Feasibility Analysis of Seres AITO's 550,000 Sales Target and Valuation Support

Now I will analyze the achievability of Seres AITO’s 550,000 sales target and its support for valuation. Based on collected market data and industry information, I will conduct a systematic analysis from multiple dimensions.

• Seres’ November 2025 monthly sales reached 58,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.34%[1]
• As of November 2025, cumulative sales were 453,100 units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.52%[1]
• AITO M7 performed strongly, with November sales reaching 25,264 units, becoming the core growth driver[2]

• If 2025 full-year sales are approximately 450,000 units, the 2026 target of 550,000 units implies a growth of about 22%
• Converted to a monthly average of approximately 45,800 units, which is lower than the current November level of 58,100 units
• Mathematically speaking, as long as the current sales momentum is maintained, the target has a high possibility of being achieved

• CMB International predicts that China’s new energy passenger vehicle retail sales will increase by 15.5% year-on-year to 14.93 million units in 2026[3]
• The market share of new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 61.8%, indicating that fuel vehicle replacement is still accelerating[3]
• Plug-in hybrid models are expected to regain growth momentum in 2026[3] — this is beneficial for AITO (focused on extended-range/plug-in hybrid)

• Huawei ADS (Advanced Driving System) intelligent driving technology will expand to more than 20 models[4]
• Huawei’s intelligent driving technology is sinking to models priced at around 200,000 yuan, expanding market coverage[4]
• HarmonyOS cockpit and ADS 3.0 form a technical moat, enhancing product differentiation competitiveness[5]

From the search results, we can see that the AITO brand has a complete new product plan:

• M6
  : New model to improve the product matrix
• M9L
  : Facelifted/long-wheelbase version of M9
• M8 Performance Version
  : Enhance M8’s product strength
• AITO Native Overseas Models
  : Expand overseas markets[6]

• M5/M7 cover the mainstream market of 250,000-350,000 yuan
• M8/M9 cover the high-end market of 400,000-600,000 yuan
• Multi-model strategy helps spread risks and improve the overall sales achievement rate

• In 2026, it will face the withdrawal of “trade-in subsidies” and “purchase tax reduction and exemption benefits”[3]
• May lead to some demand being released ahead of time by the end of 2025, putting pressure on sales in early 2026
• However, the price gap between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is narrowing, reducing subsidy dependence

• The number of new models released in 2026 will hit a record high, with competition becoming white-hot[3]
• Battery prices are expected to rise, eroding the profit margins of car companies[3]
• May need to balance between “maintaining sales volume” and “maintaining profits”

• The overall passenger vehicle market growth rate in 2026 is expected to be only 1%-3% (user background information)
• Competition within new energy vehicles is intensifying, and the concentration of leading players is increasing

• Assume an average selling price of 300,000 yuan (dominated by AITO M7/M8/M9)
• The 550,000 target corresponds to revenue of approximately 165 billion yuan
• Compared to about 135 billion yuan in 2025 (450,000 units ×300,000 yuan), an increase of about 22%

• Under the Huawei Zhixuan model, Seres mainly earns manufacturing profits
• However, economies of scale are expected to dilute fixed costs and improve profit margins
• The increased proportion of high-end models such as M9 helps improve the profit structure

• If the 22% revenue growth can be maintained and profit margins do not deteriorate
• It can support a higher P/E valuation (tech attributes + growth)
• Huawei brand endorsement brings valuation premium

• Huawei’s ADS 3.0 intelligent driving technology forms a technical moat[5]
• HarmonyOS cockpit ecosystem enhances user stickiness
• Huawei’s brand power and channel empowerment continue to be evident

• AITO’s native overseas model plan kicks off global layout[6]
• Huawei has strong brand power overseas, which is conducive to breaking into high-end markets
• However, it needs to face localization challenges in markets such as Europe

• In fierce competition, the share of leading brands is expected to increase
• The Huawei Zhixuan model may attract more car companies to cooperate, forming a platform effect

• Subsidy withdrawal in 2026 may directly impact profit margins
• If price wars intensify, gross margins will be under pressure
• The market may lower its profit forecast for 2026

• If previous stock prices have fully reflected high growth expectations
• Even if the 550,000 target is achieved, it may only be “in line with expectations” rather than “exceeding expectations”
• Higher-than-expected sales or profit margins are needed to push valuations upward

1. Strong Current Sales:
   November sales of 58,100 units show product competitiveness
2. New Energy Growth Against Trend:
   Industry growth of15.5% is far higher than the overall auto market’s1-3%
3. Improved Product Matrix:
   New models such as M6/M8/M9L continue to inject vitality
4. Huawei Technology Empowerment:
   ADS3.0 and HarmonyOS cockpit form differentiated advantages

1. Subsidy Withdrawal:
   Sales may be under pressure in early2026
2. Intensified Competition:
   Influx of new models makes price wars unavoidable
3. Base Effect:
   If demand is overdrawn in2025, high growth in2026 will be more difficult

• Optimistic scenario (60% probability): New models exceed expectations + overseas breakthrough →550k units achievable or even exceeded
• Baseline scenario (30% probability): Maintain current momentum →500k-550k units
• Risk scenario (10% probability): Intensified price war + subsidy impact →450k-500k units

1.550k target achieved and profit margins do not deteriorate
2.Increased proportion of high-end models like M9, improving ASP and profit structure
3.Breakthrough progress in overseas markets
4.The ecological value of the Huawei Zhixuan model is re-recognized by the market

1.Significant price cuts to achieve the target, sacrificing profit margins
2.Industry price wars worsen beyond expectations
3.Huawei Zhixuan model expansion is less than expected

• Cautiously Optimistic:
  The550k target has certain achievability, but need to closely monitor Q1/Q2 sales data
• Focus on Rhythm:
  Q1 after subsidy withdrawal may be a stress test period
• Key Indicators:
  Monthly sales trend, gross margin changes, new model order status

• Growth Logic:
  Huawei Zhixuan ecosystem + overseas expansion + high-endization
• Valuation Driver:
  Shift from sales-driven to profit-driven
• Core Variables:
  Can the Huawei Zhixuan model continue to expand? Can Seres maintain its core manufacturing position?

• Demand resilience after subsidy withdrawal
• Erosion of profit margins by price wars
• Internal competition in Huawei Zhixuan model (with other car companies cooperating with Huawei)
• Impact of geopolitics on overseas expansion

Since Seres’ valuation involves multiple complex variables (Huawei cooperation model, industry competition pattern, subsidy policies, etc.), it is recommended that you consider enabling the

for more in-depth analysis:

1.

Compare new forces like Li Auto, NIO, XPeng, and new energy businesses of traditional car companies like BYD and Geely
2. Build DCF valuation models based on different sales and profit margin assumptions
3. Understand real terminal demand and order status
4. The impact of rising battery costs on profits

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[0] Jinling API Data (Seres 601127.SH)
[1] Yahoo Finance - “Seres (09927) November Sales Increase by 36.34%” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/賽力斯-09927-11月銷量增長36-34-161526723.html)
[2] CleanTechnica - “Record Month for EV Sales in China!” (https://cleantechnica.com/2025/12/22/record-month-for-ev-sales-in-china/)
[3] Yahoo Finance - “CMB International: China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales to Rise 15.5% YoY in 2026” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/招銀國際-料2026年新能源乘用車零售銷售量將年增15-5-024059520.html)
[4] Nikkei Asia - “Huawei’s self-driving tech expands to mass-market vehicles in China” (https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/huawei-s-self-driving-tech-expands-to-mass-market-vehicles-in-china)
[5] AITO Brand Image Resources - HarmonyOS Intelligent Travel and HarmonyOS Cockpit Display
[6] AITO New Model Image Resources - M8, M9L, M6 New Model Plans

This analysis is based on public web search results and brokerage API data. Some financial data cannot be fully obtained due to API restrictions. It is recommended to cross-verify with the company’s official financial reports and latest announcements.