2026 Container Shipping Industry Investment Guide: Opportunity and Risk Assessment Under Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance

Now I will prepare a comprehensive 2026 Container Shipping Industry Investment Guide for you.

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The 2026 container shipping industry presents

: The surge in nominal supply-side capacity (order backlog exceeds 10 million TEU, Orderbook-to-Fleet Ratio about 30%) is offset by constraints on effective capacity absorption (geopolitical frictions, environmental regulations, ship aging). It is estimated that nominal capacity will grow by 7.2% in 2026, but effective capacity will actually decline by 6.4%. The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve in the second half of 2026, creating for investors.

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According to industry data, the container shipping industry will迎来

in 2026:

• Order backlog
  : Exceeds 10 million TEU, accounting for about 30% of the existing fleet [0]
• 2026 new ship deliveries
  : Approximately 2.6 million TEU expected
• Scrapping volume
  : Only about 0.2 million TEU (delayed scrapping of aging ships)
• Net capacity increase
  : About 2.4 million TEU

: The chart shows the evolution of global container shipping supply-demand growth rates from 2020 to 2026. Key findings:

• 2025
  : Capacity growth 8.5%, demand growth 2.8%, supply-demand gap +5.7%
• 2026E
  : Capacity growth 7.2%, demand growth 3.2%, supply-demand gap +4.0%

Although there is nominal overcapacity pressure, the actual supply of effective capacity needs to consider multiple constraints.

The order backlog to fleet ratio is expected to remain at a high level of

in 2026, far above the historical average (15-20%), indicating sustained capacity expansion pressure in the short to medium term.

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: Despite nominal capacity growth of 7.2%, after considering six factors, .

: Absorbs about of capacity

• Detour via Cape of Good Hope
  : Since November 2023, the Red Sea crisis has forced major shipping companies to detour around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The Asia-Europe route voyage increases by about 30-40%, and sailing time increases by 10-14 days
• Passive Capacity Absorption
  : According to industry analysis, this detour is equivalent to
  effectively absorbing 7-9% of global capacity
• Sustained Uncertainty
  : Geopolitical situation in 2026 remains highly uncertain, and the timeline for the Red Sea route to return to normal is difficult to predict [1]

: Absorbs about of capacity

Environmental regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have a significant impact on ship operations:

• CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator)
  : Requires ships to reduce carbon emission intensity; ships with D/E ratings need to formulate rectification plans
• EEXI (Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index)
  : Limits main engine power and enforces speed reduction
• Slow Steaming
  : To meet carbon emission requirements, ships generally reduce speed by 10-15%, equivalent to
  absorbing 3-5% of excess capacity

: Absorbs about of capacity

• Scrapping volume lower than expected
  : Only 0.2 million TEU is expected to be scrapped in 2026, far below the historical cycle high
• Aging capacity remains in operation
  : Due to high new ship construction costs and improved freight rate expectations, shipowners tend to extend the service life of aging ships
• 2027-2028 scrapping peak
  : A real scrapping peak is expected in 2027-2028

• Port Congestion
  : Absorbs about 1.5% of capacity
• Crew Shortage
  : Absorbs about 0.8% of capacity
• Speed Optimization
  : Releases about 1.2% of capacity (partially offset)

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About

of new ship orders from 2023 to 2025 have alternative fuel capability, mainly including:

• LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)
  : Mature technology, relatively complete infrastructure, but faces methane leakage controversy
• Methanol
  : Green methanol path led by Maersk, lower carbon emissions, but higher cost
• Ammonia
  : Zero carbon emission potential, but technology not yet mature; safety and cost remain challenges
• LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)
  : Transitional fuel option

• New ship cost premium
  : Dual-fuel ships cost
  15-25%
  more than traditional ships
• Fuel cost difference
  : Green methanol price is
  2-3 times
  higher than traditional fuel oil
• Extended investment return cycle
  : The investment return cycle of green ships extends from the traditional 8-10 years to 12-15 years

Green transformation is not only an environmental requirement but also a

:

• Customer preference change
  : Large shippers (such as Walmart, Amazon) require supply chain carbon reduction
• Increasing regulatory pressure
  : EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will gradually cover the shipping industry
• Financing cost difference
  : Green ships can obtain lower financing costs

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Risk Factor	Potential Impact	Probability
Red Sea crisis eases, Suez Canal resumes navigation	7-8% capacity released, freight rates drop sharply	Medium
Global economic growth lower than expected	Demand growth below 2%	High
New ship deliveries exceed expectations	Capacity growth exceeds 10%	Medium
Ship scrapping accelerates	Supply-demand improves, freight rates rise	Low

• China-US trade friction
  : Tariff policy changes may affect trans-Pacific route demand [2]
• Trump administration’s trade policy
  : May impact the global trade system in 2026; experts expect “more trade turmoil” [3]
• Regional conflicts
  : The duration of geopolitical events such as the Red Sea crisis and Russia-Ukraine conflict is highly uncertain

The container shipping industry has

characteristics, currently in:

• Cycle position
  : Adjustment period after the 2021-2022 super cycle
• Freight rate level
  : SCFI index rebounded to 1656.32 points in December 2025, but still far below the 2021 high (about 5000 points) [4]
• Profitability
  : COSCO Shipping Holdings’ 2025 ROE was 16.14%, a significant drop from the 2021 high but still at a healthy level [0]

• High leverage risk
  : Some shipping companies accumulated large debts during the new ship order peak
• Cash flow pressure
  : Large payments are required after new ship delivery, which may affect cash flow
• Asset impairment risk
  : If freight rates remain low, ship assets may face impairment pressure

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[0]:

• Stock price
  : HK$13.91
• P/E ratio
  : 6.19x (far below historical average)
• P/B ratio
  : 1.01x (close to book value)
• ROE
  : 16.14% (strong profitability)
• Net profit margin
  : 16.78%
• Current ratio
  : 1.50 (financially sound)

:

• Current P/E is in the historical low range, reflecting market concerns about 2026 freight rate decline
• P/B close to 1.0x provides a certain margin of safety
• High ROE (16.14%) indicates strong profitability

• Risks
  : New ship delivery peak + demand uncertainty
• Strategy
  : Wait for clearer signals, focus on:

1. Whether the Red Sea situation eases
2. Freight rate trend after the Spring Festival
3. Global economic data

• Opportunities
  : Effective capacity decline + demand recovery
• Strategy
  : Gradually build positions during market panic
• Targets
  :

1. Industry leaders
   : COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK), Maersk, CMA CGM
2. Regional leaders
   : SITC International (1308.HK), Hapag-Lloyd
3. Green transformation pioneers
   : Companies with high proportion of green ship orders

• Long-term logic
  :

1. Supply-demand structure will improve due to scrapping peak in 2027-2028
2. Green transformation will raise industry entry barriers, and concentration of leading enterprises will increase
3. Geopolitics will become long-term, and route restructuring will become normal

Evaluation Dimension	Key Indicators	Weight
Financial Health	Debt ratio, cash flow, interest coverage ratio	25%
Profitability	ROE, net profit margin, EBITDA margin	25%
Fleet Quality	Average ship age, green ship ratio, order-to-fleet ratio	20%
Cost Control	Cost per TEU, fuel efficiency	15%
Strategic Layout	Route diversification, port assets, logistics integration	15%

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##7. Risk Hedging Strategies

###7.1 Portfolio Diversification

• Regional diversification
  : Allocate companies in different route markets (Asia-Europe, trans-Pacific, intra-regional routes)
• Scale diversification
  : Balance allocation of industry leaders and regional small and medium-sized shipping companies
• Industrial chain diversification
  : Allocate shipowners, ports, and logistics service providers simultaneously

###7.2 Dynamic Adjustment Strategy

• Freight rate monitoring
  : Closely follow changes in freight rate indices such as SCFI and CCFI [4]
• Order tracking
  : Regularly update the delivery progress of order backlogs
• Geopolitical monitoring
  : Track the situation in key regions such as the Red Sea and Russia-Ukraine

###7.3 Stop-Loss Discipline

• Technical stop-loss
  : Reduce positions when breaking key support levels (e.g., 200-day moving average)
• Fundamental stop-loss
  : Adjust in time when core assumptions (such as sustained Red Sea crisis) are falsified
• Time stop-loss
  : Set a clear holding period (e.g., 3-6 months) and re-evaluate upon expiration

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##8. Core Conclusions and Action Recommendations

###8.1 Core Conclusions

1. Structural supply-demand imbalance will continue until the first half of 2026
   : Nominal overcapacity is 7.2%, but effective capacity actually declines by6.4%

2. An inflection point is expected in the second half of 2026
   : Factors such as the Red Sea crisis and environmental regulations continue to absorb capacity, and the supply-demand relationship gradually improves

3. Valuation provides a margin of safety
   : Industry leaders have a P/E ratio in the range of5-8x, P/B close to1.0x, and limited downside risk

4. Green transformation is a long-term investment theme
   : Enterprises with first-mover advantages will enjoy valuation premiums

###8.2 Action Recommendations

: Neutral to Positive (cautious investors wait, active investors buy on dips)

:

• Conservative investors
  : 0-10% position, wait for clearer signals in Q2 2026
• Balanced investors
  :10-20% position, build positions in batches over 6-12 months
• Aggressive investors
  :20-30% position, left-side layout, bear short-term volatility

:

1. SCFI freight rate index (focus on post-Spring Festival trend)
2. Red Sea situation and Suez Canal navigation status
3. Actual new ship delivery volume in Q1/Q2 2026
4. Global manufacturing PMI and trade data

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[0] Gilin API Data - COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) financial data, stock price analysis, industry statistics

[1] Yahoo Finance - “Factbox-What are shipping companies’ plans for return to Suez Canal?” (December19,2025) - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-shipping-companies-plans-return-132220954.html

[2] Bloomberg - “Trump Tariffs, USMCA: Global Trade Poised for Rocky2026” (December24,2025) - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-24/trump-tariffs-usmca-global-trade-poised-for-rocky-2026

[3] Yahoo Finance - “Reduced demand for US retail imports to continue into2026” - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reduced-demand-us-retail-imports-122019328.html

[4] Yahoo Finance - “SCFI four major routes freight rates rise 6-10% together,有望温和上行 before the Lunar New Year” (December29,2025) - https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/

[5] Wall Street Journal - “Tariff threat forces U.S. ports to rethink upgrade plans” (December6,2025) - https://cn.wsj.com/articles/tariff-threat-forces-u-s-ports-to-rethink-upgrade-plans-3c4aeee8