakers such as Toyota and Honda
• Use existing 4680 battery production lines for solid-state battery transformation

• Shrink the high-end market and focus on price-sensitive mid-to-low-end markets
• Leverage cost control experience in the cylindrical battery field
• Maintain competitiveness through scale effect and lean production

• Shift the focus of energy business from power batteries to segmented fields such as energy storage and consumer batteries
• Gradually exit the highly competitive power battery market
• Shift resources to other high-growth businesses

Based on the current competitive pattern, it is recommended that Panasonic adopt a

:

• Maintain the profitability of existing ternary lithium battery business
• Accelerate mass production preparation of 4680 batteries and maintain technological leadership
• Make small-scale investments in solid-state battery technology R&D

• Adjust strategic direction according to the industrialization progress of solid-state batteries
• If the progress of solid-state batteries is not as expected, continue to deepen the ternary lithium battery business
• If solid-state batteries achieve rapid breakthroughs, accelerate the transformation to solid-state batteries

• Complete the technical transformation to solid-state batteries
• Focus on high-end segmented markets and leverage brand and technical accumulation advantages
• Consider strategic cooperation or business integration with other enterprises when necessary

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##5. Conclusion and Outlook

###5.1 Core Conclusions

1. Breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology will exert long-term pressure on Panasonic’s ternary lithium battery business, but the short-term impact is limited
   • Solid-state batteries will be difficult to mass-produce on a large scale before 2027, so the impact on existing businesses is controllable
   • The period from 2027 to 2030 will be a critical competition phase, and the high-end market may be gradually lost
   • If strategic transformation is not carried out after 2030, Panasonic may face severe survival challenges

2. Panasonic’s Core Competitiveness Faces Disruption Risk
   • The technical accumulation of ternary lithium batteries will decline in value in the solid-state battery era
   • High dependence on Tesla increases strategic vulnerability
   • Cost competitiveness is difficult to match Chinese enterprises

3. Strategic Window Period is About 3-5 Years
   • Panasonic needs to make strategic choices before 2027
   • Investment in the solid-state battery field will determine its long-term competitiveness
   • Slow strategic response may lead to irreversible decline in market position

###5.2 Risk Tips

• Technical Route Risk:
  If the sulfide route fails to become mainstream, Panasonic’s early investment may be wasted
• Cost Reduction Below Expectations:
  If the cost of solid-state batteries remains high for a long time, the replacement process will be delayed
• Policy Change Risk:
  Changes in new energy vehicle subsidy policies in various countries may affect the market pattern
• Macroeconomic Fluctuation:
  Slowdown in the growth rate of electric vehicle demand may affect the entire industry chain

###5.3 Investor Recommendations

For investors focusing on Panasonic stocks, it is recommended:

• Short-term (6-12 months):
  Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to the mass production progress of 4680 batteries
• Mid-term (1-3 years):
  Closely follow Panasonic’s strategic layout in the solid-state battery field
• Long-term (3-5 years):
  Reassess investment value based on the industrialization progress of solid-state batteries and Panasonic’s strategic choices

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[1] Sina Finance - Solid-State Battery Industry Research Report: Vehicle Application Accelerates, Industry Chain is Expected to Undergo Changes (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-12-04/doc-infzqyfh0537751.shtml)

[2] CITIC Securities - Investment Prospects of Solid-State Battery Industry (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251220A06F5Q00)

[0] Jinling API - Panasonic Holdings Corporation Company Overview (PCRFY)