Zijin Mining 2026 Profitability Analysis and Earnings Forecast Report

Zijin Mining’s profitability in 2026 is expected to achieve dual support of “high growth + enhanced elasticity”:

• Under the
  neutral scenario
  (average prices of copper, gold, and lithium are 11,500 USD/ton, 5,000 USD/oz, and 120,000 CNY/ton respectively, with production meeting planned targets), the expected net profit attributable to parent company shareholders is approximately
  75 billion yuan
  , an increase of about 36% from the 2025 base of 55-56 billion yuan[0].
• Under the
  optimistic scenario
  (copper price above 13,000 USD/ton, gold price above 5,500 USD/oz, lithium price at 150,000 CNY/ton, production achievement rate of 105%), profits can approach
  90 billion yuan
  , but breaking the 100-billion-yuan threshold still requires an extreme combination of high prices and high production[0].
• The
  conservative scenario
  (slightly lower prices and production) can maintain a range of 65-70 billion yuan, which is below 100 billion yuan but still has elasticity compared to the current valuation[0].

Reaching the

requires copper prices to stay above 13,000 USD/ton, gold prices close to 5,500 USD/oz, lithium prices at 150,000 CNY/ton, full ramp-up of project production, and continuous marginal expansion of other metals. This means a “double high” dependence on metal prices and production launch rhythm, hence the probability is estimated to be around [0].

1. Copper Production and Price Dual Drive
   • Production increments come from the full ramp-up of projects such as Julong Copper Mine Phase II, Kamoa Copper Mine Phase III/IV, Juno Copper Mine, and Timok Copper-Gold Mine in 2026, with expected mined copper capacity reaching 1.26 million tons.
   • On the demand side, driven by three major trends: AI data centers, electric vehicles, and grid upgrades, the refined copper gap in 2026 is estimated by multiple investment banks to be between 400,000 and 600,000 tons, with the copper price center in the range of 11,500-13,000 USD/ton (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS, etc., all maintain an upward expectation)[1].
   • Combined with cost advantages and tax rate advantages (Julong: 9%, Serbia:15%, overall ~17%), the copper business remains the profit “engine”[0].

2. “Explosive” Growth of Gold Mine Layout
   • Projects such as Haiyu Gold Mine, Zijinshan Gold Mine expansion and renovation, Aurora expansion, and new African gold mines will drive mined gold production from 85 tons to 110 tons.
   • In terms of price, factors such as safe-haven sentiment, central bank gold purchases, and expected weakening of the US dollar will still push gold prices above 5,000 USD/oz (institutions expect it to be around 4,900-5,200 USD/oz by the end of 2026, with some extreme expectations even looking at 6,000 USD)[2].
   • The dual increase in production and price makes the gold business the second new engine of profit[0].

3. Lithium Business Enters Slow Recovery Track
   • Production planning is increased from 100,000 tons to 130,000 tons, with new capacity concentrated in Argentina’s 3Q, Lagoucuo Salt Lake, and African lithium mines, and costs are at a global low.
   • Multiple institutions believe that lithium supply and demand will shift from surplus to tight balance in 2026, with the price center moving up to 100,000-150,000 CNY/ton[3].
   • Although the proportion is still limited, the highly elastic price brings obvious marginal improvement[0].

4. Cyclical Recovery of Other Metals (Silver, Zinc-Lead, Molybdenum)
   • Associated silver, zinc-lead, molybdenum, etc., although their individual contributions are limited, form an amplification effect under the high growth of core copper and gold businesses, maintaining a stable profit base of 8-10 billion yuan[0].

Certainty Level	Key Factors	Impact on Profit
High Certainty	Commissioning of Julong Phase II, Kamoa/Juno/Cu projects, Haiyu Gold Mine commissioning, tax rate advantages	Form the basic guarantee for 2026 profit growth, indicating a solid profit base[0]
Medium Certainty	Copper/gold/lithium prices in expected range, production achievement rate, cost control	Determine the profit fluctuation range between 65-90 billion yuan[0]
Low Certainty/Risks	Significant global economic downturn, geopolitical shocks, strong US dollar, unexpected price drop	If triggered simultaneously, profits may drop below 60 billion yuan, making the 100-billion-yuan target harder to achieve

1. Price Risk
   : If copper prices remain below 11,000 USD/ton or gold prices fall back to 4,500 USD/oz, the optimistic scenario will be difficult to sustain[1][2].
2. Capacity Ramp-up
   : Overseas projects such as Kamoa and Juno are affected by the pandemic and supply chain issues; production achievement rates still need to be monitored.
3. Macro and Geopolitics
   : If the global economy weakens or the US dollar rebounds, metal demand (especially copper and lithium) may weaken again, restricting profit elasticity.
4. Policy and Taxation
   : If the tax rate advantage is affected by policy adjustments or tax base revaluation of overseas projects, there is a risk of net profit margin shrinkage (current overall ~17%)[0].

• Current market capitalization: 948.3 billion HKD (equivalent to ~872.4 billion CNY), stock price:35.74 HKD, PE ratio ~19.3x, ROE:30.6%[0].
• Based on the neutral scenario’s 2026 net profit of75 billion yuan, the PE ratio converted at the current exchange rate is≈12.6x, and the PEG is expected to be less than1, which is in the “steady growth + low valuation” range[0].
• The DCF model gives a reasonable value of42.25 HKD for the neutral scenario (+18% from current), and 66.29 HKD for the optimistic scenario, which can be regarded as a supportive reference[0].

• Profitability Judgment
  : Under the current production planning and price expectations, Zijin Mining’s 2026 profits will rise steadily, seemingly expected to maintain the range of65-90 billion yuan, but breaking the 100-billion-yuan threshold requires simultaneous “explosion” of prices and production, hence the probability is about30%.
• Investment Recommendation
  : If the metal price cycle continues to support and there are no major delays in project progress, the valuation has upside potential; holdings can be maintained above35.7 HKD, with focus on copper prices, gold prices, lithium prices, and capacity realization rhythm.
• In-depth Research Recommendation
  : To further confirm the possibility of reaching 100 billion yuan, an in-depth research mode can be enabled to obtain more detailed project progress, quarterly production of each mineral, cost breakdowns, and tax models, and continuously calibrate the 2026 profit path.

[0] Brokerage API data (including real-time stock price, market capitalization, valuation, financial indicators, DCF valuation, and profit scenario analysis)
[1] “International Copper Price Hits Record High, Will It Continue to Rise?” - Financial Client (https://www.mycaijing.com/article/detail/561161?source_id=40)
[2] “Multiple Institutions Expect USD Assets to Be Less Attractive in 2026, Gold Prices to Continue Rising” - Xinhuanet (http://www.news.cn/world/20251225/612ade0c0c144e45bc112ce50c25edae/c.html)
[3] “‘V-shaped Reversal’ Breeds Recovery Hope, Lithium Carbonate Supply-Demand Improvement Near in 2026” - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2025-12-23/doc-inhcuunf6763956.shtml)